The stage is being set for the election of members to Pakistan’s 16th National Assembly on 8 February 2024.
The Army Generals, always the scenic designers, are busy creating a fake setting to ensure the return of Nawaz Sharif’s unpopular Pakistan Muslim League (N) and the decimation of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the apparent choice of the masses.
Having survived an assassination attempt in November 2022, PTI’s charming leader Imran Khan is now in jail. Following his arrest, protests by his supporters turned into violent riots with several Army installations being attacked.
Imran Dropped As PTI’s Head in EC’s Poll List
The Army crackdown resulted in the arrest, torture, and disappearance of thousands of PTI workers. The arrested PTI leaders were given a choice: jump ship, join another party, or retire from politics – else rot in jail. Hordes of threatened leaders deserted the party.
These included the suave Asad Umar, the Minister for Planning, Development, Reforms, and Special Initiatives in Imran Khan’s cabinet. With the latter interned, Umar, a brilliant strategist and organiser, was seen as PTI’s prime ministerial candidate. But he chose to retire from politics.
Lately, the Election Commission of Pakistan, batting for the establishment, declared PTI’s intra-party elections null and void for not complying with the Elections Act and the party’s own constitution.
A list of registered parties released by the EC removed the name of Imran Khan as PTI’s party head and shows PTI as a leaderless party. Further, the electoral watchdog stripped PTI of its symbol: a cricket bat.
Cancelling the poll symbol would deprive the party of the reserved seats for women and minorities in the national and provincial assemblies.
On 26 December, the Peshawar High Court passed an order reinstating PTI’s election symbol. Instead of adhering to the high court’s directive, the EC has filed a review petition with the court. The petition is scheduled to be reviewed on 9 January.
Behind Asim Munir's Data Breach
In spite of all the roadblocks being placed before PTI, the party remains popular with the masses.
Feeling the nerve of the people, the establishment and its caretaker government are leaving no stone unturned to try and ensure a two-thirds majority for Nawaz Sharif’s party.
Pakistani social media is abuzz with reports of Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir's meeting with the chairman of the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), the government agency responsible for issuing National Identity Cards to Pakistani citizens.
The Army Chief is supposed to have given directions to create a minimum of 15,000 bogus votes in each of the 266 parliamentary constituencies by issuing counterfeit voter identification cards made in the name of deceased voters and overseas Pakistanis – 99% of who never exercise their voting right.
Data is also available on resident Pakistanis who have been issued voter cards but never vote.
Duplicate cards will be made for such voters and given to collaborators for possible use. It is said that the chairman of NADRA, unhappy with these instructions, leaked the details of the meeting.
Can PTI Turn the Wind in Its Favour?
While making sure that there is no level playing field for the PTI, the government continues to dole out unfair advantages to other major parties.
On 30 December, the Central Power Purchasing Agency released Rs 74 billion to Independent Power Producers (IPPs) – many of which are owned by the Sharif family and the Zardari group. There are 42 IPPs in Pakistan – 14 of which belong to powerful political families with retired military officers or their family members as partners.
These 14 companies rule the roost. They have monopolised licences to import Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG). The very same companies also hold licences for the export and import of wheat and sugar.
No new company can get a licence for LNG or LPG import or the import/export of sugar and wheat. The release of funds by the government to IPPs will further strengthen the election war chest of the Sharifs and Zardaris. The establishment has clearly ganged up against the PTI.
Given the surge in public sympathy for Imran Khan and his party, the PTI may still turn the tables on the establishment.
Leading the PTI is Barrister Gohar Ali Khan who, abandoning the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), joined PTI in July 2022. A fellow Huskie from the University of Washington Law School, he is not widely known in political circles. He is also said to lack "dynamism” – which should suit Imran.
Even the parties opposing PTI do not seem to be confident of victory. Aitzaz Ahsan, a veteran political observer in Pakistan, has predicted that Nawaz Sharif will leave the country before the elections and watch the results unfold from abroad.
(Akhil Bakshi a Fellow of Royal Geographical Society, Fellow of Explorers Club USA, and Editor of Indian Mountaineer, has authored 27 books including three on Tibet: Silk Road on Wheels, Train to Lhasa, and Stairway to Heaven. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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