Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan can go home satisfied and declare a political victory. He got President Donald Trump to offer to mediate in Kashmir, and subvert stated US policy.
That it caused a political storm in New Delhi was a bonus for Khan and for Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Bajwa, who is also here along with the ISI chief. In Trump’s mind, India and Pakistan became twins who accuse each other of interference in equal measure – he said as much, while answering a question about India’s alleged interference in Balochistan.
The trio is doing brisk business around Washington, playing on the Trump Administration’s desperation to get out of Afghanistan. Bajwa got a ceremonial welcome at the Pentagon, and he went to the Arlington National Cemetery to pay tribute to US soldiers.
Trump’s ‘Kashmir’ Comment May Have Achieved A ‘Reset’ Of US-Pak Relations
From Pakistan’s point of view, the high-level attention and Trump’s statements on Kashmir are nothing short of a coup – even if after his ill-informed tweet on Hafiz Saeed, when Trump thought the “so-called” mastermind of the Mumbai attacks was finally behind bars.
Facts and the US President have a complicated relationship, but this one served Pakistan well. Add to that a 20,000-strong “jalsa” with Pakistani Americans at a local stadium where Khan was welcomed like a rock star, with thousands of iPhones lighting up the arena as he walked in.
The visit may have managed to achieve a “reset” of sorts in US-Pakistan relations, which was the primary objective.
Yes, the Trump Administration wants Pakistan to continue delivering and do more in shutting down terrorist groups “once and for all,” as a White House statement said. But those demands pale in comparison to Trump’s over-enthusiastic welcome to Khan, and the claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had asked him to mediate in the Kashmir dispute.
Damage Control Post Trump’s ‘Kashmir’ Remark
India had no option but to reject Trump’s statements on Kashmir. Being forced to go publicly against the US President was not something the Indian foreign office would have enjoyed. US officials faced a dilemma too – they couldn’t go against the President, but they also couldn’t let his ramblings ruin relations with a close friend.
Alice Wells, the acting assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, felt compelled to tweet on Monday evening after Trump’s Kashmir remarks to clarify, amend, and walk Trump’s remarks back. Her statement was careful, giving both India and Pakistan to take something home.
“While Kashmir is a bilateral issue for both parties to discuss, the Trump Administration welcomes #Pakistan and #India sitting down and the United States stands ready to assist,” she wrote on Twitter.
The “bilateral” bit is for India, while US standing “ready to assist” is to please Pakistan.
The Democrats, on the other hand, used Trump’s mediation offer as an opportunity to school him. They swiftly issued statements in India’s support and ridiculed the unwanted intervention.
Imran Khan & Trump: ‘Brothers In Arms’?
Eliot Engel, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, spoke with India’s Ambassador Harsh Shringla, to reiterate his support for the “longstanding US position on the Kashmir dispute” for a dialogue between India and Pakistan. He added that for the dialogue to be meaningful, Pakistan “must first take concrete and irreversible steps to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure.”
Indian diplomats were scrambling to stem the damage as were their counterparts in the State Department.
Trump had created a hole, which if not filled quickly, could only deepen.
Khan, meanwhile, was going from meeting to meeting, telling one and all how “naya” his Pakistan was, and how serious his commitment to ending corruption was.
Imran Khan was laughing away questions about press freedom and harassment, something in which he once again found a partner in Trump.
Khan’s performance at the White House and then at the US Institute of Peace, where Pakistani leaders are handled with kid gloves because of a pro-Pakistan tilt, was earnest in tone and short on facts. Sometimes he gave an alternate version of history but no one was fact-checking him.
In the end it doesn’t matter, because the main objective of Khan’s visit is to assure the Americans, that he is working hard on getting the Taliban to cooperate on a time-table that suits Trump’s election strategy.
Pakistan’s help is crucial, and will remain so for some time.
America’s Need & Pakistan’s Opportunity
The Pakistan Army-ISI combine has calibrated its steps with precision, first recognising that Trump meant business when he cut security assistance to Pakistan, including funding for training and weapons for Bajwa’s boys, and then assessing correctly that it was time to pivot somewhat, and deliver the Taliban to the table.
Granting Khan a White House visit was the first installment of the complex calculations on both sides.
Americans clearly decided it a small price to pay for continued Pakistani cooperation.
To help open the White House door, several prominent leaders lobbied on Khan’s behalf. Reports have named Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who is Trump’s adviser, friend and golfing buddy.
Whether MBS or Graham got Khan an audience, the overarching context is one of America’s need and Pakistan’s opportunity. The two are blending again in Afghanistan, with Pakistan’s geography acting as the glue.
Trump’s ‘Kashmir’ Remark: A ‘Small Price’ To Please Pakistan?
US Representative for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, has managed to get the peace talks going with the Taliban with Pakistan’s help, even as the Taliban continue their murderous spree. The American interest is to continue the talks, hammer out a framework agreement, and make an exit.
If that is the prize, Trump’s ruminations on Kashmir to please the Pakistanis are but a small price.
But going overboard and claiming that Modi had asked him personally to mediate was something that no one believed – not even his own bureaucracy.
But then it is a truth universally acknowledged, that Trump has no affinity for briefing books or learning about an issue before plunging in.
Also certain is the fact that US officials would have told him about India’s opposition to third-party mediation, and Pakistan’s insistence on it.
He might have retained some aspects and decided – as is Trump’s tendency – to freelance thereafter, and connect disparate issues to gain leverage. Was Trump sending a message to India that things can turn sour if New Delhi doesn’t do the “needful” – that is, sign a few defence contracts for starters?
A New Element Of Uncertainty In India-US Ties, Thanks To Trump’s ‘Gaffe’
Given the turmoil in New Delhi that Trump has created, the question is whether he will double down and insist that Modi did indeed request his help, or back off. Either way, Donald Trump has introduced a new element of uncertainty and irritation in India-US relations, which already are burdened with a mountain of trade disputes and worries about the impending US departure from Afghanistan.
His officials will likely tell him about India’s importance in the Indo-Pacific strategy of the US, a key initiative of the Trump Administration to manage the rise of China.
They will also tell him about the strategic partnership and finally, the size of US equities in India.
India is a major defence partner of the US, something that could be important for a transactional person like Trump who sees defence sales as a major component of his foreign policy. But for that, the ship of Indian state has to move more than at a glacial pace.
The coming days and weeks will show whether there would be any serious fallout from Trump’s comments on Kashmir. The Indian foreign policy establishment is probably doing a reassessment of Trump and his unpredictability.
His disruptive tendencies were once hailed in New Delhi for creating more openings and options for India. Not so, anymore.
(The writer is a senior Washington-based journalist. She can be reached at @seemasirohi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)