China’s Big Parade is a Message to Japan
- Beijing has not forgiven Tokyo for the brutal excesses during that period and Japanese President Abe’s initiatives have only aggravated the Chinese sentiment.
- The guest list of the parade offers an instructive tally about how Beijing is currently perceived in the global politico-diplomatic calculus.
- During this parade China will showcase many military platforms and high-tech weaponry of Chinese origin.
- India had been invited to send a contingent of troops but we chose not to do so and instead will be represented by MoS for External affairs General VK Singh.
- Chinese foot-print in the extended Indo-Pacific region will become more animated and Delhi will have to read these tea-leaves in an astute manner.
On Thursday, China will display its formidable military muscle at a spectacular parade in Beijing to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. Celebrating the victory of ‘The War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression’ or the ‘World Anti-Fascist War’ (1937-1945)’ is clear that history is being harnessed by President Xi Jinping to stoke Chinese nationalism. The focus on Japan is predictable and the message is unambiguous.
Beijing has not forgiven Tokyo for the brutal excesses of that eight-year period. The contrition expressed by successive Japanese leaders is not deemed adequate and President Abe’s latest initiatives have only aggravated Chinese sentiment.
Concurrently, the multi-layered symbolism is also directed at China’s principal strategic interlocutor - the USA and the attendees to the September 3 parade offer an instructive tally about how Beijing is currently perceived in the global politico-diplomatic calculus.
For the record, India which had been invited to send a contingent of troops decided not to do so and will be represented by the Minister of State for External affairs – General VK Singh. It may be recalled that Delhi had sent an Indian contingent to Moscow in May this year when Russia celebrated the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and President Pranab Mukherjee was among the dignitaries present on that occasion.
The A-list at Beijing includes countries that China deems to be its ‘true’ friends and includes Russian President Vladimir Putin, South Korea’s Park Geun-hye, South Africa’s Jacob Zuma, Myanmar President Thein Sein and Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang. Pakistan whose relationship with China is often described in the most expansive terms (higher than the highest mountain et al) is sending a marching contingent and will be represented by its President Manmoon Hussain. A total of 17 nations will participate in this hugely symbolic parade that will showcase many military platforms and high-tech weaponry that are of Chinese origin.
It may be recalled that while Imperial Japan announced its surrender on August 15, 1945 after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki – the formal surrender document was signed by Tokyo on September 2 and China has since observed September 3 as the day of triumph over the Japanese war of aggression. Historical facts tend to be selectively highlighted or blurred as mandated by the political compulsion and China is no different from its peers.
Consequently, while the war was actually fought by the Chinese Nationalist forces led by the KMT (Guomindang) and Mao’s irregular troops had a relatively modest military contribution, Beijing has chosen to project all Chinese forces that took part in the war effort as part of ‘one China’ and have subsumed the Chiang Kai-shek effort. Thus, the parade will have two contingents of veterans with both former KMT and communist troops – some in their late 80’s.
China’s ‘rise’ has not been perceived by its proximate neighbours to be as benign as Beijing had hoped it would be and the transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping has also been more bumpy than expected.
The internal contestation within the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) and the high voltage purges among the top echelons are indicative of the many challenges that President Xi Jinping has to adroitly manage and the most recent economic turbulence has further roiled the image of the seamless yet inexorable rise of China.
Hence, the September 3 parade is an appropriate vehicle for the CCP to demonstrate its military might and channel Chinese resolve by both recalling the brutality visited upon the nation by the Japanese oppressor during the War and in a not so subtle manner identify the US and its allies (principally Japan) as the adversarial forces that need to be ‘deterred’ by the brave Chinese people.
The guest list at the parade is of some relevance to India and the fact that South Korea, Vietnam and Myanmar are represented by their Presidents as also two of the BRICS nations (Russia and South Africa) has its own sub-text.
Pakistan’s robust participation is along expected lines and the Chinese orientation in southern Asia will in all likelihood play out along a familiar contour. The ambitious one-road one-belt Xi initiative envisages a critical role for the Arabian Sea littoral and the close Beijing-Moscow relationship has a strategic underpinning that is no doubt shaped by the US ‘pivot’ - but this is a work in progress that will have to be studied and analysed carefully for its India-specific nuances.
Delhi’s decision not to send a military contingent to the Beijing parade while being represented by a junior minister is prudent and is reflective of the Indian preference to remain ‘unaligned’ even as the Asian strategic flux is yet to crystallise in a definitive manner.
One inference is unambiguous. China will not countenance the admission of Japan into the Asian strategic systemic as a ‘normal’ nation in the manner that Germany is now accepted in Europe. And the East Asian region is likely to be buffeted by this bi-lateral strategic simmer.
The Chinese foot-print in the extended Indo-Pacific region including the island states will become more animated and Delhi will have to read these tea-leaves in an astute manner. In short the signalling embedded in the Beijing parade on September 3 is complex, multi-layered and aimed at many audiences including those at Tiananmen Square and its suppressed resonances.
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