The year 2017 ends on a peculiar note. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which enjoyed success in state assembly elections and government installation efforts through much of the year, enters 2018 with a queasy feeling building within, while the opposition, outsmarted for the most part, has a spring in its step. Three factors that were not in evidence a year ago, explain this somewhat counter-intuitive situation.
One: Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks fallible. The image of a leader who knew exactly what the country needed – and would ensure that it happened, as he had done in Gujarat – has suffered.
More than three years into its term, the Modi Sarkar looks clueless on several fronts. It has struggled to deliver jobs, address technology, infrastructure and market issues in the farm sector, and find durable solutions to internal and external security challenges.
Further, its cultural agenda sits uncomfortably with the liberal moorings of the Constitution, and it is difficult to shake off the feeling that its much touted infrastructure creation record depends much on appropriation of others’ achievements and clever embellishments of its own. Serious allegations of corruption and cronyism are floating too, with the silence around them cementing perceptions of guilt.
Some of the above would still have been looked at charitably had Modi demonstrated turnaround capacity.
Does Modi Deserve ‘Know-All, Can Do’ Tag?
However, his most ambitious policy measures have only raised doubts around whether his ‘know-all, can-do’ aura is deserved. Demonetisation, despite the initial enthusiasm manufactured around it and some frantic goalpost shifting, turned out to be the disaster every sane person predicted it to be – and led to the first widespread wonderment on whether Modi has the foresight and empathy his adherents see in him, and whether he prioritises the headline-grabbing gesture over the substantive. The hastily-introduced Goods and Service Tax regime has reinforced those questions.
To top it all, the Gujarat Model, on which Modi’s good governance promise has hinged, lies exposed. The Congress’ spirited show in recent assembly elections to the state owed much to the resonance its attack on the Gujarat Model carried with rural voters.
So much so that Modi was loath to mention the Gujarat Model during his campaign and was compelled to resort to diversionary personal attacks and conspiracy theories instead.
The Emergence of Rahul 2.0
Two: Rahul Gandhi has emerged in a new avatar. A year ago, he was perceived a gaffe-prone, reluctant politician, lacking both ambition and tools to take on the formidable Modi. Not so anymore.
The new Rahul punches smartly – frequently sending the BJP top brass into a tizzy –and exudes resolve. The change is reassuring not only for the Congress, but the opposition at large. It signals that the centerpiece of the resistance to the BJP stands reinforced.
Crucially, the new Rahul asserts himself in a manner markedly different from Modi. He is not abrasive, appears to carry no personal animus, makes no attempt to milk his personal struggles, and avoids divisive pitches.
Importantly, he openly invites engagement with dissenting positions, and his themes suggest a steadfast focus on issues concerning the unemployed, farmers, unorganised workers, and small businesses.
At a time when the PM’s credibility is under a cloud, his once-exciting speeches have started carrying the whiff of melodrama, and the failures of the Modi Sarkar have come to be ascribed to misplaced priorities and inflexible attitudes, the new Rahul conveys a certain sincerity and has, expectedly, started to cut ice.
Given his party’s sizeable (if truncated over time) pan-India footprint, Rahul may well emerge as the rallying point that anti-BJP forces have been scouting for if he maintains present energy levels.
Has BJP Hurt Regional Pride?
Three: The BJP’s project of socio-cultural hegemony has created dissonances. Attempts to impose Hindi and vegetarianism, introduce Sanskritic flavors in local celebrations, and meddle with local histories in a bid to open up politically advantageous cleavages, have hurt regional pride. This, together with crude attempts at political appropriation of official events and long-held concerns over discrimination in resource transfers, gives the regional parties much ammunition against the BJP.
The embarrassment in the RK Nagar bypoll, the limited traction its protests over political killings in Kerala drew, and a clear disconnect between pre-election hype and post-election reality in various polls in West Bengal, all point to the BJP’s flawed approach to winning hearts outside the Hindi heartland.
The other challenge to the BJP comes from young, spunky voices outside formal party structures. The likes of like Jignesh Mevani, Kanhaiya Kumar and Hardik Patel (as also the ailing Bheem Army Ekta Mission’s Chandrashekhar) do not share the BJP’s social imagination, and their declared intention to venture beyond their immediate karmbhoomis should worry the BJP.
Their non-privileged background and lack of political affiliation adds to their credibility, and their energy and irreverence could spark off wider calls for change. The BJP, which has used similar voices before, should know better than dismissing them as flash-in-the-pan freelancers.
Mevani, in fact, may have opened the floodgates for sharper attacks on Modi, with his recent advice to the PM to stop boring the public, apologies for his failures, and consider retirement.
After all, of all the names a public figure can be called, the most damning is ‘boring’. It suggests they have lost the ability to excite, and what good are sportspersons, film stars or politicians if they cannot engage their audience anymore.
That then is the big story of 2017. The superstar’s escapist output is not as engaging as it once was; his rival and other fresh faces are drawing audiences with realistic, edgier fare.
The footfalls for the latter are obviously not enough as the Gujarat experience has shown – that the Congress rattled the Modi-Amit Shah combine in home conditions, but finally found itself short of the numbers, should alert the opposition both to the possibilities and limitations of its presentation – but the box office jackpot does not appear elusive anymore. A better-knit script could do the trick.
(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and crime fiction writer and can be contacted @ManishDubey1972. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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