The stage is set for the Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh.
All the parties including the regional parties are ready with their own strategies to win.
The main fight is between the Congress party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and regional parties such as the Sarv Adivasi Dal, the Gondwana Gantantra Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Samajwadi Party, and the Jogi Congress (Janta Congress Chhattisgarh) are also in the fray.
Initial Expectations and Current Reality
The road to power in Chhattisgarh passes through Bastar and Sarguja. Between them, these regions have 26 seats, representing the aspirations of about a crore people, mostly tribals. In 2018, the Congress swept the election in both of these regions.
In the normal course of things, a month back, the Congress was seen as coming back to power in Chhattisgarh with an absolute majority. I was looking at between 58 and 54 seats for them.
The BJP was expected to surge back despite its electoral loss, given that it is a strong opposition, with around 38 to 40 seats. The others would have had to be content with about five to seven seats between them.
But today, things seem to be different.
What Issues Will the Election Be Fought On?
With the non-Congress, non-BJP parties contesting from about 50 out of the 90 seats, the BJP stands to gain and can win around 36 to 38 seats. The Samajwadi Party has so far declared its intent to contest in 26 constituencies while the BSP has given 49 tickets. More multi-cornered contests mean a possible BJP victory.
Despite there being no anti-incumbency, there definitely exists a distinct voter fatigue. Another reason is that the public sees no differentiation between the promises made by various political parties and their claims of delivery. Women, tribals, and development seem to be present in all manifestoes. And the claims of delivery success are progressively more outlandish.
A sad aspect is that corruption is no longer an issue in discussions about the political economy of Chhattisgarh. The caste census too has drawn both national parties to react similarly.
OBC candidates fighting more seats and tribal candidates contesting from general seats are no longer surprising elements in either party’s strategy. Sitting MPs from both parties are also contesting assembly seats. Baghel versus Baghel is an entire story in itself, that is, Durg MP Vijay Baghel against his uncle, CM Bhupesh Baghel.
There are, however, surprising deviations in both parties’ campaign rollout.
Inexplicably, the BJP put the venerable Dr Raman Singh on a long wait before giving him the green signal as the state campaign head. And uncharacteristically, the party started late. For the Congress, Bhupesh Baghel is the face of the campaign, not anyone from the Gandhi family.
This election may finally be won by the party that counters the other on specifics. The BJP will win if it can either successfully counter or make a better offer than what is in the Baghel bag of goodies, like the MSP for paddy and Chhattisgarhiavad. The Baghel payment system for forest produce will be a difficult proposal to counter.
Baghel’s promise of total prohibition has not taken off. The BJP is going to try and exploit this to its advantage.
Modi Magic and Boots-on-the-ground
The Congress, to win, must prove that the Modi magic is irrelevant in the states, following its thumping victory in the Karnataka elections. And that the Congress’ programmes and policies for the state are far better than the Central schemes – double engine sarkar be damned!
The difficulties for Baghel stem from the public services scam and the Enforcement Directorate's raids on his aides and associates. A couple of arrests and even one adverse decision by a major court can turn the tide against him.
His party’s overconfidence about its prospects may also be the reason for his defeat.
The BJP’s attempt to come back to power may be undone by its lax start to the Chhattisgarh campaigning process and its over-dependence on the Modi magic. The party's boots-on-the-ground policy is not visible yet. The usual hunger for electoral victory seems sated, and that can prove to be a crucial mistake.
The vote-cutter front in Chhattisgarh comprises the AAP, the Sarv Adivasi Dal (led by Arvind Netam, former Congress MP and union minister), the Gondwana Gantantra Party (led by Sant Ram Netam) and the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh – Jogi (led by Amit Jogi son of Ajit Jogi), and last but not the least, the Bahujan Samaj Party. All of them will play the role of a spoiler more for the Congress, much to the joy of the BJP.
Electioneering has just started. Programmes for the star campaigners of all the parties have already been chalked out. It will not be easy to predict the outcome right at the moment.
Things will be clearer after a fortnight. As always, the voter is the kingmaker. It will be interesting to see who and what appeals to the voting Chhattisgarhi.
(Ashok Tomar is a political commentator based out of Chhattisgarh. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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