Less than ten days since its formation, the 'INDIA' coalition has announced a major offensive against the Narendra Modi government – a no-confidence motion.
This decision was taken after a meeting of the constituents of the 26-party INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). The preliminary conversations around this proposal had begun on Monday itself with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge sounding out leaders of a few Opposition parties.
The motion was filed by Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi on Wednesday. The choice of Gogoi is important as he is one of the Congress' most important faces in the Northeast and Manipur will be a key theme in the motion.
What's INDIA's Strategy Behind It?
It is an interesting coincidence that the last no-confidence motion was moved exactly five years ago, in the 2018 Monsoon Session. Back then, it was initiated by the Telugu Desam Party, which had moved out of the NDA a few months earlier.
The main intention of the INDIA coalition is to get Prime Minister Narendra Modi to respond to their charges on issues that he seems to be avoiding, especially the ongoing violence in Manipur.
Why is it a Gamble?
Firstly, because the numbers are not in the Opposition's favour in the Lok Sabha. The constituents of INDIA have about 141 seats in the Lok Sabha, whose current strength is 537. The NDA is at above 320. The result of the motion is a foregone conclusion even if INDIA manages to get support from a few other Opposition parties.
The second risk that the coalition is taking is the fall of this motion, could be used by the government to blunt further criticism. The third problem for the Opposition is the lack of firepower.
Lack of Good Speakers
There is also a serious lack of firepower in the Opposition in the Lok Sabha. Top Congress leaders like Mallikarjun Kharge and P Chidambaram are in the Rajya Sabha, Rahul Gandhi has been disqualified and Congress' leader in the lower House, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, is prone to faux pas.
The Opposition will especially find it tough to put forward strong speakers in Hindi. The RJD doesn't have any presence in the House. SP's Akhilesh Yadav and AAP's Bhagwant Mann, both very good speakers in Hindi, vacated their seats to contest Assembly elections in 2022. Another good speaker, SP's Azam Khan, also had vacated his seat and was subsequently disqualified.
Among senior leaders, JD-U's Lallan Singh, NCP's Supriya Sule and Congress' Manish Tewari are fluent in Hindi.
The lack of good speakers among top Opposition leaders has been a problem in the Lok Sabha for much of the second Modi term. A great deal of the heavy hitting has come from leaders like Asaduddin Owaisi whose party has only two members and Mahua Moitra who is relatively junior.
If the motion does take place the Opposition will be up against a formidable NDA line-up, that includes the Prime Minister who is supposed to give the final reply to the motion.
Can 'INDIA' Make it Count?
The INDIA coalition can't win the numbers' game. But the Opposition can try for certain positive outcomes from the No Confidence Motion.
Cornering the government on the Manipur crisis and other issues.
As Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, BJP MP from Kaiserganj, is likely to be there in the treasury benches, the Opposition could use the opportunity to bring up the sexual harassment allegations against him made by female wrestlers.
In an unequal media landscape in which news channels give disproportionate coverage to the government's viewpoint, a No Confidence Motion can be a useful platform to bring focus to the Opposition's arguments as well.
This is also an important exercise to strengthen the unity of the newly formed INDIA and present it as a cohesive coalition with a clear purpose.
The Opposition may try and put the BJP's allies in the Northeast in a spot over the mishandling of the Manipur violence. A great deal of focus would be on the Mizo National Front that has one MP in the Lok Sabha. There is a great deal sympathy in Mizoram for the Kuki-Zo community that is facing attacks in Manipur. Voting for the government in the motion may harm the MNF back home.
The Motion would also help INDIA question the TRS and BSP which do stake claim to anti-BJP votes but also abstain at crucial moments.
The BJP on its part may try to use the Motion as an opportunity to drive a wedge in the newly formed Opposition coalition. Especially on its target list would be the remaining MPs of the NCP and Shiv Sena-UBT and also the Janata Dal-United.
It may also try to woo former allies like the Akali Dal, Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal-Secular.
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