Much has been said and written about the Congress’ efforts to cobble an anti-BJP coalition for the upcoming parliamentary elections, but the BJP, despite its noises about weak and corrupt coalition governments, is not hunting alone either. After firming up an alliance in Bihar, it has recently sealed deals in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and is now expected to turn its attention to the key battleground state of Uttar Pradesh.
The alliance-making efforts of the two national parties are in acknowledgment of a common reality:
That entrenched regional parties and other smaller ones with seat/caste/region-specific catchments are set to determine not only the final poll outcome but also chances of government formation.
There are 14 large states (states with 10 or more parliamentary seats), together accounting for 411 parliamentary seats (about three-fourths of the total), where such parties have serious traction.
To determine which national party holds the edge insofar as alliance-making is concerned, it is useful to look at these 14 states in four blocs.
1. States Where Both National Parties Are Among the Top Contenders
These are Assam, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka and Maharashtra, which together account for 114 parliamentary seats.
Neither the BJP nor the Congress seems keen on making an effort with the imploding INLD in Haryana, which is an advantage for the Congress. The INC has sealed or is close to sealing alliances in Jharkhand, Karnataka and Maharashtra and has greater chances of drawing the AUDF into its fold if the post-poll scenario requires.
The BJP, on the other hand, has lost an important ally in Assam, added no ammunition in Jharkhand, and the saffron alliance it has managed to salvage in Maharashtra may not recapture its 2014 mojo given the rancor that has seeped between the partners lately.
2. States Where Both National Parties Are Fringe Players
These are Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, which together account for 68 parliamentary seats.
Andhra Pradesh may well see both national parties pressing forth alone but at least one of the two top contenders’ doors appear shut to the BJP when it comes to a post-poll alliance.
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is content to follow front-runner DMK while the BJP will be riding piggyback on a party (the AIADMK) that is looking up to the BJP to lend its campaign fresh legs! Here too then, it is an advantage for Congress.
3. States Where Congress Holds the Edge over BJP (But Not Necessarily Other Parties)
These are Kerala, Punjab and Telengana, which together account for 46 parliamentary seats. In these states, the BJP’s best hopes are of a post-poll understanding with the TRS.
It is friendless in Kerala and the internal woes of its long standing senior Punjab ally are far from comforting. The Congress, meanwhile, looks comfortable in Punjab and will fancy its chances in Kerala.
4. States Where BJP Holds The Edge Over Congress, But Not Others
These are Bihar, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which together account for 183 parliamentary seats. In alliance terms, the BJP is not in the best place when it comes to these states. Neither is the Congress but then it did not start with grand ambitions from these states.
In Bihar, the BJP has conceded much to Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan, flip-floppers both, and the vote transfer from Nitish’s JD-U to it may not be as seamless as it would seem.
In Odisha and West Bengal, the BJP has little tipping-point support and will face off with the Trinamool and BJD alone (or in alliance with largely untested partners).
And, in Uttar Pradesh, taking on the formidable BSP-SP-RLD combine will not be easy for the BJP – even if the SBSP is placated, the one faction of the Apna Dal that is with it proves the right horse to back, and a host of election-eve sprouting parties are yoked in either as allies or ‘vote katuas’.
That said, if there is one state where the Congress’ alliance strategy can be faulted, it is Uttar Pradesh.
Blooding Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is a bold gamble and may well have medium-term dividends but from the 2019 perspective, it will work only if the Congress ends up drawing more from the BJP’s upper caste vote than from the BSP-SP core vote.
That looks tough at the moment. There is, of course, the tantalising prospect of Priyanka actually negotiating a more respectable space for the Congress in the BSP-SP-RLD coalition. Now, that would be a true political masterstroke!
(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and crime fiction writer, and can be reached on Twitter at@ManishDubey1972. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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