The Sharifs Rise Still: With New PM Announced, a Political Win-Win in Pakistan| OPINION

Who would have thought that the wily Nawaz Sharif could have any familial connection with the legendary and undefeated wrestler, 'The Great Gama’? The instinctive disbelief is validated when one realises that Nawaz Sharif bears no DNA of the illustrious Rustom-e-Hind, but instead, the legend happens to be the grandfather of Nawaz Sharif’s late wife, Kulsoom Nawaz Sharif.As far as Nawaz’s own gene pool is concerned, there is a telling irony in the word Ittefaq or Unity, as the foundational name of the business group of the powerful Sharif family in Pakistan. While the initial Ittefaq or unity amongst the six other brothers of Muhammad Sharif (father of Nawaz and Shehbaz) ensured much commercial success in the early years, the inevitable fight for control and spoils by the over hundred offspring saw a disunity and split of the Ittefaq empire.Meanwhile, New Delhi is watching the developments from the sidelines, as it recognises the complex dynamics of Pakistani politics, rather well. Both the Sharif brothers are well-known entities, as are their antecedents and compulsions, going forward. Prime Minister Modi has issued a perfunctory welcome on X, “Congratulations to @CMShehbaz on being sworn in as the Prime Minister of Pakistan." The statement is a lot pithier when compared to the first time Shahbaz Sharif had become PM of Pakistan, when Modi had further added, “India desires peace and stability in a region free of terror, so that we can focus on our development challenges and ensure the well-being and prosperity of our people."Not this time, as he too recognises the limitations of this coalition 'prop’ and therefore, the need to manage expectations of the Pakistani government, even in India.Nawaz Sharif's Return: Pakistan is Unlikely to Break Out of Its Praetorian TrapIttefaq’s commercial split notwithstanding, Muhammad Sharif’s direct lineage was decidedly smarter in that they started ingratiating themselves into the dingy political 'system’ of the 80s. But in a hardbound Pakistan, the dice was firmly rolled against the Sharifs to succeed, as certain societal 'markers’ were missing in their familial credentials – Sharifs simply had to maneuver, appropriate, posture, and manipulate in order to succeed.Essentially of Kashmiri origin (Butts from Anantnag), Nawaz Sharif upped his adopted Punjabiyat quotient and proximity to the military 'establishment’ (even though, Sharifs was a family bereft of any martial traditions) to appeal to the two main power centers in Pakistan ie, Punjab and Pakistan Military. The prefixed honorific of Mian to his name added the subtle touch of majoritarian religiosity – a telling addition and tick in the box when pitted against the ‘lesser’ Shiite Bhutto clans.Pakistan’s New Government: Crown of Thorns and 'Family Business’ As ShowrunnersPakistani political landscape was always dominated by feudal landlords or Vadheras, whereas Sharifs were part of the garish nouveau riche or ‘new money’. As a stark counter, they modeled themselves on a contrarian template. If Bhuttos were urbane and sophisticated, Sharifs were earthy and provincial in their appeal. Bhuttos were left-of-center, the Sharifs were right-of-center. Bhuttos were liberal, Sharifs chose a more conservative aesthetic to appeal to the heartland with religious flourishes. If Bhuttos had a traditional beef with the Military 'establishment’ (with Generals Ayub, Yahya, and Zia-ul-haq), Sharif sprung from the protectorate of Zia-ul-Haq. Marriage preferences of the Sharifs reflected a certain aspirational tonality, as Nawaz Sharif’s daughter was to marry a military man ie, Captain Safdar Awan, and Shahbaz Sharif was to marry Tehmina Durrani (of the ‘My Feudal Lord’ fame). Shehbaz adopted a faux sartorial sense of a Brown Saheb with Hunter-Shirts with epaulettes et al. Lastly for good measure and phonetics, his party was called Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), reminiscent of the Muslim League of Qaid-e-Azam, Muhammad Ali Jinnah. The Sharifs were constantly embellishing their nativist, societal, and political moves with some deft evolution.Have Pakistani Politicians Realised the Repercussions of Reckless Religiosity?Importantly, the heir legatee of the dark Shariaized Zia-ul-Haq era was not yet another Military General from Rawalpindi GHQ, but the plump and portly businessman in Nawaz Sharif, an antithesis in the form of a trading Kashmiri Arain origin family in the land dominated by Punjabi-Pathan braggadocio. All the while Sharifs had to tiptoe the heavily mined land of unhinged ambitions in the form of unprofessional Generals, bigoted clergy, unscrupulous politicians, and the normalised amorality that composes the governance of the tinderbox called 'Pakistan'.Nawaz Sharif was, and is, the quintessential survivor. Neither Nawaaz (attractive), nor Sharif (simple), he has managed to emerge as the longest-serving Prime Minister of Pakistan for 9 years, with three terms (1990-93, 1997-99, and 2013-17).This does not include the tenures of another couple of years by his loyal proxies like Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Shehbaz Sharif, as legal technicalities debarred Nawaz Sharif from taking over Prime Ministership, formally.Who Is Shehbaz Sharif, PML-N Leader Elected as Pakistan PM for 2nd Time?Today, yet again Nawaz Sharif has weaseled his way in a very non-triumphant manner by joining hands with traditional rivals ie, Pakistan People Party (PPP) of the Bhuttos, as necessitated and 'arranged’ by the Pakistani Military to keep out its current nemesis, Imran Khan, from assuming power. The archetypical politician who has mastered the art of survival is wise enough to bury the hatchet and assume power, albeit, with brother Shehbaz Sharif as the Prime Minister. Not taking any chances of any internal family putsch, he has cleverly positioned his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, to take over the most populous and relevant state of Punjab, as Chief Minister.While basking in the topical glow of the Pakistani Military’s 'selection’, Nawaz would know better than to believe the permanence of the current thaw with the Military. In 2018, the same Military ‘establishment’ had cast a strangulating web and ousted Nawaz Sharif’s party and 'selected’ (for all practical purposes) the Imran Khan-led PTI. That the smug Imran would foolishly outgrow the required sense of obligation to the Military would result in his own ousting, and result in bringing back the much-discredited lot of Sharifs and Bhuttos to power, in a quaint replay of Russian roulette, that is Pakistani politics.Pakistan: PTI-Backed Independents May Ace Elections, but What Remains of Imran?Nawaz Sharif is certainly more experienced with the cold ways of the Pakistani ‘establishment’ as opposed to the theatrical grandstanding of Imran, as history serves Nawaz some important lessons. The most important lesson is that all three times that Nawaz has been bumped out of office, was when he fell out of favour with the Military. Secondly, for all his political experience, he has gone horribly wrong with each of the six Army Chiefs that he personally selected earlier under the misplaced assumption of loyalty (often by superseding other senior claimants) ie, Generals Waheed Kakar, Jehangir Karamat, Pervez Musharaf, Pervez Kayani, Raheel Sharif and Qamar Bajwa, as each one of them turned out to be their own man! While the seventh Army Chief selected with the blessings of Nawaz Sharif is the current General Asim Munir – the 'redlines’ for the space afforded to Nawaz Sharif to operate within, seem already drawn.The call to formally anoint Shehbaz Sharif instead of Nawaz himself, can attributed to a wise decision given Shehbaz’s healthier working equation with the Generals, as opposed to the rocky one with Nawaz, personally in the past. Also, given the looming socio-economic crisis which will insist on some ‘hard decisions’ (unlikely to be popular with the masses), as also the natural awkwardness of working with coalition partners and the accompanying jostling – Nawaz would be insulated, protected, and always be a backup choice in case a window-dressed reshuffle of faces is required.It is an arrangement that works well for Nawaz, Shahbaz, Maryam, Bhuttos (Asif Zardari is bound to return as the President), and above all, the Military. Nawaz will effectively control the political and civilian reins, even if the real powers will remain vested with the Rawalpindi GHQ.(The author is a Former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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The Sharifs Rise Still: With New PM Announced, a Political Win-Win in Pakistan

Nawaz Sharif has weaseled his way in a very non-triumphant manner by joining hands with rivals – PPP of the Bhuttos.

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Topics: Imran Khan Nawaz Sharif Pakistan Army