On Thursday, 6 January, West Bengal reported 15,421 fresh cases of COVID-19 – in what is being seen as an exponential surge of cases in the state, specifically in Kolkata which reported 6569 fresh cases on the same day.
This comes shortly after the state saw massive crowds for Christmas and New Year celebrations, and preparations for the upcoming municipal corporation elections are in full swing.
Despite the government putting restrictions in place, the state is still reeling from the aftermath of the week gone by, as cases continue to rise at an alarming rate. With several healthcare staff and doctors being one of the most affected groups this time, the state might be staring at an impending manpower crisis.
The Quint talked to critical care specialist of Medica Hospital Aviral Roy and analyzed the data provided by the Government of West Bengal between 1st January 2022 and 6th January 2022, to understand the extent, severity and impact of the ‘third wave’ of COVID-19.
Daily Cases and Hospitalizations
Cases in West Bengal continue to almost double every two-three days, as on 1st January the state reported 4512 new cases, while on the 6th it reported 15,421 cases.
However, what has been interesting this time is the rate of hospitalisation. Hospitalisation rate has been comparatively lower in comparison to the second wave of the pandemic. If we analyse two dates from the second wave during the time when West Bengal clocked 13,000-15,000 daily positive cases, the difference is stark.
On 24th April 2021, when Bengal reported 14,281 cases, the rate of hospitalisation stood at 46.9 percent. This was the time when the second wave was yet to peak in the state. On 27th May, 2021, the state (which was on the downward curve), had reported 13,046 cases, it still saw a very high hospitalisation rate at 34.62 percent.
If put in contrast with this time, hospitalisation rate stood at 4.07 percent on 6th January, with 2228 patients in hospitals.
Dr Roy says that the biggest factor behind the low rate of hospitalisation can be attributed to vaccines. “Because a large population has been injected with at least one dose, so that has decreased the severity of the disease and thus most people affected are showing either mild or no symptoms,” he added.
Almost all the high-risk individuals have been vaccinated by now, and that has prevented them from being hospitalised as the severity has been very low.Aviral Roy, Critical Care Specialist, Medica Hospitals
However, a closer look at the hospitalisation rate over the past few days will show that the rate has in fact doubled since 1st January, from 1002 to 2228 on 6th January.
So, despite a low rate, hospitalisation is still increasing. Roy says that it can be because of the “surge happening suddenly”.
Because people are getting infected very quickly, hospitalisation has been delayed, as the effects of the virus can take time to manifest.Aviral Roy, Critical Care Specialist, Medica Hospitals
He further added that hospitalisation will increase as the days progress, but he is confident that there will not be “a crisis like last time”. He says that the logistics is “sorted” and the state is better prepared to tackle the surge.
Positivity Rate and Demography
In contrast to the second wave, this time, however, the positivity rate has been very high. While on 24th April 2021, the positivity rate stood at 7.2 percent, on 6th January 2022, the positivity rate was at 24.71 percent, despite almost the same number of samples being tested.
Roy says that this high positivity is also because most of the cases come from urban and sub-urban areas like Kolkata, Howrah and North 24 Parganas, in what he calls a “self-inflicted disaster.”
He adds, “because this wave came in so suddenly and since the infection rate has been very high, the wave will also pass sooner than its predecessors.” He estimates that the ‘third wave’ should pass in a month or so.
However, he mentions that there will be severe cases in people with comorbidities, especially those who haven’t been vaccinated or have not been infected before.
To Panic or Not to Panic
The government of West Bengal has put several restrictions in place to tackle the surge and has even cancelled or postponed scheduled events like the Kolkata International Film Festival.
Bengal currently has a total of 33350 COVID beds with 30249 available at the time of writing this article. Vaccinations are also being carried out constantly with the state having vaccinated 10,65,03,115 people by 6th January.
There have been several instances of locals flouting COVID norms in the outskirts of Kolkata and in other districts. These districts are also seeing political rallies and door-to-door campaigns for the upcoming municipal elections.
Dr Roy believes that the state is prepared to effectively tackle the third wave and has the logistics to do so. Communication remains key.
But the buck also stops with the people who will have to diligently follow the norms, mask up and take all precautions necessary.
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