"These surveys are baseless. You remember what the surveys said for the recent state elections and then you saw the results," said Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar on Monday, when quizzed about the latest opinion poll by CVoter.
Almost six months after Ajit Pawar split the NCP and joined hands with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), many had expected the ruling 'Mahayuti' alliance in the state to get a upper hand in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections than what several surveys showed after the fall of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in 2022.
The latest CVoter survey shows that the ruling alliance might gain a few more seats than what it would before the NCP split in July this year. Experts, however, say that several factors might change in the run up to 2024.
Here's a closer look at the findings of the survey:
CVoter Maharashtra Survey Shows MVA's Upper Hand Over NDA: A Look at 3 Factors
1. What the CVoter Opinion Poll Shows
The poll shows the MVA getting between 26-28 out of the 48 seats in the state.
The 'Mahayuti' alliance of the BJP, Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction together is expected to get between 19-21 seats.
The MVA is also predicted to get a vote share of 41% while the ruling alliance led by CM Eknath Shinde is expected to bag 37% votes.
The smaller regional parties, meanwhile, are predicted to bag a massive vote share of 22%.
Expand2. What the Previous Surveys Showed
Even though the survey gives an upper hand to the MVA, the poll shows a drop in the number of seats that the alliance was predicted to get before Ajit Pawar joined the NDA.
According to a survey by CVoter held in January 2023, the MVA, which then had a united NCP, was predicted to win 34 seats. The latest survey shows that figure dropping to 28.
According to a survey by Sakal media group published in June this year, just weeks before the NCP split, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was predicted to get 39.3% votes, while the MVA (with a united NCP) was predicted to get 47.7% votes.
The latest CVoter survey shows that the BJP-Shiv Sena-Ajit Pawar alliance is predicted to get 37% votes, while the Congress-Shiv Sena (UBT)-Sharad Pawar alliance is predicted to get 41% votes.
However, one thing is clear from the two CVoter surveys held in January and December this year – the gap between both sides is narrowing.
Expand3. 3 Key Factors to Look At
1. The Reservation Conflict:
Despite putting up a united front over the matter, the ruling alliance is believed to be largely divided over the matter of reservation to Marathas. CM Shinde's move to earlier indicate reservation to Marathas under the OBC category led to an unprecedented backlash from the latter.
Both communities, a sizeable voter base in the state, are irked with the ruling alliance. Meanwhile, several leaders including Chhagan Bhujbal are looking to engineer mass mobilisation of the OBC community in the ruling alliance's favour.
2. The Unsettling Rift Between Alliances:
"The key reason to include Ajit Pawar in the ruling alliance was the fact that Uddhav Thackeray still enjoys significant sympathy on the ground. Despite very strong attempts, many districts, especially in north Maharashtra, do not see him as a state-wide leader," said political analyst Hemant Desai.
"Conflicts and compromises over issues related to tall NCP leaders like Nawab Malik and Hasan Mushrif playing out in public may not have gone well with the core BJP-RSS voters in the state," he added.
The parties in the MVA, too, have an uphill battle ahead with the machinery of the BJP and the popularity of Ajit Pawar to counter while dealing with two splits in two years.
Moreover, parties on both sides have been vocal about the fact that they are not yet on the same page over seat sharing with their respective alliance partners.
3. The Potential to Turn Things Around:Experts, however, believe that several factors may turn tides in favour of the ruling alliance in the upcoming months, including the 'Ram Mandir' factor.
The Nagpur-headquartered RSS is believed to be already steering the momentum ahead of the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya scheduled for 22 January 2024. Several Shiv Sena and BJP workers at the time had a major contribution to the Ram temple movement with scores of kar sewaks from the state being active participants, including the top leadership of the Shiv Sena.
Moreover, PM Modi's popularity, too, is predicted to be on the rise in the state.
Though the Sakal survey from June 2023 showed a vertical split in Modi's popularity with 42.1% favouring him as the PM, the recent CVoter survey show 55% favouring him for the top post.
Expand4. How Parties Reacted To the Survey
Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut, while speaking to the media, said that this is just the initial survey and that the MVA will win between 35-40 seats.
"We are prepared to win between 35-40 seats. This is an initial survey. There are prominent leaders who are still planning to join the MVA ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Those equations will change too. We are confident that we will win 40 seats," Raut said.
Meanwhile, Maharashtra deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis said that be it any survey, the people are prepared to vote for Narendra Modi as the prime minister.
"There is only one wave, which is the Modi wave. Hence, we will cross 40 in the Lok Sabha at any cost," Fadnavis said.
Ajit Pawar, meanwhile, refuted the predictions.
"These surveys are baseless. You remember what the surveys said for the recent state elections and then you saw the results. It all depends on how many people you talk to. Some have a sample set of 10,000 o2 25,000 or 60,000. It also depends the districts where your sample set is from. We have formed and alliance and we will work on the areas where we are falling short," Pawar said.
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Expand
What the CVoter Opinion Poll Shows
The poll shows the MVA getting between 26-28 out of the 48 seats in the state.
The 'Mahayuti' alliance of the BJP, Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction together is expected to get between 19-21 seats.
The MVA is also predicted to get a vote share of 41% while the ruling alliance led by CM Eknath Shinde is expected to bag 37% votes.
The smaller regional parties, meanwhile, are predicted to bag a massive vote share of 22%.
What the Previous Surveys Showed
Even though the survey gives an upper hand to the MVA, the poll shows a drop in the number of seats that the alliance was predicted to get before Ajit Pawar joined the NDA.
According to a survey by CVoter held in January 2023, the MVA, which then had a united NCP, was predicted to win 34 seats. The latest survey shows that figure dropping to 28.
According to a survey by Sakal media group published in June this year, just weeks before the NCP split, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was predicted to get 39.3% votes, while the MVA (with a united NCP) was predicted to get 47.7% votes.
The latest CVoter survey shows that the BJP-Shiv Sena-Ajit Pawar alliance is predicted to get 37% votes, while the Congress-Shiv Sena (UBT)-Sharad Pawar alliance is predicted to get 41% votes.
However, one thing is clear from the two CVoter surveys held in January and December this year – the gap between both sides is narrowing.
3 Key Factors to Look At
1. The Reservation Conflict:
Despite putting up a united front over the matter, the ruling alliance is believed to be largely divided over the matter of reservation to Marathas. CM Shinde's move to earlier indicate reservation to Marathas under the OBC category led to an unprecedented backlash from the latter.
Both communities, a sizeable voter base in the state, are irked with the ruling alliance. Meanwhile, several leaders including Chhagan Bhujbal are looking to engineer mass mobilisation of the OBC community in the ruling alliance's favour.
2. The Unsettling Rift Between Alliances:
"The key reason to include Ajit Pawar in the ruling alliance was the fact that Uddhav Thackeray still enjoys significant sympathy on the ground. Despite very strong attempts, many districts, especially in north Maharashtra, do not see him as a state-wide leader," said political analyst Hemant Desai.
"Conflicts and compromises over issues related to tall NCP leaders like Nawab Malik and Hasan Mushrif playing out in public may not have gone well with the core BJP-RSS voters in the state," he added.
The parties in the MVA, too, have an uphill battle ahead with the machinery of the BJP and the popularity of Ajit Pawar to counter while dealing with two splits in two years.
Moreover, parties on both sides have been vocal about the fact that they are not yet on the same page over seat sharing with their respective alliance partners.
3. The Potential to Turn Things Around:
Experts, however, believe that several factors may turn tides in favour of the ruling alliance in the upcoming months, including the 'Ram Mandir' factor.
The Nagpur-headquartered RSS is believed to be already steering the momentum ahead of the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya scheduled for 22 January 2024. Several Shiv Sena and BJP workers at the time had a major contribution to the Ram temple movement with scores of kar sewaks from the state being active participants, including the top leadership of the Shiv Sena.
Moreover, PM Modi's popularity, too, is predicted to be on the rise in the state.
Though the Sakal survey from June 2023 showed a vertical split in Modi's popularity with 42.1% favouring him as the PM, the recent CVoter survey show 55% favouring him for the top post.
How Parties Reacted To the Survey
Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut, while speaking to the media, said that this is just the initial survey and that the MVA will win between 35-40 seats.
"We are prepared to win between 35-40 seats. This is an initial survey. There are prominent leaders who are still planning to join the MVA ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Those equations will change too. We are confident that we will win 40 seats," Raut said.
Meanwhile, Maharashtra deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis said that be it any survey, the people are prepared to vote for Narendra Modi as the prime minister.
"There is only one wave, which is the Modi wave. Hence, we will cross 40 in the Lok Sabha at any cost," Fadnavis said.
Ajit Pawar, meanwhile, refuted the predictions.
"These surveys are baseless. You remember what the surveys said for the recent state elections and then you saw the results. It all depends on how many people you talk to. Some have a sample set of 10,000 o2 25,000 or 60,000. It also depends the districts where your sample set is from. We have formed and alliance and we will work on the areas where we are falling short," Pawar said.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)