Grabbing global eyeballs and establishing his credentials as the most credible secular leader in the country, on October 23, 1990, Lalu Prasad Yadav, then Bihar’s chief minister, stopped L K Advani’s Toyota rath yatra in Bihar and had the veteran BJP leader arrested in Samastipur for spreading “communal disharmony”. A quarter century later, Lalu again played a pivotal role in stopping the BJP juggernaut in Bihar.
Despite corruption charges and a high voltage campaign against “jungle raj” led by the BJP, the RJD-led by Lalu stunned pollsters and the political class, emerging as the single largest party in Bihar by winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested as part of the Grand Alliance also comprising the JD(U) and the Congress. In 2010, the RJD, contesting on its own, won only 22 seats.
What is even more humiliating for the BJP is that it has been relegated to the third position with 52 seats, 39 down from its 2010 tally of 91, despite an aggressive, no-holds-barred campaign by its most powerful duo – Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah. The JD(U) came second with 71 seats and the Congress emerged fourth bagging 28 seats, 24 up from its 2010 score of four seats. The final tally indicates that vote transfer did happen and each party benefited from the alliance.֒
Lalu’s Political Acumen
After ten years of political wilderness, the victory on Sunday has come as a booster shot for Lalu who has demonstrated that he still commands the formidable MY combination (Muslims 16 per cent and Yadav 14 per cent).
It was Lalu’s political wisdom and maturity that put aside his ego and agreed to accept Nitish Kumar as chief minister, though prompted by Congress president Rahul Gandhi to do so and work in unison with the Bihar’s “vikas purush”. A smart package of “development” represented by Kumar and “social justice” plank of RJD and the Congress’ slogan of “inclusiveness” found traction and credibility among the electors as against BJP’s street smart politics of mixing development with communalism to win the polls.
Tough Days Ahead for BJP
- Lalu stuns pollsters, ends his 10-year-old political wilderness as RJD emerges single largest party – relegating BJP to third position
- A resurgent Opposition could hamper Modi’s development agenda. GST bill could be delayed
- ‘Intolerance’ debate could find echo in stormy winter session as index of opposition unity has increased
- BJP could face problems in the House with many leaders who were silent so far coming out in the open questioning Bihar strategy
BJP’s Follies
While a superior alliance had given a head start to the Mahagathbandhan, all other winning ingredients were supplied to it by the BJP strategists. They did not invest or cultivate a chief ministerial candidate and instead overtly projected two outsiders – Modi and Shah - giving Nitish Kumar a potential election plank – ‘Bihari vs Baharis’ – which apparently found some resonance among people. RSS chief Mohan Bhagawat also unwittingly helped the Grand Alliance with his inopportune anti-reservation comment which Lalu promptly seized and spun it into an electoral weapon to polarise the 70-odd per cent OBCs, EBCs, SCs and STs against the NDA.
BJP hotheads including Sakshi Maharaj, Yogi Adityanath and union ministers such as V.K. Singh, Mahesh Sharma contributed their bit by provocative and divisive comments. The killing of Mohammad Akhlaq in Dadri for allegedly consuming beef consolidated the Muslim voters around the Grand Alliance dashing BJP’s hopes that the MIM leader Assadudin Owaisi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Pappu Yadav and NCP’s Tariq Anwar will cause splitting of the minority votes to its advantage. The MIM, NCP, SP drew blank in the polls.
Jolt for PM’s Reform Agenda
A comprehensive defeat in Bihar after Delhi early this year is likely to have multiple and adverse effects on the BJP and the Modi government. It is possible that bottled-up anger against the Modi- Shah duo in the party may burst out in the open. There were allegations that the entire strategy, including ticket distribution, was planned and executed by Shah overlooking state leaders. Leaders such as R. K. Singh and Shatrughan Sinha had gone public with their resentment.
Most importantly, the defeat in Bihar is likely to hamper Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s push for his reforms agenda. The immediate casualty could be the GST Bill pending before the Parliament. The winter session later this month would be even stormier than the monsoon session in July. Possible collaboration and coordination between secular chief ministers could pose problem for Modi and government.
Victory of the Grand Alliance is expected to bolster the index of ‘Opposition unity’ both inside as well as outside Parliament. The prevailing climate of “intolerance” and Prime Minister’s inability to rein in the hotheads in his party would also unite the Opposition in Parliament. Even BJP allies will start asserting. The Shiv Sena, already fighting a turf war with BJP in Maharashtra, has complimented Nitish hailing him as the “new hero” of the country. Not a pleasing portend for BJP.
(The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator)
The figures quoted in the article are from the Bihar Election Commission website as they appeared at 5:30 pm
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