Russia's war on Ukraine was anticipated by experts to be a short one, ending with the capitulation of Kyiv.
That has not happened. Ukraine has shown ferocious resistance, and there are widespread reports of Russian troops withdrawing from central Ukraine, shifting all their might to the east.
What is the current situation in the most important cities? Where does the Russian campaign stand? Are sanctions having the desired effect? Here's how things stand after over 40 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What's Happening Across Ukraine?
Kyiv
The UK Ministry of Defence stated on Monday that fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian forces to the north of capital would "diminish significantly" this week.
The announcement came in the backdrop of Ukraine retaking most of the area surrounding Kyiv.
US intel has also stated that Russia had withdrawn about two-thirds of its forces from around Kyiv. The Kremlin had announced something similar a few days ago.
The US did, however, warn that many of the withdrawn troops were regrouping in Belarus and were expected to be redeployed in the east.
Bucha
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 4 April visited the town of Bucha, where 410 bodies were discovered after Russian forces withdrew from the area.
Russia has denied any role in the alleged massacre, calling it "another production by the Kyiv regime for the Western media."
United States President Joe Biden called Vladimir Putin a "war criminal" and asked for a "war crimes trial" over the killings in the town of Bucha.
Mariupol
Two women survivors from Mariupol have stated that Russian forces are sending Ukrainian citizens to "filtration camps" before forcibly deporting them to Russian territory.
Drone footage showing the catastrophic destruction of the port city went viral on social media.
Nearly 5,000 people, including about 210 children, have died since Russian forces invaded it a month ago, according to the city's authorities, Reuters reported.
Ukrainian authorities stated just over a week ago that they feared around 300 people dead in the bombing of the Donetsk Regional Drama Theatre.
After a partial ceasefire was declared on 30 March to allow civilian evacuations from the besieged city, Kyiv sent dozens of buses to safely get civilians out.
There have been accusations, however, that Russian troops were not allowing rescue efforts to take place. Click here to read about why Mariupol is so important to Russia.
Kharkiv:
The Russian assault on Kharkiv, in northeast Ukraine continues. The local prosecutor stated over the weekend that seven people had died and 34 were wounded after Russian forces targeted a residential area in the second largest city of the country.
The city that is home to 1.4 million people has been relentlessly bombed by Russian forces over the past few weeks.
Human Rights Watch has documented cases of rape, executions, beatings, and looting carried out by Russian troops in the city.
An Indian student had lost his life in shelling on 1 March due to the intense shelling.
According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, in regions like Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zhytomyr, there have been 1,951 casualties (949 killed and 1,002 injured).
The Refugee Crisis
The Numbers
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of 3 April, 4,215,047 people have fled Ukraine.
Where They Are Going
Most of them are fleeing to Poland, while many are also going to Romania and Moldova. In fact, Poland has received more refugees than all other countries combined.
Refugees Facing Racism
Many Indians and Africans, especially students, suffered racist treatment at the Polish-Ukrainian border.
Even the the UN has acknowledged that non-European refugees have faced discrimination while trying to flee the war-torn country.
Reports of Sexual Violence and Trafficking
European media outlets have reported that women and girls fleeing Ukraine are being raped in areas where they sought refuge.
Ukrainian women are also alleging rape and sexual assault by Russian soldiers while escaping the country
On 27 March, Ukrainian MP Maria Mezentseva stated that a Russian soldier had allegedly raped a Ukrainian woman in front of her child in Kyiv.
The Sanctions and Their Effect on Russia
The Latest
The US, along with EU countries are preparing to slap further sanctions on Russia after the emergence of horrific evidence of war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine's Bucha.
Germany's Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht has said the EU must discuss a ban on Russian gas imports.
The Olaf Scholz government on 22 February pulled the plug on Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline that would have stretched from Russia to Germany spanning 764 miles.
The US recently banned oil imports from Russia. Details regarding the first wave of sanctions imposed by the West can be found here.
How It Affects Russian Society
Consumer prices have drastically increased, especially in the case of good items.
Not only have Russian banks been removed from SWIFT, but services like Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Apple, and Google Pay have restricted their services in Russia. More on that can be found here.
Experts say that due to the reduction of dollars in Russia's foreign reserves, the economy may be able to survive the impact of sanctions for a long time.
How the War Has Affected India
Evacuation of Indian Students
Around 23,000 Indian nationals, mostly students, were evacuated from Ukraine during the Indian government's Operation Ganga, including from cities like Kharkiv and Sumy.
Response to Ukraine Invasion
India has not joined the widespread condemnation of Russia's actions in Ukraine. It has abstained from multiple votes in the United Nations denouncing the Russian invasion.
Discounted Oil
Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that India will continue buying cheap Russian oil because "India's overall interest is what is kept in mind."
US Warning to India
The US Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics Daleep Singh, warned India a few days ago against constructing any payment mechanism with the Kremlin, which undermines the coordinated sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.
Moscow sees New Delhi as a key ally to set up an alternative trade-financial channels by promoting a local-local currency payment system (the rupee-for-rouble trade).
This will help Russia-India trade avoid dealing in the dollar. Click here to read about that in more detail.
A Recap
The Early Warnings
In December, US intel warned that an estimated 1,00,000 Russian troops had assembled within striking distance of the Ukraine's borders.
NATO and Russia engaged in talks but failed to reach a diplomatic resolution.
Russia had two key demands: A guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO; and the removal of NATO troops and infrastructure from European countries that joined after 1997
The First Move
Then, Russian President Vladimir Putin on 21 February recognised two breakaway rebel regions – Donetsk and Luhansk – in eastern Ukraine as independent states.
He instructed Russian troops to assume "the function of peacekeeping" in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which were at the time self-declared people's republics consisting of rebels fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.
The Invasion
On 24 February, Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine. That was the beginning of the Russian invasion.
Minutes after the special operation was announced, different part of the country were hit by missiles and airstrikes, including the capital Kyiv.
A ground invasion was also launched from three sides – from Belarus in the north, from the Donbas in the east, and from Crimea in the south.
The Justification:
Putin accused NATO countries of "supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine."
He also promised to "bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation."
Ukraine's response:
The military and the people have mounted a ferocious resistance to the Russian troops, with the latter arming themselves with Molotov cocktails.
Kyiv has been demanding humanitarian corridors during talks with Moscow.
President Zelenskyy on 28 February officially signed an EU membership application for Ukraine but acknowledged on 15 March that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO.
President Zelenskyy has been making passionate appeals to audiences in the west (like the US Congress or the 64th Annual Grammy Awards) for military support, and in particular, a no-fly zone.
While that request has been repeatedly refused by the US and by NATO, Ukraine has managed to maintain control of its skies.
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