Two days ago I categorically stated in a television programme that it is not the best of times to play cricket with Pakistan unless it came half-way on the issue of state sponsored terror in India. There was much support for that stance on social media just as there seems to be for the NSA-level talks in Bangkok, which is evident from the muted statements and lack of vitriol on TV news channels. Even Congress spokesmen were supportive.
What changed India’s stance and, more importantly, has it changed at all? India has stuck to its Ufa position and kept its red lines intact. Except on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, and there too it is evident that the discussions were more over issues relating to cross-border firing and infiltration and less on political aspects.
Regardless of mistakes made even by experienced practitioners such as Sartaj Aziz, talks without J&K on the agenda would just not be acceptable. The insistence on maintaining the Ufa agenda with its ‘no J&K’ content was only a tactical ploy prior to the aborted NSA talks in New Delhi.
Taking Ufa Agenda Forward
- Choice of a third location away from the
sub-continent met India’s needs perfectly as the Hurriyat could easily be
out-manoeuvered
- NSA talks at Bangkok strengthens India’s notion
of nurturing democratic institutions in Pakistan for better relations
- Stakes are high on part of Pakistan to take the
Ufa agenda forward, thus Nawaz Sharif could not be seen to be dithering or less
interested
- Presence of the Indian foreign minister and a
high-power delegation sends many positive signals about its sense of
responsibility
Third-Country Choice
The choice of a third location away from the sub-continent met India’s needs perfectly as the Hurriyat could easily be out-manoeuvered. For the Indian government there is an additional plus. There have been many suggestions that India must attempt to speak directly to the Pakistan military establishment which actually runs the country’s foreign policy or at least sub-continent-related foreign policy.
The perception in India has all along been that speaking to Pakistan’s military only legitimises the latter’s hold over the political establishment and it is India’s take that democratic institutions in Pakistan must be nurtured for better relations. In the NSA talks at Bangkok India has achieved a half-way mark.
Since military-military or political-military engagement has never been possible we have a political-quasi military engagement since the Pakistan NSA Lt Gen Nasser Khan Janjua retired from active service just two months ago. He is known to be supported by Gen Raheel Sharif and is likely to brief him in a language the Pakistan military likes to hear.
Pakistan’s Stakes
It is equally important to assess what Pakistan’s stakes were/are in taking forward the slightly modified Ufa agenda. No doubt, the initiative came from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his outreach to his counterpart Nawaz Sharif would only get him greater political mileage and reputation of statesmanship. Nawaz Sharif could not be seen to be dithering or less interested; he made that quite evident in his post-summit statements.
Islamabad’s Other Reasons
Yet there are other reasons why Pakistan also jumped at Modi’s offer and that too quickly. First, it has a new NSA, a military man and that makes the Pakistan army much more comfortable with decisions. Secondly, and this is escaping many observers in India, the Heart of Asia conference under the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan will take place between December 8 and 10 in Islamabad.
This is to be attended by ministerial representatives from 14 regional countries, including China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and the CARs. There will be officials from 17 other countries from the West and Japan. It is one of the largest conferences being held in Pakistan in many years.
Pakistan isn’t quite perceived as a nation of virtue. It is reluctantly granted its space in Afghanistan because it is the only country with its tentacles firmly embedded there. It is not about Afghanistan alone, it’s much to do with Pakistan’s reputation as a nation: the perception that it is the core of international terror.
No Positives
Pakistan can well perceive that there are no positives coming its way. Although on the face of it Pakistan has supposedly made great foreign policy gains in the last one year with the much hyped CEPC and improved relations with Russia, all this doesn’t offset the larger perception of it being a not-too-responsible nation.
Besides, its relationship with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is at its nadir after the high it achieved a year ago. International politics is dynamic. The situation a year ago has dramatically changed and especially so after the Paris terrorist attacks. Worries about Daesh are more real and Pakistan continues to be linked to international terror.
Conciliatory Gesture a Face Saver
In the face of all this a conciliatory gesture towards India is a great face saver. The presence of the Indian foreign minister and a high-power delegation sends many positive signals about its sense of responsibility. To top it, acceptance by India of inclusion of a J&K related agenda, in whatever form, plays to the galleries at home.
Twenty-four hours after the NSA talks it appears that there is a win-win here for both nations. India is certifying nothing, only making symbolic gestures which hopefully will be respected by the Pakistan establishment. More than India-Pakistan relations, the immediate fallout we should observe is the way India plays its stakes at the Heart of Asia Conference and there is no reason it won’t play them well.
(The writer, a former GOC of the army’s 15 Corps, is now associated with Vivekanand International Foundation and Delhi Policy Group)
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