Once again, Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the ramparts of the Red Fort on 15 August to launch a broadside against the dynasty culture, or phenomenon in India. Along with corruption and "appeasement”, he cited dynastic politics as the three reasons that are holding India back.
Prior to 2014, he used to describe the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre as the “Delhi Sultanate” and Rahul Gandhi as “Shehzada” during election rallies.
The words have changed over the years; but the message is still the same: the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is determined to finish dynasty politics in the country once and for all.
Dynasty Politics Continue To Rage On
Two full majority mandates in 2014 and 2019 where Modi was picked against Rahul are repeatedly used by Modi fans to claim how their hero has vanquished dynasty politics. Even some seasoned commentators have been suckered into this con; arguing that the young and restless voters of this digital era have no time and patience for entitled dynasts.
Some have even pointed out the fading magic of "dynasty” stars like Salman Khan & Amir Khan as further evidence that "New India” is no longer willing to reward dynasties with adulation or votes. So has Modi been successful in weaning away Indian voters from "Parivar” and "Parivar Jan”?
If you look at data provided by the Election Commission of India, one thing becomes very clear: the hypothesis that dynasties are dying in Indian politics is sheer nonsense. Ten years is a long enough time to assess if a mission has been successful or not.
Narendra Modi launched his defeat dynasties mission in earnest in 2013. A decade later, the only two successful battles he has won are the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
In almost every other election where a dynasty or dynast has been a rival, the BJP has either lost or failed to decimate dynasties even where it has won.
As a matter of fact, electoral data over the last two decades suggests that the young and restless voters of this digital era do vote for dynasts. And New India continues to reward dynasties with adulation and votes. In fact, political parties that have not promoted dynasties are becoming irrelevant even as dynasts laugh their way to vote banks.
How Dynast-Driven Parties Have Performed Across India
Many commentators have already pointed out how sons, daughters, cousins, and spouses of BJP leaders have been contesting elections and creating their own 'mini dynasties'. Two prominent ones are the erstwhile Royal family of Gwalior – the Scindias and the inheritors of the legacy of the late Gopinath Munde.
Since so much has already been written about this phenomenon, there is no need to repeat it here. One can even accept the argument put forth by the BJP supporters that the "BJP dynasts” do not automatically reach the top as a matter of entitlement.
Leaving that aside, what does electoral data say about how well or poorly dynasty-driven parties have done in the elections? A quick journey through some states will provide a clear picture.
In Tamil Nadu, DMK is an unabashed dynasty-driven party. The original patriarch M Karunanidhi was the chief minister from 2006 to 2011 and then passed on the party throne to his younger son MK Stalin. His daughter Kanimozhi and their cousins the Marans form the bedrock of the dynasty. Stalin narrowly missed out on winning the 2016 Assembly Elections. But he led the DMK-led alliance to a massive and sweeping victory in the 2021 elections. With the main rival AIDMK in disarray, Stalin could well win again the next time.
Now look at Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. In the former, the dynast Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy decisively defeated his rival N Chandrababu Naidu who is another dynast. In Telangana, the patriarch K C Rao has won two consecutive elections and has already started the process of handing over the party to his son and daughter. In Maharashtra, despite repeated revolts, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena is still acknowledged by ordinary voters as the real Shiv Sena founded by patriarch Balasaheb Thackeray. His grandson Aditya is all set to take over. In NCP, a war of succession in the Pawar dynasty is going on.
Whoever wins the battle; the dynasty will stay. In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik has won so many elections that he has become a phenomenon by himself. But voters in Odisha originally chose him because he was the son of the legendary Biju Patnaik.
In West Bengal, Abhishek Banerjee is all set to take over the reins of the party TMC from his aunt Mamata Bannerjee. In Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot, another dynast, will be the future face of the Rajasthan Congress. In Haryana, when the BJP failed to win a majority in the assembly elections in 2019, it was a dynast called Dushyant Chauthala who rescued the BJP.
In Jharkhand, the dynast Hemant Soren is the chief minister. In Bihar, dynast Tejasvi Yadav is the de facto chief minister and will almost certainly be located as chief minister in 2025. In Uttar Pradesh, despite the towering presence of Modi & Yogi, Akhilesh Yadav could again become chief minister as and when anti-incumbency against the BJP sets in.
Now look at parties that did not aggressively promote dynasties. Once a mighty force in Assam, the Assam Gana Parishad is now a small ally of the BJP. In Tamil Nadu, since the late Jayalalitha had no dynasty to prop up, her party AIDMK has been in free fall since her death. Mayawati does have a nephew but failed to promote him the way Mamata Banerjee has done with hers.
The BSP too is in free fall. And, analysts are certain that with Naveen Patnaik leaving behind no anointed family member as successor, his party BJD will go the AIDMK way once his innings are over.
As electoral rhetoric, targeting “parivar jan” does score brownie points. But then, the same system continues to thrive; for whatever reasons sociologists and political economy pundits may analyse.
The incomplete list of thriving “parivar jan” includes M K Stalin and his son Uday Kumar Stalin, Uddhav & Aditya Thackeray, Ajit Pawar & Supriya Sule, K T Rao, and K Kavitha, Jyotir Aditya Scindia & Vasundhara Scindia, Abhishek Banerjee, Dushyant Chauthala and Deepenider Hooda, Sachin Pilot, Omar Abdullah & Mehbooba Mufti, Sukhbir Singh Badal and Harsimrat Kaur Badal, Gaurav Gogoi, Jayant Sinha…
Interestingly, many of these “parivar jans” are doing well in the BJP. Now, would you still say that Modi & the BJP have vanquished political dynasties in India?
(Sutanu Guru is the Executive Director of the CVoter Foundation. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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