As Madhya Pradesh gears up for the third phase of Lok Sabha elections, political heavyweights from the state, including two former chief ministers – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Congress MP Digvijaya Singh – as well as Jyotiraditya Scindia are set to witness a pivotal contest.
Nine out of the 29 seats in MP will see polling in the third phase of general elections on Tuesday, 7 May.
Experts opine that this phase is crucial for both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress in the state. It will set the trend for further phases as well as clarify campaigning strategies and identify if there's a need for tactical changes in coming phases.
Madhya Pradesh, which has been host to a lot of political turbulence over the last few years – including the defection of erstwhile Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia to the BJP and the landslide victory of the BJP in the recently concluded state Assembly elections, followed by a surprise nomination of Ujjain MLA Mohan Yadav as the new chief minister of the state – has its political corridors rife with speculations and predictions for the third phase.
In this article, The Quint sheds light on the major political trends, issues, and challenges on three hot seats – Vidisha, Rajgarh, and Guna.
'Mama vs Dada' in Vidisha
Since 1967, the year in which Vidisha Lok Sabha constituency came into existence, the Jana Sangh and then BJP have held the seat, except for two tenures in 1980 and 1984, when Congress' Pratap Bhanu Sharma wrested the seat.
Since 1989, the Vidisha seat has elected BJP leaders. Between 1991 and 2004, Shivraj Singh Chouhan was elected five times from the seat.
Although Chouhan is returning after almost two decades to contest the Lok Sabha elections and is contesting against Sharma – the only Congress candidate to have ever won from this seat – locals say that Mamaji's (as Chouhan is popularly called) voter connect has only got stronger after his ousting from the CM post.
Twenty-eight-year-old Shubham Singh, an auto parts mechanic in Vidisha town, tells The Quint that the main discussion around Chouhan’s election is of the margin by which he will clinch victory.
“Mamaji is our leader, there's no doubt about that. We are all pledged to make him win with the highest margin in the country.”Shubham Singh, an auto parts mechanic in Vidisha town
Although Shubham earns a meagre amount of Rs 14,000 per month, with his wife and a child dependent on him, he says that he will vote for Chouhan because the latter's policies for women have helped his household.
Geographically, the Vidisha constituency covers parts of Raisen, Vidisha, Sehore and Dewas districts and comprises eight Assembly seats, which include Bhojpur, Sanchi, Silwani, Vidisha, Basoda, Budhni, Ichhawar and Khategaon. Of these, except Silwani, all others are currently held by the BJP.
Considered relatively rural, there are around 19.1 lakh voters in this Lok Sabha seat.
Sandeep Sharma, a local journalist from Vidisha, tells The Quint that the Congress' campaign on the ground hasn't been very effective. He claims that if the voting percentage increased, Chouhan might garner a bulky lead against his counterpart, Sharma or 'Dada', in the elections.
“The Congress’ candidate selection in Vidisha has been very absent-minded. It's like you're forcing a retired boxer to fight against someone who is on a winning streak, and at the peak of his career. In the 'Mama vs Dada' battle, Mama has a clear edge, with the 'Modi factor' giving him even more of an edge,” Sandeep adds.
While the 'Mama vs Dada' strategy of the Congress may not seem to be working out in Vidisha, around 150 km away in the Rajgarh Lok Sabha constituency, the return of the Congress' Digvijaya Singh after three decades has spiced up the poll contest.
With Hopes to Reclaim Home Turf, Digvijaya Singh Returns After 3 Decades
Fifty-six-year-old Gajendra Dangi, a staunch Congress worker, is bubbling with energy when he says, “Now that 'Diggi Raja' is back, you will see how elections are fought and won”.
Digvijaya Singh has returned to his home turf after three decades to contest the Lok Sabha elections against the BJP’s Rodmal Nagar who has fared well in the last two parliamentary elections. In his campaigns, he's raised the issues of unemployment, price rise, and Nagar’s absence in the area.
Although Digvijaya Singh has been away from elections after his decade-long CM tenure from 1993 to 2003, he remains a viable target for the BJP in the state. His hold on the Congress unit and his strong connection, within the cadre and the public, is said to have strengthened with the several yatras that he carried out.
The most notable Narmada Yatra spanned around 200 days wherein 70-year-old Digvijaya Singh, along with his wife Amrita Rai, walked for over 3,300 km in 2017-18.
However, while yatras helped him strengthen his position and bond within the party, his absence from electoral politics paved the way for the RSS and the BJP to set up camps and maintain their hold in Rajgarh.
Digvijaya Singh's first stint in the Lok Sabha was in 1984 after winning the Rajgarh parliamentary seat. He, however, lost the seat in 1989 before wresting it again from the BJP in 1991.
After he became the MP CM, his brother Laxman Singh took over the constituency and went on to win the seat for the next five times.
Meanwhile, the BJP was on the sidelines, looking for an opportunity which came in the form of Laxman Singh switching over to the BJP in 2003 and winning the seat again in 2004.
In the last two elections, the BJP’s Rodmal Nagar has secured decisive victories from the seat as party further strengthened its roots in the area.
Of the eight Assembly constituencies – Raghogarh, Narsinghgarh, Biaora, Rajgarh, Chachoura, Khilchipur, Sarangpur (SC) and Susner – which make up the Rajgarh Lok Sabha seat, the Congress managed to win only one seat, Raghogarh, which had Digvijaya Singh's son Jaivardhan contesting from the Congress.
A local journalist, requesting anonymity, says that Rodmal Nagar would have had a peaceful victory but Digvijaya Singh's nomination from the seat has changed the equation altogether.
“Rodmal Nagar would have won like he won in the last two elections on the back of the 'Modi factor', but since Digvijaya Singh returned, the political discourse has shifted to the work done and the promises left unfulfilled by the ruling BJP. The older generation is fond of Digvijaya Singh, and he is known to be a people's leader. Since his politics started from Raghogarh and he has represented Rajgarh twice in the Parliament, the scales have once again tilted in the favour of the Congress,” he says.
Another local 66-year-old kirana shop owner Shyam Dangi opines that the BJP candidate Rodmal Nagar has been enjoying the fruit of the RSS’ devoted organisational machinery, but with Digvijaya Singh in the fray, Nagar stands little chance.
“We know Raja Saheb (as Digvijaya Singh is popularly called in the state) – and he is the son of our soil. Rodmal Nagar has reaped the fruit of Prime Minister Modi and the RSS' work, but he doesn't have a personal connection with the voters in Rajgarh. Raja Saheb, on the other hand, has friends and well-wishers in every village. He remembers them by name, and they also feel for him. Since this is his last election, he will surely win the seat.”Shyam Dangi
While Singh might have spiced the battleground in Rajgarh, around 120 km away, his former colleague and now a sworn political rival Jyotiraditya Scindia is looking to regain his momentum and get over the shocking defeat of the 2019 parliamentary elections.
Scindia Looks to Reclaim Guna Post-2019 Shocker
Jyotiraditya Scindia’s four-time streak from the Guna Lok Sabha constituency had ended in 2019, after his close associate KP Yadav handed him a shocking defeat while contesting on a BJP ticket.
Scindia, who later defected from the Congress to the BJP, is now looking to reclaim his lost glory, albeit under the aegis of the BJP this time.
The Congress, on the other hand, has taken a cue from the BJP’s playbook and fielded Rao Yadvendra Singh, a Yadav against Scindia.
The Yadav community holds the deciding votes in the Guna seat, which covers eight Assembly constituencies. Of these, the BJP holds six constituencies while Congress MLAs have two seats.
Guna has traditionally been a borough of the Scindia family, with Vijaya Raje Scindia winning the first election held here in 1957. In 1971, Vijaya Raje's son Madhavrao Scindia contested on a Jana Sangh ticket and won the very first election he contested here. After Madhavrao’s death in 2001, his son Jyotiraditya contested the by-elections held in 2002 and continued the legacy.
Jyotiraditya not only won his very first election that year but also the public's trust, which was clear from his victory from Guna even in 2014, when anti-Congress sentiments were high and veteran Congress leaders faced defeat.
However, the smooth run came to an abrupt shock in 2019, when Scindia’s close aid and understudy KP Yadav defeated him after contesting on the BJP ticket.
Talking to The Quint, Rachna Yadav from the Guna district says, “We have been the voters of Maharaj for generations but in the last elections, we voted for our community leader. Now that the Yadav community is supporting Maharaj again, we will bless him with our votes hoping that he provides employment to our children.”
Rachna is a mother of two engineering students pursuing their education from Bhopal.
Another youth from the Yadav community, however, claims that the youth would first analyse the promises made by both parties and then decide who to vote for.
“It's tough for youngsters right now, there aren't many jobs, and the issue of price rise is troubling us all. I am a student. My college fees and accommodation expenses have all gone up over the years, so people of my age are still undecided,” the youth says.
Local journalists from Guna also claim that Scindia has an edge over the others.
“Last time, his close associate, who knew a lot of his tactics from the playbook, got the support of the BJP and defeated Scindia. This time Scindia's personal vote bank, coupled with the BJP's, has given him a major edge against his counterpart. The only thing to be seen is how much of the Yadav vote bank will stay consolidated,” a journalist, wishing not to be named, tells The Quint.
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