Sangrur Bypoll: Can Moose Wala Murder Harm AAP or Did Opposition Miss a Chance?

Sangrur bypoll seemed to be a cakewalk for AAP until Sidhu Moose Wala's murder. But Opposition disunity may help it.

The battle lines are drawn for the bypoll to the Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency in Punjab due for 23 June. This will be the first major electoral test for the Aam Aadmi Party which came to power in the state with a massive majority in the Assembly elections earlier this year.

The major candidates are:

• Gurmail Singh - Aam Aadmi Party

• Simranjit Singh Mann - Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar)

• Dalvir Singh Goldy - Congress

• Kamaldeep Kaur Rajoana - Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal)

• Kewal Singh Dhillon - BJP

The bypoll was supposed to be a cakewalk for the ruling AAP but the flak the Bhagwant Mann government is facing over Sidhu Moose Wala's killing has created some uncertainty.

This article will look at three aspects:

• Why was the bypoll being seen as a cakewalk for AAP?

• Can Sidhu Moose Wala's murder queer the pitch for AAP?

• Did the Opposition miss an opportunity with its candidate selection?

Why Was the Sangrur Bypoll Being Seen as a Cakewalk for AAP?

There are five clear reasons for this:

1. This is the home turf of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.

2. This is a seat that Mann didn't lose even when AAP was at its weakest, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. He won by a margin of over one lakh votes and led in seven out of nine Assembly segments, with the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal leading in one each.

3. Since 2009, close to 90 percent of the bypolls in Punjab have been won by the party that is ruling in the state.

4. AAP won all nine segments falling in the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat with sizeable margins.

5. Bhagwant Mann is barely three months into office and well within what would be considered his honeymoon period.

6. CM Mann gained a lot of praise for sacking Health Minister Vijay Singla for alleged corruption barely a couple of months into office.

However, Moose Wala's murder has changed some equations and it won't be a cakewalk for AAP.

Can Sidhu Moose Wala's Murder Queer the Pitch for AAP?

It is wrong at some level to discuss the possible political impact of an event as tragic as the killing of Sidhu Moose Wala. However, it is true that AAP is facing flak over the matter, especially as Moose Wala's security detail was downgraded by the AAP government a few days before the killing.

AAP not only downgraded the security of Moose Wala and 423 other protectees, they also tweeted out the names showcasing it as "end of VIP culture". So naturally, AAP has been under attack over the killing.

Two things are not clear: First, for how many people will Moose Wala's killing be the one issue that determines their vote? Even if a section of people do vote against AAP due to this, will it be big enough to overturn the party's lead? Second, who will this section of upset voters vote for?

Had Moose Wala's father Balkaur Singh Sidhu agreed to Punjab Congress president Raja Warring's proposal to become a consensus candidate for all parties from Sangrur, AAP might have had no choice but to support him and he would have probably won. But he refused and understandably so.

So it is not clear how this factor will play in the poll.

However, there is another, significant claimant to that vote – Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) president and former Sangrur MP (1999-2004) Simranjit Singh Mann.

Moose Wala might have been a Congress leader but he respected Simranjit Singh Mann.

Moose Wala may not have entirely been in SS Mann's ideological corner but on many issues, he may have been closer to him than the Congress.

Therefore, it is quite possible that the section of people who want to vote against AAP due to Moose Wala's killing may get split multiple ways, with Congress and SS Mann being the major claimants.

Opposition's Candidate Selection May Help AAP

While AAP seems to have played safe in its candidate selection, the opposition parties seem to be more keen on cutting each other.

AAP's Aam Aadmi Candidate

A number of names were doing the rounds from AAP as the probable candidate from Sangrur – from Bhagwant Mann's sister to Manpreet Kaur to actor Karamjit Anmol and singer Jassi Sekhon. But in the end, the party chose a dedicated grassroots worker of the party and Sarpanch of Gharachon village Gurmail Singh.

This was a sensible choice in some ways. In the wake of Moose Wala's death, fielding someone from the entertainment industry may have sent a wrong message and fielding CM Bhagwant Mann's sister would have sparked allegations of nepotism and would make him vulnerable to attacks from the Oppposition.

Gurmail Singh holds and MBA and MA degrees and is known to be soft-spoken and hardworking. He fits the bill for showcasing AAP's Aam Aadmi card.

The only thing he can be accused is of being a proxy candidate from Bhagwant Mann.

Simranjit Singh Mann – the Last Man Standing

Even before Moose Wala's killing, it was being speculated that Simranjit Singh Mann would be one of the main challengers for AAP in Sangrur.

Despite being an MP from Sangrur from 1999 to 2004 and from the erstwhile Tarn Taran seat in 1989, Mann's political fortunes have been on the wane.

However, the discrediting of the Badals after the 2015 sacrilege cases and the subsequent firing led to some growth in Mann's popularity among a section of Sikhs. Some came to see Mann as the "last man standing" on issues of Sikh identity and justice for the community.

This spurt in popularity didn't reflect electorally until the recent Assembly elections. The death of Deep Sidhu proved to be a turning point.

Sidhu actively campaigned for SS Mann who contested from Amargarh. He was returning from Delhi to resume campaigning, when he died in an accident on the highway. Sidhu's death created a great deal of sympathy and Mann gave AAP a scare in Amargarh, polling 30 percent votes. His party candidate Gurjant Kattu got 21 percent votes in Mehal Kalan.

With a great deal of voter fatigue still associated with Congress and SAD and negative sentiments due to farm laws towards the BJP, probably the only player who has the potential to spring a surprise on AAP in Sangrur is SS Mann.

Among all the Opposition candidates, only Mann has the potential to mobilise voters on an emotional plank.

However, his ideological positioning also constraints his vote-gathering ability. For instance, Mann is unlikely to secure many votes in the Sangrur urban segment. He is also unlikely to get much support from Hindu voters.

He will have make for this in all the rural Sikh dominated segments. He may also get some support in Muslim dominated Malerkotla segment where he has some goodwill due to his uncompromising stand on minority rights. He did get some Muslim support when he contested from neighbouring Amargarh which, unfortunately for him, doesn't fall in the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat.

Congress' Battle to Remain the Main Opposition

Congress has fielded former Dhuri MLA Dalvir Singh Goldy for the Sangrur bypoll. At 41, Goldy is among the young leaders Congress is promoting as part of its generational change in the state.

He won from Dhuri – falling under the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat – in 2017 with a narrow margin of less than 3000 votes. He was defeated by AAP's CM candidate Bhagwant Mann in 2022 by a huge margin of over 58,000 votes.

Many say that had Congress fielded former Punjab minister and Sangrur MP from 2009-14 Vijay Inder Singla, it may have been better from the perspective of defeating AAP. Singla was a well performing MLA from Sangrur urban seat and lost mainly due to an AAP wave and not any non-performance on his part. Had he contested, he would probably have pulled much more urban votes than Dalvir Goldy and lesser rural votes than him, giving a slight advantage to SS Mann.

However, the Congress seems to have calculated that helping SS Mann is not in its interests. "How does that help us? If he (SS Mann) wins, it may scare Hindu and anti-Khalistan Sikh voters and push them further towards AAP," a Punjab Congress leader disclosed.

There's another reason Congress may have chosen Goldy over Singla. Its 2019 candidate from Sangrur and former Barnala MLA Kewal Dhillon had turned rebel during the Assembly elections. Had Congress fielded Singla now instead of Goldy, Dhillon would have tried to eat into rural Congress voters.

The main challenge for the Congress is to preserve its status as the main Opposition to the ruling AAP in Punjab.

Besides cornering the AAP government on Moose Wala's killing, the party plans to highlight the rising spate of farmer suicides as well as the allegedly increasing crime rate, in its campaign.

Badals' Effort to Reclaim Panthic Space

A few weeks ago there was a meeting between leaders of the different Akali Dals, including Sukhbir Badal, SS Mann, and Sukhdev Dhindsa. At that time it was being speculated that the different Akali Dals will back SS Mann as the joint candidate from Sangrur as the first step to establish Akali unity.

However, what happened was the reverse. The SAD (Badal) has fielded a candidate who may actively harm SS Mann's chances – Kamaldeep Kaur Rajoana, sister of Balwant Singh Rajoana, convicted for being involved in the assassination of former Punjab CM Beant Singh.

He has already spent 26 years in jail and many Sikh outfits are demanding that he be released. The Badals are trying to reclaim the Panthic space ever since their break-up with the BJP over the farm laws in 2020. Fielding Rajoana's sister is part of this process.

They also want to put a check on challenges from within the Panthic space – such as SS Mann.

Soon after being declared as the SAD (Badal) candidate for the Sangrur bypoll, Kamaldeep Kaur Rajoana sent a letter to SS Mann asking for his support in the election.

This was seen as the Badals' way of checkmating SS Mann. If Mann refuses to withdraw, the Badals get to accuse him of betraying the sister of a man declared as a "living martyr" by the Akal Takht in 2012. On the other hand, if Mann does withdraw, he loses a good opportunity to revive his electoral fortunes.

As things stand presently, SS Mann doesn't seem to have taken the bait.

If SS Mann somehow wins or comes a respectable second, it would be bad news for the Badals.

BJP's 'Anti-Congress' Mission

The BJP seems to be entering the Sangrur bypoll with one mission – to weaken the Congress in the state.

It has fielded Kewal Dhillon, who recently joined the party. As the Congress candidate from Sangrur in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Dhillon had secured three lakh votes, about 1 lakh behind Bhagwant Mann.

The BJP had its own claimants from the seat – such as businessman Arvind Khanna who was its candidate from Sangrur urban seat and Dhuri candidate Randeep Singh.

But the party went with Dhillon, indicating that its priority is to to eat into Congress' organisational strength on the ground.

However, that is easier said than done. People still have reservations about BJP in rural Punjab and import of Congress leaders alone won't help it grow.

BJP may also be banking on some help from Sukhdev Dhindsa and Parminder Dhindsa who have some influence in the area, especially in the Lehra segment.

In conclusion, it does seem that the Opposition's candidate selection may work in AAP's favour.

Perhaps the most effective formula for defeating AAP would have been if the different Akali Dals fielded SS Mann as a joint candidate, the Congress fielded Vijay Inder Singla, and BJP fielded Arvind Khanna.

This would have enabled a split in urban Hindu votes and helped SS Mann consolidate the rural Akali vote as much as possible.

However, the candidate selection by Opposition parties seems aimed less at defeating AAP and more an effort to emerge as the main alternative in the state.