With the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is clearly in the midst of an existential crisis. I use the term 'existential' seriously. The prospect of AAP's survival as a political party is not at all certain from here.
It is, of course, true that AAP has been written off before only to keep scripting Phoenix-like comebacks. And there is indeed a best-case scenario here where AAP might fight its way out of the corner, and emerge even stronger from the crisis.
The best-case scenario essentially depends almost entirely on an early relief from the higher courts. Should that happen, AAP might build a credible counter-attack, especially given the vocal support the party might muster from a broad swathe of the Opposition.
Even if Congress' support might appear less than fulsome, given their headlong battle in Punjab, AAP could draw on the relationships it has built up over the years with the leadership of parties like the NCP, the TMC and the Shiv Sena. And not to forget, Kejriwal himself is still a top-notch campaigner, who commands the populist magic touch to convert moments of crises into opportunities. The 2015 triumph in Delhi presents an inspiring template.
Why the Lack of 'Parivarvaad' Might Hurt AAP
Unfortunately for the party, the best-case scenario does not look very likely for now. The early indications from the Supreme Court, coupled with the developments in the cases of Manish Sisodia and K Kavitha, hardly paint an encouraging picture. Moreover, the fact that AAP's fate seems to have escaped its own hands is an ominous indicator of the depth of the crisis.
There are two main aspects to this existential crisis.
The first aspect of it relates to leadership. Put simply, AAP is a supremo-based party without a first family. The institutional design of such a party makes it especially vulnerable to swift political decapitations. Once you remove the decision-making leader at the top, the party structures below quickly fall into disarray, with the party resembling a headless chicken.
The function of parivars or families, typically in Indian political parties, is to provide an alternative coalescing point for the leader's political legacy. Furthermore, families provide the leader with trusted stand-ins, who can seamlessly take over the reins of command with the absolute authority required in a crisis. AAP has often reinforced the popular conception of parivarvaad as a sign of political corruption.
Yet, as the party might soon realise, parivarvaad is more akin to an insurance policy. In many ways, it is an institutional necessity forced upon by the brutally competitive nature of Indian politics, as the political scientist Adam Ziegfeld emphasised in the book Why Regional Parties?
Is there a leader who can now play such a role in the party and the Delhi government, should Kejriwal remain cut off in jail for a while? This has to be a leader who commands a high degree of trust from, firstly, Kejriwal himself, secondly, from the other AAP leaders, thirdly, from other AAP state units, and, fourthly, the party's supporters. There are grounds for considerable doubt here on every count. Moreover, Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh, who could have possibly played this highly demanding role, are now themselves in jail.
The second aspect of this existential crisis is related to political brand. AAP’s dominant strategy since 2019 of pursuing ideological agnosticism vis-à-vis the BJP hasn’t paid off as expected, particularly as national politics has become more polarised in recent years. The late swing towards the INDIA alliance was a belated reckoning that the party made towards the new political reality.
The problem here is that AAP, unlike parties like the JMM or the RJD, does not have much to fall back on in terms of managing a prolonged crisis in the absence of the party supremo. The latter parties' survival resources included a solid social base, clearer ideological platforms, and a reservoir of institutional memory. In contrast, AAP consciously built itself as a brand-based party dependent on leader-generated momentum during elections.
AAP is Now Locked in a Perception Battle Against a Party With Superior Organisational Power
AAP's brand had two planks: the Delhi model of welfare and the anti-corruption credibility. These planks enabled it to fitfully expand its footprint in the first decade of its existence. As mentioned earlier, it is as yet unclear what happens to the Delhi model when the embodiments, Kejriwal and Sisodia, cool their heels in prison.
Second, the party's distinctive credibility on corruption has definitely eroded. This is not just down to the corruption cases, but also its willingness to ally with the same parties it labelled corrupt and opposed on that very issue, some years earlier.
This political party is often compared to a startup. This is meant to convey entrepreneurial dynamism. But the flip side of a startup is that it can fall as quickly as it can skyrocket. AAP is a weakly organised party and does not possess a cadre-based, grassroots structure that can mobilise support and generate sympathy for the leadership.
It is now locked in a bruising perception battle with the dominant political party of the country, which has much superior organisational power, and hence, much superior messaging ability. In the absence of a large-scale popular mobilisation, and facing an unsympathetic mainstream media, AAP's perception among voters would likely suffer, and not just on corruption.
Can one rule out the possibility of a Janata-like split of AAP's state units? The Punjab unit in particular, in the absence of Kejriwal, might assume a more autonomous character. And can one rule out the possibility of a fall of the Delhi government itself? Since Kejriwal has refused to resign as CM and hand over the reins of power to a successor, the Delhi government is now operating under severe pressure from the central government, without a clear chain of leadership.
In sum, unless AAP receives a few fortunate breaks soon, the party's existential crisis might soon graduate into a death spiral.
(Asim Ali is a political researcher and columnist based in Delhi. He can be reached @AsimAli6. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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