Kerala’s Political Cauldron
- The BJP has been trying to secure a footing in the Kerala Assembly for over five decades.
- The saffron party is seeking to consolidate 54.7 percent of the Hindu population by garnering support of the Shree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP).
- The ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has recently featured in a host of controversies.
- The CPI(M) plans to project its own Ezhava leader, VS Achuthanandan.
- The RSS plans to decimate the Marxists, but it’s not an easy task.
Will God’s Own Country cash in on the political trend this time? Kerala, slated to go to polls in April-May 2016, is stirring a cauldron of political potpourri – beef, church, caste, class, corruption, sleaze and religion – that could change the existing social and political equations and throw up some surprises.
The BJP, which has been struggling to secure a seat in the Kerala assembly for over five decades, may open its account in the state, courtesy the Shree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) – an umbrella outfit of Ezhavas, a Hindu OBC group constituting 20 percent of the state’s population. They were hitherto the main support base of the CPI(M).
Congress-led UDF in Trouble
The ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is battling a host of problems, including huge anti-incumbency and corruption allegations against Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and some of his cabinet colleagues.
Finance Minister KM Mani was forced to resign last month in the wake of allegations that he had been taking bribes from bar owners. The CM has been linked to the solar scam with the prime accused, one Biju Radhakrishnan, even alleging before the G Sivarajan Commission that Chandy and his cabinet colleagues had sexual relations with a woman, who is also an accused in the scam.
The issue has provided electoral fodder to both the BJP and the CPI(M). Marxist veteran and former Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan has referred to a video allegedly related to the scam, seeking its seizure by the Commission. However, the Congress is unfazed as Chandy enjoys a clean and Spartan image.
BJP to Play the Caste Card
The BJP is not sitting idle either. It is introducing a caste element into its electoral arithmetic to fight the predominant minority groups – Muslims (26.6 percent) and Christians (18.4 percent) – both traditionally anti-BJP.
The saffron party hopes to consolidate the 54.7 percent Hindu population by roping in the SNDP. The BJP has succeeded in wooing Vellapally Natesan, a liquor baron who controls the SNDP Yogam.
At the RSS’ prodding, Natesan has launched a new political outfit with the idea of floating a third front with the BJP and some other fringe Hindu groups. In the BJP’s company, the SNDP Chief has become a polarising figure, much to the discomfiture of the Congress and the Marxists.
The CPI(M)’s Counter Strategy
To counter the BJP move to usurp the Ezhava space, the CPI(M) plans to project its own Ezhava leader, Achuthanandan (aka VS). Incidentally, the 92-year-old veteran was humiliated and sidelined by the earlier Marxist dispensation under Prakash Karat and then State Secretary Pinayari Vijayan.
The Congress had already dusted out a marginalised Ezhava leader VM Sudheeran, and anointed him KPCC president. Despite Natesan’s support, the BJP may not get the full backing of the Ezhava community. A sizeable chunk of them, especially the working class, including factory workers and farm labourers, still swear by Marxism, thanks to the CPI(M)’s cadre management and constant social bonding.
The CPI(M) and the Congress are also trying to dent Natesan’s image, painting him as a “corrupt bourgeois.” The UDF government has reopened a murder case allegedly linked to him ahead of the polls, and recently booked him for “hate speech”. The BJP-SNDP understanding notwithstanding, the CPI(M) did reasonably well in the recent local bodies’ election, scotching the perception that the Ezhavas have ditched the Marxists.
On the other hand, it was the Congress which bore the brunt, performing below par. As such, it is a bit difficult now to predict whether the Congress or the Marxists will be hit harder by the BJP-led third front. The BJP is also trying to woo the Congress’s coalition partner, Kerala Congress(M), a Church-supported party, despite corruption charges against Mani. BJP strategists are trying to rope in a section of the Christian clergy and leaders to bolster its support base.
Challenges for the RSS
There is hushed talk that the BJP may try to have some covert understanding with the Congress to undermine the CPI(M). The RSS strategy seems to be to first finish the Marxists, who, unlike the Congress, have superior lung and intellectual power to take on the Sangh Parivar. The comrades are, however, unnerved.
The party is hopeful of wresting power from the Congress, which is neither cadre-based, nor ideologically-driven with its leaders occasionally playing the soft Hindutva card. In contrast, the Marxists are ideologically cohesive with a committed cadre who wield considerable lung and muscle power.
The beef controversy and the intolerance debate have indirectly helped the CPI(M) to emerge as the champion of writers, cultural activists, artists, liberal thinkers and genuinely secular-minded people – a space which the Congress failed to grab with its lukewarm response to the controversies.
The Church traditionally supports the Congress, but in the changed political scenario, there is a growing sense that priority should be to back the party which can stop the communal juggernaut – a stand not very helpful to the Congress in the prevailing situation.
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