Maldives Election: Muizzu's Win, 'India Out' & What it Means for Bilateral Ties

In a result that came as a shock to many, the party of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu – who has publicly postured himself as 'anti-India' and 'pro-China' – won a staggering majority in the country's parliamentary elections.As per the latest results, Muizzu's People's National Congress (PNC) has won 66 out of 86 seats, with counting still on in six seats. This gives the party a powerful majority exceeding two-thirds of the House.The Ibrahim Mohamed Solih-led Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) – which had condemned Muizzu's 'India Out' election plank in the run-up to polls – has won just 12 seats so far and is headed towards one of its worst defeats ever.With his position secure in both the executive and the Majlis (Parliament), did Muizzu's anti-India stance have a role to play in the emphatic victory? Where do ties between New Delhi and Male go from here? The Quint analyses with the help of experts.Will Katchatheevu Regress Into a Situation Akin to the Maldives or Nepal?According to some experts, not only was Muizzu's anti-India campaign a determining factor in the election, but it was actually the foremost factor that contributed towards the result."Muizzu's victory is a vindication of his anti-India stance," senior journalist SNM Abdi told The Quint. "The election was fought on a geopolitical plank and was focused on the Maldives' foreign policy. In my opinion, geopolitics edged out domestic politics in this election."After winning the presidential election in September last year – also fought on an anti-India plank – Muizzu had set in motion several enactments against India's interests. In January 2024, he asked the Indian government to withdraw its 80-odd military personnel stationed in the country for humanitarian purposes and announced 10 May as the deadline for the same.In the same month, ties between India and the Maldives slid to a great extent after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's endorsement of Lakshadweep as a tourist destination.The visit was viewed by many in the Maldives as a bid by the Indian government to portray Lakshadweep as an alternative tourist spot to the island nation – leading to condemnation from not only Maldivian citizens but also top ministers in Muizzu's Cabinet. "The endorsement of Lakshadweep by Modi was completely unnecessary, and the entire issue backfired," Abdi said. "Instead of trying to settle scores with Male, the Indian government should have sanctioned money to build infrastructure in Lakshadweep, which isn't even a patch on the Maldives."SNM AbdiThree Maldivian ministers were suspended for allegedly making insulting comments against PM Modi on social media. Hours later, the Maldivian government stated that the views expressed by the ministers were their own and did not represent the government's stand. However, the damage to India's image among the Maldives' general public was already done – and seeds to further nourish Muizzu's India Out campaign ahead of the parliamentary elections were sown.Similarly, Muizzu's dependence on hardline Islamic organisations like the Jamiyyathul Salaf for the furtherance of political goals has incentivised him to portray an anti-India stance. Intolerance against India was witnessed in June 2022 as well when a mob of around 150 protesters disrupted a Yoga Day event organised by the Indian High Commission in Male and vandalised property at the venue.India's Indian Ocean Quagmire: The Growing Warmth Between China and the MaldivesWith this election win, the numbers show that Muizzu has gained enough political muscle to press on with his legislation without facing a brick wall in the Majlis. Before the election, Muizzu's PNC was a part of a coalition which was in the minority in the House. Hence, even though Muizzu held the top political post in the country, he was unable to pass several laws because he lacked the numbers. Gaining control of the Majlis, thus, is extremely significant as the House will no longer have the power to impede executive decisions taken by his government."Muizzu received a mandate to keep doing what he’s been doing. I don’t see it as pro-China or anti-India – it's more an effort to bring more balance to the two relationships," Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC, told The Quint.Further, the PNC's win is as much a public endorsement of Muizzu's 'India Out' policies as it is a condemnation of the MDP's 'India First' policies."It's a big win for Muizzu given that his political opponents had been pillorying him for the very position of 'India Out'. Clearly the opposition view failed to gain traction with the public," Kugelman added.In terms of the geopolitics in South Asia, the election result is a major diplomatic victory for China as well.Muizzu in January this year had awarded several contracts to China in the areas of infrastructure and agriculture and had signed as many as 20 agreements – including one on solidifying greater cooperation regarding Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. Shortly after his win in last year's presidential polls, Muizzu also made a state visit to China to hold talks with President Xi Jinping. On his return, he said, while addressing the press, "We may be small, but this doesn't give them the license to bully us." While he did not name India, the statement was seen as a retort against the Modi government.'India to Remove Troops from Maldives by 10 May': President Muizzu in ParliamentDespite unsettling ties between the neighbouring countries, experts believe that the Maldives cannot afford to entirely go the anti-India route. However, going forward, India will have to closely measure every decision related to the Maldives and shed its 'Big Brother' approach to the island nation in order to soften the hardened ties. "India has to tread very carefully: It cannot be provocative or aggressive and has to be generous and helpful. That is the only way to win back the Maldives," Abdi said.Extending an olive branch to India in April, Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer hailed New Delhi's decision to renew the quota for essential commodities that the island nation imports from India. The Modi government's renewal marked the highest approved quantities for trade since 1981. Similarly, Muizzu had publicly acknowledged India's financial aid to the Maldives last month, saying that India will always remain the Maldives' "closest ally". According to Kugelman, India's best bet to improve ties with the Maldives is to form a partnership centred around humanitarian and economic cooperation – that shows that the relationship can benefit the country outside the sphere of defence. "If done with the right diplomacy, Indian actions can soften that hostile public sentiment, and reinvigorate the people-to-people ties that have stood out as a comparative advantage for New Delhi in Maldives relative to China, which doesn’t have that type of connect. That’s a net benefit for India in its competition with China."Michael KugelmanWhile India will undoubtedly have to take a softer approach in dealing with the Maldives, it cannot be denied that the country is a dominant power in South Asia and has an overarching presence. Not only that, the Maldives lies merely 70 nautical miles from the Indian coast. Hence, alienating itself from India is not a politically or economically smart option for Male either. "India should remember that the population of the Maldives is less than a million. In comparison, many Indian parliamentary constituencies comprise 1.5 to 2 million people. Given the vast asymmetry, there is something fundamentally wrong with India's foreign policy if it is unable to manage the Maldives well."SNM AbdiNo, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu Was Not Attacked Inside the Parliament

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Maldives Election: Muizzu's Win, 'India Out' & What it Means for Bilateral Ties

"The election was focused on Maldives' foreign policy. Geopolitics has edged out domestic politics," said an expert.