Brazen Hypocrisy in the Proposed US-Pak Nuclear Deal

Pakistan has been plugging for a nuclear deal ever since the framework for the US-India agreement was announced.

A report published earlier last week in the usually reliable Washington Post by the usually well-informed columnist David Ignatius claiming that a US-Pakistan nuclear deal on lines similar to what was offered to India in Oct 2008 could be round the corner, comes as a rude surprise.

Pakistan has been plugging for this ever since the framework for the US-India agreement was announced in a joint statement between President George Bush and then PM Manmohan Singh in July, 2005. First, it maintained that the agreement increased the chances of a nuclear arms race in the sub-continent. Then it argued that the agreement was discriminatory and that it should also be offered a similar deal as it was an energy-deficient country.

All these arguments were junked by the US administration. President Bush in response to a query on the possibility of a similar nuclear deal with Pakistan, categorically stated, “Pakistan and India are different countries with different needs and different histories.”

A Rude Shock

• An American report hints at the possibility of a US-Pakistan nuclear deal similar to what was offered to India in Oct 2008.
• Report claims that discussions could be held during Nawaz Sharif ‘s visit to Washington later this month.
• The Indian foreign office has reacted strongly and promptly against such a move.
• India has cautioned the US administration to pay full attention to Pakistan’s role and track-record in nuclear proliferation.
• If such a deal were to materialise, it will seriously dent India’s strategic partnership with the US.

A Huge Dampener

In July 2010, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton countered Pakistan’s request by saying that Pakistan’s checkered history on nuclear proliferation “raises red flags” regarding nuclear cooperation with Pakistan. In 2007, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher in response to a query on a possible timeline of a similar deal with Pakistan said, “Now, in 10 years, 20 years or 50 years. No, I don’t see anything like that on the cards for Pakistan.”

The report claims that discussions on this could be held during Nawaz Sharif ‘s visit to Washington later this month.

The Indian foreign office has reacted strongly and promptly against such a move, cautioning the US administration to pay full attention to Pakistan’s role and track-record in nuclear proliferation.

Such a deal could be a huge dampener for the India-US strategic partnership. Modi has invested considerable political capital in rejuvenating ties with the US. Bilateral relations were in a state of stagnation before Modi assumed charge last year. During his visit to India in 2010, Obama had termed bilateral ties as the defining partnership of the 21st century. However, no significant progress took place over the next four years.

The first major impetus occurred during Modi’s visit to the US in September 2014 with progress in several areas including strategic, political, commercial, innovation, energy, education and others. This was followed by the highly successful visit by Obama as chief guest for our Republic Day this year and by the equally momentous visit by Modi to the US last month.

Modi’s strong push for a comprehensive, strategic partnership with the US has resulted in some misunderstandings with our longstanding ally Russia and contributed to warming of Russia-Pakistan ties, including in defence supplies, which is happening for the first time ever. It has also fostered greater distrust between India and China.

Detrimental to Regional Security

The rationale of the proposed deal is not clear. Pakistan has smuggled nuclear technology and material from other countries to build its nuclear arsenal. India, even without being an NPT signatory, has meticulously observed all its provisions. Pakistan has supplied nuclear equipment and uranium ore to Iran, Libya and others. No one has forgotten AQ Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programme who ran the world’s largest ever illegal nuclear proliferation network.

It is not clear what guarantees Pakistan will provide to reassure that technology and material transferred to it will not be passed on to undesirable elements. The risk and danger of such technology or dirty bombs falling into the hands of terrorists would increase significantly with the deal.

It is not certain whether the deal will be able to muster support from the US Congress as Obama will soon become a lame-duck president.

It might not be possible for Pakistan to separate its military and civilian nuclear installations, as from all available reports, the two segments are intimately integrated. It is doubtful whether the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) will grant a waiver to nuclear commerce with Pakistan given its previous track record. The US is a much diminished power today than it was in 2008. However, China’s support as well as a more cooperative Russia could tilt the balance in Pakistan’s favour.

The columnist appears to have been briefed by some knowledgeable sources in the US administration to assess reactions of the domestic and international community. Many think tanks have been speaking for some time in favour of providing a parallel nuclear deal to Pakistan. While the Bush administration was unambiguous in rejecting such a possibility, the Obama administration has been more ambivalent in its reaction.

If such a deal were to materialise, it will seriously dent the single-minded focus of the Modi government to enhance its strategic partnership with the US. This would be to the detriment of both countries and could adversely impact regional security and stability in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region.

(The writer is a former Indian ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia)