Will President Donald Trump’s campaign of ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran, stumble into war by accident, miscalculation, or misreading of signals? The similarities to the 2003 build-up against Iraq, which led to the most unnecessary and destructive war, are eerie. And at least one key actor – US National Security Adviser John Bolton – is a common factor. Bolton, who also worked in the George W Bush administration, has long advocated regime change in Iran.
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Then, as now, US ‘Intelligence’ – Iranian missiles being loaded on boats and proxy groups being activated – has made an appearance in a replay of ‘evidence’ of Iraq’s non-existent nuclear weapons programme.
Unlike Bush, Trump Isn’t Putty In the Hands Of ‘Hawks’. Or Is He?
Then as now, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, went to Europe to make his case and gin up support against Iran, just as Colin Powell had stood before the United Nations to sell a pre-emptive war against Iraq. Europe’s answer this time is a firm and somewhat impolite ‘No’.
Then, as now, a chorus of stray Republicans raising heat, is akin to the old gang of neoconservatives who provided the ideological justification for the Iraq War and for unilateralism, for complete US military dominance, and restructuring of the Middle East.
But there is one major difference: while Bush was putty in the hands of neocons and his ultra-hawkish Vice President, Dick Cheney, Trump, on the other hand, wants to disentangle the US from foreign wars, not embroil it in new ones.
Unsurprisingly, Cheney’s daughter Liz Cheney, a Republican member of the House of Representatives, argued that the current intelligence on Iranian moves warrants escalation against Iran. Angry exchanges followed – this time around, the Democrats are unlikely to sign off on a new war.
Some Democrats are saying that Iran’s moves are in response to the pressure the Trump administration has put, especially the tightening of sanctions and the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group.
Trump Should Have Little Difficulty In Clamping Down On the ‘Hawks’
With no allies willing to come aboard Bolton’s and Pompeo’s bus to war, the domestic appetite near zero, the Pentagon advocating discretion, Trump should have little difficulty clamping down on the hawks. The Pentagon knows full well that Iran is a different level of adversary – it is not a Syria or a Libya.
But the Europeans believe Bolton and Pompeo are pushing Trump to a series of steps that could lead to war before he realises it. The question is, whether he will stick with his gut instinct of ‘no more foreign wars’ or be herded into one unsuspectingly?
The good news as of now: both The New York Times and The Washington Post have reported that Trump is holding firm.
He is ‘annoyed’ with his top advisers acting too war-like. He doesn’t like the ‘regime change’ talk, or the preparations for readying 120,000 troops for potential deployment.
It’s self-evident that any war would destabilise the Middle East, disrupt oil supplies and affect the wider region, including India. Oil prices will shoot up, creating a huge problem for the incoming government in New Delhi.
Iran Yet To ‘Call’ Trump
Last week, Trump told reporters he wanted Iran to ‘call’ him. It was an almost plaintive request from a man looking for a way out, while keeping Israel and Saudi Arabia satisfied. A direct number was passed on to the Swiss government, which represents US interests in Tehran.
“We are not looking to hurt Iran. I want them to be strong and great and have a great economy,” Trump said.
But Iran has not called. Instead, the Iranian government announced it would not abide by the nuclear deal, and begin storing enriched uranium instead of selling it, as called for in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) despite European pleas not to go down that path.
Best For Iran To Reach A Negotiation With US?
Iran’s economy is seriously hurting with oil exports down to almost zero – India had no choice but to comply with the stringent US sanctions. No country, including India, can afford to dissociate itself from the dollar-dominated global financial system. For Indian banks and oil majors, siding with Iran against the US would be suicide.
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj pushed the can down the road when she told visiting Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, that the new government would make the decision on whether to continue buying Iranian oil, and how to pay for it. It was an easy roundabout to take.
Some Indian officials believe that it would be best for Iran to reach accommodation with the US and end the worldwide pain.
Iran may find Trump a willing interlocutor – as long as Tehran knows how to finesse, massage his ego and open negotiations.
But domestic pressure on President Hassan Rouhani from Iranian hardliners is growing – his brother was jailed earlier this month on corruption charges. The head of the judiciary is taking potshots at Rouhani and the officers of the IRGC have been mocking the government.
Iran Should Look To Saudi’s ‘Sword Dance Welcome’ To Trump
What Trump wants is a renegotiated nuclear agreement with Iran that has his name on it, not Barack Obama’s. He walked out of the JCPOA last year, imposed unilateral sanctions, encircled buyers of Iranian oil such as India, and thought the pressure would make Tehran come to the table.
Iran’s leadership would do well to seriously consider Trump’s offer – take a lesson from Saudi Arabia’s sword dance-welcome to the US president who likes being wooed. Iran should also discard the ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’ rhetoric.
Trump’s door is open, and an Iranian overture still has time to work before Bolton’s push ripens into something dangerous. The State Department has already ordered the evacuation of non-essential personnel from its embassy in Baghdad. US Central Command is moving aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Persian Gulf, along with a squadron of B-52 bombers.
Difference Between War And NOT War
The US ‘Intelligence’ cited thus far, to warrant these moves consists of images of missiles being loaded on boats by members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard at various ports, which was seen by some in Washington as ‘mobilization’ by Iran.
Reports of commercial ships being targeted have also emerged. US officials have talked about conversations between Iran and foreign militias it controls, about attacks on US troops in Iraq.
Iran’s counter-escalation could either drive a sharper wedge between Trump and Bolton and spread some of the risks to the US, or push Trump to go along with Bolton, especially if Tehran tries adventurism. And therein lies the difference between war and not war. Peace is not a word one can use at this time.
(The writer is a senior Washington-based journalist. She can be reached at @seemasirohi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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