.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&fmt=webp&width=720)
Tamil Nadu’s politics certainly has a theatrical aspect to it. Look at O Panneerselvam invoking Amma’s spirit for instance, or for Sasikala’s ‘lion’ metaphor. There’s no end to the suspense that’s rolling out bit by bit everyday. Here are a few points to ponder upon until the matter settles down once and for all!
Sasikala Leaves Us Speechless and OPS ka Lajawaab Jawaab
More than the content of their speeches, it is the manner in which they have been delivered, that has captured the attention of the people of Tamil Nadu.
When OPS started to speak, after his 40 minute meditation long at Amma's memorial a week ago, it was a historic moment, because, that would be the first time the people of Tamil Nadu would actually hear OPS speak; by then memes of him eating 'mixture' (a south indian condiment) instead of raising his voice, were rampant in social media.
Sasikala's speech at the Golden resorts, on Sunday, preceded by her interaction with the press, were no less revelatory. So far, she has only read out what was written on a piece of paper she kept referring to every few seconds. In the absence of a paper, as was the case when she responded to OPS's first speech, she came through as a juvenile, both in the content of the speech (OPS is colluding with DMK, because I saw both of them smile at each other at the assembly the other day), and in her mannerisms; she would use both hands to explain simple sentences, like she were speaking to a class of kindergarteners.
More importantly, it raises questions about her capability as an administrator, irrespective of whether the people of TN like her or not. She has shown mettle, as well as the ability to mould opinion in mass media.
However, OPS, in his response to Sasikala's speech at the Golden Resorts, turned all of Sasikala's vitriol and tears into one big joke.
He said no one was fooled by her 'crocodile tears', and that no one in their right minds would call themselves a 'lion'. He further alleged that Sasikala put him through torture, even when Amma was alive, and that was why he refused the Chief Ministerial post when it was offered to him; because he knew what it would be like, to be a CM 'under' Sasikala.
As mentioned, while it does get into mud-slinging, it's about the manner in which the political siblings from the same 'Amma' are attacking each other that's more interesting to watch.
Is the Governor Right in Stalling?
As Chidambaram said in his interview to The Hindu, 'constitutionally, the governor is bound to swear in the leader who has been elected by the party that enjoys a majority. There is, however a small window, where the Governor can exercise his discretion and say, 'for the following reasons, I would like to wait for a few days.' It has not been tested constitutionally yet, but I believe it is available to the Governor.
So, what would be the Governor's reason for stalling? The Supreme Court verdict on the disproportionate assets case against Sasikala. The verdict is due anytime this week (not Monday, since this case wasn't on the roster). Had the Governor sworn Sasikala in last week, and the verdict goes against her, she would have to step down barely a few days after she becomes CM. This would be an embarrassment to the Governor, and would again put the political machinery of the state off gear.
So yes, the Governor is right in stalling, thought this would be the first time he has done it, in Indian history.
The Numbers for Majority
OPS is currently backed by 11 party MPs and 6 party MLAs. That isn't much, compared to the 129 party members in Sasikala's custod...ahem camp. But then typically, when asking for a majority at the assembly, the different stakeholders are separated into six groups or so. So Sasikala would be called in first, for example. And those in favour would raise their hands, those against would stand, and those who wish to do neither would move out.
This includes the opposition, which, in this case, is the DMK.
The DMK is a large oppostion, which had secured 40 odd seats in the elections last April.
Stalin has openly given his support to OPS as CM. If the DMK sides with OPS, then this outcome is imminent.
The Golden Cage
On Wednesday, Sasikala herded her MLAs in minibuses to the Golden Bay Resorts. It is believed that their phones too have been confiscated. As yet, there is no proof to indicate otherwise. Kuvathur, the place where the resort is situated seems to be in a state of emergency. Local's vehicles are being checked without warning or permission, and no one, not even a cop is allowed inside the resort. A private security force ostensibly for the protection of the MLAs has been stationed around the resort.
It is only after a day long protest that Sasikala finally agreed to speak with the media, and then finally let them in. Despite the fact that the MLAs were paraded in front of the media, all beaming and gung ho about Chinnamma, it is a fact that they are still being kept under wraps.
On the one hand, it reeks of self-doubt and fear that they might shift camp. On the other, OPS's ministers, and all of his activities so far have been in the public eye, thereby making what Sasikala has done seem all the more dubious and overly dramatic.
Despite the tears, and the rousing extempore, Sasikala is yet to gain the people's trust or support.
Section 164 (4)
According to the constitution, 'A minister who, for a period of six consecutive months is not a member of the legislature of the state, shall, at the expiration of that period, cease to be the Minister.'
This is the rule that lawyers in favour of OPS chose to use against Sasikala being sworn in as CM. Sasikala is not yet a member of the legislature.
Yet, it is also true that it may not apply to the CM, while it may apply to the MLAs. Nevertheless, as was the case with Manmohan Singh's appointment as the PM, should the MLAs choose Sasikala for CM, they would still abide by the constitution, though it might be against their conscience.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)