Israel’s campaign in Gaza is standing on the edge of a knife.
On one hand, Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to insist that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will attack Rafah, the last area of the Gaza enclave that now houses over a million people displaced by the military operations in the north. President Biden had warned earlier in March that an attack on Rafah would be crossing the red line drawn by the US.
But Netanyahu insists that the objectives sought by Israel will not be met without eliminating the remnants of the Hamas forces in Rafah.
Last week, in the wake of the killings of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers, President Biden had again warned Netanyahu that US policy would be determined by the “concrete” and “measurable” steps that Israel takes to address the issue of civilian deaths in Gaza.
Earlier on 25 March, symptomatic of the US unhappiness, Washington allowed a UN Security Council Resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire to pass without using its veto. Washington has backtracked on some of its warnings, but major collateral casualties and destruction could well push Biden to take a firm stand on Israel at last.
Meanwhile, the IDF claims that they have destroyed Hamas’ military capabilities in six months of fighting and “victory was within reach.” They have more or less terminated their operations in Gaza for the time being, reducing their forces to just about three brigades, while earlier they deployed three divisions.
They have also pulled out of Khan Younis, another southern city which has also been almost completely destroyed. That this action was followed by Hamas raining rockets on Israel signals that the war is unlikely to end right now, because it retains significant military capacity including, some four battalions, which are now concentrated in Rafah.
The Khan Younis battle that began on 1 December saw a major Israeli military operation which killed some 3,000 Hamas fighters by their estimate. But it has also seen significant Israeli casualties in incidents like that on 24 January when some 21 Israeli soldiers were killed in an explosion in the deadliest day for the IDF since the beginning of the invasion. On 7 April, the Israelis announced their withdrawal from the city.
Both Israel and its prime minister are at a difficult juncture right now though their perspectives are not necessarily aligned.
Israel’s challenge is to attain its primary objective—the complete destruction of Hamas’ military capacity and ensuring that it does not ever revive. This is already proving difficult because of the requirement from the international community and their mentor, the US, that their operation on Rafah is conducted with minimal civilian casualties. With some million plus refugees milling around the area, what kind of an operation can the IDF conduct?
The free-for-all style they adopted in the beginning of their assault on Gaza which killed more than 30,000 people and destroyed most of the northern half of the enclave is probably no longer viable. It has resulted in refugees crowding in the south and another military operation will result in tens of thousands more dead unless the Israelis find a way of changing the way their operation is conducted.
Then, there is the issue of bringing back the remaining 130-odd hostages. For the past few months, talks were being held between Israel and Hamas in the presence of Qatari, American and Egyptian officials to work out a deal to seek their release in exchange for a temporary ceasefire.
Domestic pressure on Netanyahu on the issue of hostages remains high—large sections of the Israeli population want a deal for their release, while his right-wing allies demand that he complete the military operation.
For Hamas, the hapless hostages are a means of extricating themselves from their self-created predicament. According to sources, while there has been some progress in the negotiations, things are at a standstill with respect to Hamas' demand that the refugees be allowed to return home to the north. It is also demanding a deal that ultimately yields a permanent ceasefire.
For Netanyahu, prolonging the conflict or leaving it in limbo indefinitely is a means of political survival, just as is his need for the continuing support of the 13-strong group of extreme-right Israeli MPs. A protest movement demanding his resignation has grown and there are visible cracks in his war cabinet where senior Opposition leader Benny Gantz of the National Unity Party has demanded elections by September.
Netanyahu’s right-wing allies insist that he continue the Gaza campaign knowing that if he goes into Rafah, the chances of a deal for the hostages will evaporate. They are putting out the threat that if he does not, he will lose their support and his government will collapse.
As of now, Netanyahu insists, as he did last Monday, that the Rafah invasion will take place because complete victory over Hamas can only be guaranteed by the elimination of the four remaining Hamas battalions. “This will happen, there is a date,” he insisted.
All this does not even factor in the larger Israeli challenge of what to do with Gaza after they eliminate Hamas militarily. Who will run the place? Who will guarantee law and order there?
The Israelis and the Americans no longer trust the United Nations to the job. They think they can get the Egyptians or the Palestinian Authority to take up the task. But in the current circumstances, this looks like a fantasy.
There should be no doubt that the massive destruction the Israelis have wreaked on the enclave will leave generational grievance and bitterness which will continue to fuel Israeli insecurity well into the future, unless more imaginative and compassionate policies are put in place.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)