These Five States Can Swing the 2019 Elections Likely Against Modi

Modi’s popularity is at 2.2% in one of these states, and 50% in another. But both will be important this election.

All’s not well for Prime Minister Modi in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. In today’s edition of the Big Story podcast we’ll explore what challenges lie ahead for the incumbent prime minister and his party, and where his popularity stands.

Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu – these five states together account for 249 seats in the Lok Sabha. That’s a little over 45 percent of the Lok Sabha’s strength. According to a C-Voter survey, three of these five states are dissatisfied with the BJP on multiple levels – right from the PM and the CM, to MPs and MLAs.

What do the numbers tell us? Tune in to find out.

The BJP and its allies won 144 seats from these three states in the 2014 elections. But, if the C-Voter survey’s prediction holds true, the NDA could lose close to 85 seats just from these three states.

The NDA’s overwhelming victory in 2014 was made possible by its complete sweep in Uttar Pradesh. It won 73 out of 80 seats in the state.

But five years on, it looks like the people of UP seem to be experiencing a case of buyer’s remorse. The state’s net satisfaction level with PM Modi is at 43.9 percent. Compared to other states, UP is at the 16th rank in satisfaction with Modi.

But there’s a more pressing concern staring the BJP in their face, a lot closer to home – Yogi Adityanath. The UP CM’s net satisfaction rate, from his own people no less, is at a low 22.2 percent.

As we go down the ladder, the numbers only get worse for the BJP. MPs and MLAs in UP, most who are from the BJP, have a net satisfaction rate of 8.2 percent and 11.8 percent.

The BJP will also have to account for two new factors this election.

1. A much more united Opposition. The SP, the BSP and the RLD have formed a pre-poll alliance, posing a serious threat to the BJP’s prospects in the state.
2. A Congress resurgence, riding on the back of Priyanka Gandhi’s appointment as the party’s general secretary-in-charge for eastern Uttar Pradesh.

After factoring all of this in, C-Voter has predicted that the NDA is likely to bag 29 seats in UP, a fall of 44 seats from 2014.

Now from a state that looks a little unfortunate, let’s head to a state that’s posing a bigger problem for the NDA – Tamil Nadu.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s satisfaction rating in Tamil Nadu is just a mere 2.2 percent!

The people’s dissatisfaction for the PM aside, the party seems to have chosen the wrong ally as well in the AIADMK. CM Edappadi Palaniswami’s satisfaction rating in Tamil Nadu is also in the single digits, with just a 7.7 percent satisfaction rating. Tamil Nadu’s MLAs have a slightly better percentage, at 9.9 percent. And the satisfaction rating of Tamil Nadu’s MPs is at -1.5 percent!

Again, all 39 MPs in Tamil Nadu are from the NDA, which includes the AIADMK. So, there’s headache number two.

Third, there’s Maharashtra. It has 48 Lok Sabha seats. Here, the numbers look a little better for Modi. The state’s net satisfaction with the PM is just over 47 percent. But the bad news here is for Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, whose net satisfaction rating is just 33.9 percent.

Apart from this, the state’s satisfaction with its 48 MPs is at 35.8 percent. Forty-one of these 48 MPs are from the NDA.

Definitely an improvement from the downward spiral in UP and the dumpster fire statistics in Tamil Nadu. The NDA is likely to bag 35 seats in Maharashtra in 2019. A drop of just 7 seats from 2014.

End result? The BJP is likely to lose around 85 seats in these three states.

Now let’s head over to West Bengal, where Modi faces a different problem. Given all factors, Modi has a fairly decent satisfaction rating in West Bengal at 43.2 percent. But unfortunately, West Bengal isn’t UP and CM Mamata has a much higher rating than her UP counterpart, with 45.3 percent of people surveyed expressing satisfaction with her. Adding to Mamata’s fortune in the state, 34.3 percent of people surveyed said they were satisfied with the state’s MPs, most of whom are from Mamata’s TMC.

The BJP is likely to gain six seats in West Bengal, but given that it was one of the states where the party hoped to gain massively, this paltry six seats doesn’t bode well for the NDA.

These four states aside, the situation for the NDA in Bihar is what many would call, “good. Not great.”

Both Modi and CM Nitish Kumar have a fair satisfaction rating in Bihar. Modi at 50 percent and Nitish Kumar at 55 percent. As far as MPs and MLAs go, most of whom are from the NDA, they have a satisfaction rating of 23 percent and 15 percent.

While Modi and Kumar’s popularity would make it seem like Bihar would help them make up the shortfall in seats, the problem is that the NDA got 31 seats in Bihar in 2014. This year it’s staring at a likely 36 seats. The increase of 5 seats can in no way compensate for the losses the NDA is suffering in other states.

To top this off, the survey was conducted in the wake of the Pulwama attack. And in the weeks that have followed, these numbers are likely to have fallen lower, and NOT in the NDA’s favour.

So, no matter what happens next, whether the NDA faces a severe upset, or whether they find a magical solution to this predicament, the next 8 weeks are worth watching out for!