In the vibrant political theatre of Rajasthan, the stage is set for a dramatic showdown of the titans. With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) launching four Parivartan Yatras but conspicuously refraining from projecting former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, it seems evident that the upcoming poll battle in the desert state will be a high-stakes clash between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot.
The BJP's decision to keep Raje in the wings and place all bets on the PM’s appeal has made a PM-CM contest inevitable.
As CM Gehlot strives to break the state’s revolving door tradition with his welfare schemes and the BJP seeks to contain its internal rift by relying on PM Modi’s face, Rajasthan's political arena is primed for an electoral encounter like no other.
A Showdown Between Haves and Have Nots
Historically, CM Gehlot’s record in combating anti-incumbency has been rather insipid. Despite commendable welfare work under him, Gehlot was trounced in the elections of 2003 and 2013 after completing his first two terms as CM.
Recognising the need for better communication and marketing of his schemes, Gehlot this time, has been on a public relations overdrive, showcasing his achievements and connecting with the masses with a vengeance.
Recent surveys suggest his efforts may be paying off with the Congress currently better placed than the BJP.
Beyond marketing his welfare moves, recent weeks have marked a significant shift in Gehlot's strategy whereby, he is crafting a compelling narrative in the lead-up to the PM-CM battle.
Presenting the Rajasthan polls as a fight between the poor (who have benefitted from his schemes) and the rich (who are backed by PM Modi and the BJP), Gehlot has built a narrative of his government championing the cause of the poor and the underprivileged.
Besides slamming the BJP as a party favouring the wealthy elite, Gehlot is depicting the Rajasthan contest as a clash between the impoverished and the affluent – projecting Congress as the saviour of the marginalised and the BJP aligned to the greed of the privileged.
Gehlot’s ‘Pro-Poor’ Narrative Building and Image Management
Setting the poll stage as a ‘rich v/s poor’ contest, Gehlot projects his multiple schemes as essentially poor-friendly initiatives. Inevitably, efforts like the ambitious Chiranjeevi health scheme, providing cooking gas cylinders for just 500 rupees, and revival of the old pension scheme have become the main poll plank of the Congress.
To counter the BJP-Modi rhetoric to tarnish his government’s image, Gehlot is building a strong narrative of championing the rights of the poor; logical amid charges of growing inequality in the country due to the saffron brigade’s rule at the Centre for nearly a decade.
While crafting a rich-poor narrative for the political sphere, Gehlot is keen to reflect a striking contrast between himself and Modi even on the personal plane.
Employing catchy phrases like "I'm a bigger fakir than Modi”, Gehlot also questions why Modi is taking over the reins of the Rajasthan campaign if indeed, he is a Vishwaguru or a a global leader.
Taking his digs deeper, Gehlot recently noted that “Modi ji does not repeat the dresses he wears. I don't know how many times he changes his dress - once, twice, or three times a day. But my dress always remains the same.”
He even asserts that “I have not bought a plot in my life nor purchased a single gram of gold. Can he be a bigger fakir than me when Modi’s spectacles alone cost Rs 2.5 lakh?”
This narrative clearly aims to present a stark contrast between Gehlot's purported Gandhian simplicity and Modi's alleged arrogance and expensive lifestyle.
The subtext is that while Gehlot is a humble, devoted servant of Rajasthan and its people, Modi is a grandiose outsider who will disappear once the elections are over!
Freebies for Women
Beyond the verbal jousts and political posturing, Gehlot is backing his narrative with substantive initiatives. Keeping the focus firmly on welfarism, he recently began one of his most ambitious initiatives –Smartphones for Women.
Aiming to woo women voters, the scheme to distribute free mobile phones to 1.33 crore women in Rajasthan makes eminent sense as it could provide better access to online educational resources to women and their kids and also make women less dependent on males to use phones.
This plan comes on top of the decision to give LPG Cylinders for just Rs 500, a key move to woo women voters.
In the latest move just days ago, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi launched the Indira Rasoi Yojana Gramin, a flagship scheme of the Gehlot regime that provides nutritious meals for just Rs 8 to the needy which has now been extended to rural Rajasthan.
Basically, Gehlot is projecting his schemes as a definitive sign of his Pro-Poor Governance model. From effective Corona Management to major medical schemes and a massive 25 lakh Health Insurance, from 200 units of free power to farmers and 100 units of free domestic power, from cattle and accident insurance to employment guarantee schemes for the urban poor, Gehlot’s welfarism has covered all sections of society.
And as most schemes were implemented over the past five years, they can’t be dismissed merely as electoral sops.
BJP’s Strategy Against Gehlot Government
To counter Gehlot's narrative and welfare schemes, the BJP is drumming up corruption charges, particularly the controversial ‘Red Diary’ which a former Congress minister claimed contains details of corrupt deals of the Gehlot regime.
The saffron brigade's constant hammering on law-and-order issues during Parivartan Yatras also seems an attempt to exploit a perceived weakness in Gehlot governance.
Given the big buzz over Gehlot schemes, it's noteworthy that the Modi government’s reduction of LPG prices by Rs 200 came soon after Gehlot’s smartphone scheme.
With Raje given a minimal role in the campaign, how women voters will react is a key imponderable in Rajasthan polls. And marketing the price cut as a ‘Rakhi Gift to Women’ reflects the BJP's eagerness to attract women voters, especially relevant after Raje's sidelining in Rajasthan elections.
Mission Rajasthan
For BJP, the Rajasthan polls are a prestige battle. Its ‘Operation Lotus’, executed smoothly in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Maharashtra, had floundered in Rajasthan due to Gehlot’s political acumen.
Launching the Parivartan Yatra in Mewar, Home Minister Amit Shah asserted – “I am a Baniye ka beta, I want to settle all accounts.” Clearly, for the Modi-Shah duo, it’s a high-stakes battle they can’t afford to lose after the Karnataka debacle and the perception that Raje is being marginalised due to their hostility.
With Gehlot and Congress pushing the ‘rich vs poor’ narrative to a new high, the PM-CM contest in Rajasthan is already captivating political observers and the public alike.
As India’s largest state braces itself for a political spectacle of grand proportions, the narratives of this "desert storm” may well define the broad contours of the Lok Sabha clash next year.
(The author is a veteran journalist and expert on Rajasthan politics. Besides serving as a Resident Editor at NDTV, he has been a Professor of Journalism at the University of Rajasthan in Jaipur. He tweets at @rajanmahan. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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