WED-Side story: How BJP’s Honeymoon With Bihar Voters Got Over

Issues ranging from reservation to rising prices of pulses, BJP had to bear the brunt of it all in the Bihar polls.

BJP leaders may not admit this publicly now, but the battle of Bihar had turned into a war of attrition between Narendra Modi and his arch rival Nitish Kumar. As the electorate’s mandate is now loud and clear, Nitish has proved once again that he remains Bihar’s best bet.

But how come the BJP, which started its poll campaign much ahead and amid much fanfare, lost the plot?

What The BJP Got Wrong

• Gross underestimation of the WED (Woman, EBC and Dalit) factor responsible for BJP’s defeat in Bihar
  
• Launch of schemes such as cycle yojna and scholarship yojna tilt the female electorate in Nitish’s favour
  
• Lalu helps the Grand Alliance in getting EBC vote, causes further consolidation of votes by ‘Mandal versus Kamandal’ rant
  
• Bhagwat’s statement on reservation coupled with escalating prices leads to voters turning their backs on the BJP
  

The WED Factor

It apparently underestimated the WED (women, EBCs and dalit) factor. BJP could not make out that woman voters, mostly rural, were more than obliged by Nitish through the Mukhyamantri cycle yojna (under which over 8.5 lakh cycles were distributed to school going girls in the last nine years), scholarship yojna, dress scheme and Rs 10,000 as incentive to those students who scored first division in the matriculation examination.

Besides, the female electorate was further wooed by Nitish who promised them 35 per cent reservations in State Government jobs if he returns to power for the third time. This was besides the regularisation of jobs of more than 2 lakh contract teachers. Nitish, who had earlier reserved 50 per cent seats for women in panchayat polls and reaped rich electoral dividends in 2010 Assembly elections, knew for sure that any further move to empower women, will help him politically. This was evident when six per cent more women (compared to previous poll) turned up at the booth to exercise their franchise.

The ‘Pachpaniya’ Factor

Secondly, the extremely backward class (EBCs), also called pachpaniya (because of the 55 castes and sub-castes), which constitute nearly 33% of the electorate, tilted the tide in favour of Nitish. Lalu Prasad, the messiah of weaker sections, played a huge role in shifting the EBC votes towards Nitish.

In his rally after rally, Lalu stressed that it was a battle between upper castes and backwards, much like the 1995 polls. (The 1995 assembly election was the first poll after the Mandal Commission report was implemented in which Lalu’s party got 167 seats in undivided Bihar).

Dalit Factor Didn’t Work for BJP

Thirdly, the dalit factor. The BJP stitched a formidable alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP, Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM. On paper, it looked a deadly combination, but as polls progressed, Paswan and Kushwaha took a back seat.

Manjhi showed some enthusiasm initially, but with his limited hold in Magadh range (comprising Gaya and Jehanabad), the self-proclaimed Mahadalit icon developed cold feet when he was tersely told by the BJP that he should not nurture any dream of becoming Bihar CM again.

Traditionally, the dalits and mahadalits have never enjoyed the company of upper castes, the hardcore constituency of the BJP. In fact, in most of the places, they have been at loggerheads with feudal landlords. So, when Lalu gave a clarion call to them: “Mere Bhaiyon, pichdo, ati-pichdo, daliton, mahadaliton, it’s a battle between Mandal versus Kamandal,” the dalits, mahadalits and other weaker sections apparently threw their weight behind the Nitish-led Grand Alliance, much to the amusement of BJP mandarins.

Failing To Read The Writing On The Wall

But apart from the caste arithmetic and electoral chemistry, the issue of arakshan (reservation issue raked up by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat at a horribly wrong time), beef (an issue borrowed by BJP from UP much like its leaders borrowed from outside Bihar), advertisements related to cow and the spiraling price of daal and onions sealed BJP’s fate.

This undercurrent, however, could not be read by an army of tech-savvy BJP workers working 24x7 at party’s war room. More than Nitish and Lalu, the BJP has to blame itself for having failed to read the writing on the wall.

(The writer is a Bihar-based journalist)