On 3 June, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) organised a gathering of national opposition leaders in Chennai. This was not only to felicitate veteran politician M Karunanidhi on his 94th birthday, but also to announce the arrival of a broad, anti-BJP front in Tamil Nadu.
How relevant is the BJP here, and does it need such an effort to put down the ruling party at the Centre, remain moot questions at this stage.
Even the Congress, which ruled the state from pre-Independence till 1967, remains on the sidelines, trying to piggyback on the AIADMK or the DMK in order to win a few seats.
The BJP in the state has managed to win a couple of Assembly constituencies and even an occasional Parliament seat. But today, it's score is a dismal zero in Tamil Nadu.
This begs the question – does it need so much noise to put down the BJP in Tamil Nadu?
After AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa’s demise, there is a perceived political vacuum in the state. The DMK feels this is the most opportune time to return to power, as the AIADMK is rudderless and a divided house.
For their own survival and future, both factions of the ruling party are trying to be as friendly as possible to the Modi government in Delhi.
The BJP eyes the AIADMK as a potential ally. More importantly, it wants the party’s 50 MPs and about 130-odd MLAs to support its presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the July election.
The Left parties, which joined the opposition’s gathering, have not made up their mind on any alliance for the future. They too are looking only at the presidential election for now.
There could be an alliance between the DMK and the Left for an Assembly election, if it comes before 2019. It will help them win a few seats each. The Congress and the DMK are already allies and shall remain so.
‘Where is the BJP?’
The question is: where is the BJP in Tamil Nadu? Still at the starting line. There seems to be soft Hindutva constituency in the state, but it will not waste its votes if the candidates cannot win the seat.
Also, this is a thinly spread matrix which needs to be nurtured. The BJP is without a capable leader in the state. The likes of Tamilisai Sundararajan cannot provide the required leadership. There are also a handful of second-line leaders, who have cultivated their own following.
The only hope for the BJP is to attract superstar Rajinikanth to accept the state leadership of the party.
Rajinikanth recently hinted at entering politics. However, he is known to have cold feet and is likely to pull back in a challenging environment. His primary concern now will be to ensure the success of his upcoming films – including one produced by his son-in-law, Dhanush. He will not allow its commercial success to be threatened by his entry into politics.
But it is the BJP's only hope to make a mark in Tamil Nadu. Unless the party can provide strong and charismatic leadership, it cannot hope to make it big in this state. Modi's charisma alone cannot win elections or seats in Tamil Nadu.
The other possibility is of an alliance with one faction of the AIADMK, but it seems too early to estimate their popular strength right now.
(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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