Pakistani officials threatened to expel Afghanistan’s Taliban from bases in Pakistan if they did not join peace talks in March. The militants however, rebuffed their traditional patron, two officials said, casting doubt on how much influence Islamabad retains over them.
After the secret meetings with Pakistani officials about two weeks ago, the Taliban’s Supreme Council met at an undisclosed location and voted to reject the talks, according to a council member.
Instead, the insurgents are now pouring back into Afghanistan for what they say will be a fierce spring offensive to be launched soon.
The peace talks were scheduled for early March with the Afghan government.
A member of the Taliban’s leadership council, or shura, said rebel representatives met in Islamabad with Pakistani officials a little more than two weeks ago.
They have asked our representatives to bring more decision-making people to the next meeting ... to the meeting with US and Afghan officials. This is their dream, but they will not be able to see our senior commanders.Taliban Council Member
Pakistan’s influence over the insurgents is the lynchpin to the peace plan developed over last few months by Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States and China to bring an end to the 15-year-old war in Afghanistan.
A retired military official said:
A Pakistani official in Islamabad said the Taliban’s recent success on the battlefield inside Afghanistan had changed the equation.
The insurgents have won new zones of influence if not outright control from Afghan security forces since the United States and its allies pulled most combat troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014.
Pakistan’s trump card – safe havens on its soil – is in danger of being snatched away. The Taliban have little incentive to step off the battlefield now, given recent gains and those likely to come in the next few months. In effect, why quit while you’re ahead?Michael Kugelman, Woodrow Wilson Institute
Nafees Zakaria, a spokesman for Pakistan’s Foreign Office, said he had no knowledge of meetings with the Taliban but added, “We usually don’t know who has met with whom” in the sensitive and high-level peace initiative.
Publicly, both the Afghan and Pakistani government are expressing hopes that peace talks can begin before the traditional Taliban spring offensive .
In Kabul, however, members of the Afghan government were sceptical about Pakistan’s assertions. Echoing the sentiments of many officials, an Afghan cabinet member said:
Pakistan’s honesty and sincerity with regard to the Afghan peace process has always been a question.
Pakistani officials, however, deny the charge and insist the government and military recognise that Afghanistan’s war threatens their own security .
Pakistan’s top diplomat Sartaj Aziz spoke last week of progress in restarting talks “in coming days”.
However, Taliban commanders told Reuters that with the council’s decision, they are focusing on launching their annual fighting season with the hopes of grabbing more territory.
We already have started focusing on the spring offensive, and that’s why the majority of the fighters and commanders are going there (Afghanistan).Senior Taliban Leader
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