Sometime around mid April 2023 India became the most populous country in the world. Between 1050 and 2023 India accounted for 19.3 percent of the global population rise. India has also overtaken the economy of the UK and has become the fifth largest in terms of the GDP and still growing.
And yet in terms of per capita income it ranks amongst the poorest in the world. More than 40.5 percent of the national wealth remains concentrated in the hands of the top 1 percent of people. The bottom 10 percent of the Indian society owned nearly only 0.2 percent of the national wealth. Between 2018 and 2022 it is estimated that India produced 70 new millioners per day while 670 million (nearly the poorest half of the country) saw a 1 percent increase in their wealth.
By the year 2030, the urban population is estimated to be around 675 million (about 43.2 percent of the world) second only to China’s 1 billion. Over a billion Indians shall be in the age group of 15-64, seeking, demanding jobs. An overall approximate 26 percent of the population shall be in the age group of 10-24.
For India, the wide range of variation in spatial inequity and economic growth further compounded by the factor of caste, religion, gender, and environmental degradation is a planner’s nightmare.
And yet the magic of urbanisation is that 80 percent of global economic activity is generated on just 3 percent of the landmass. Let us look at the combined effect of these parameters on a wider canvas, the urban areasm that is, the cities. What will the city be like tomorrow? What should it be ? What matters?
Uneven Distribution of Population and Resources
The answers to these questions are far too complex and conditioned by innumerable factors. Some are global in nature and yet are likely to hit the poor all around the world much harder. Problems like climate change and global warming, air pollution, water shortage, shelter, disposal of increasing manmade waste due to rising standards of living, dependence on and rising prices of fossil fuels , wars and inter regional conflicts and above all the ever-increasing gap between the rich and the poor.
We must make predictions based on a basic premise that the supporting assumptions for a better future are at work and shall gradually fall in place because a pessimistic scenario is just not an option. The existing pattern of urbanisation has resulted in an uneven distribution of population and resources in space.
India has been a land of contradictions forever. Extreme poverty amidst the land of Maharajas is a given and is likely to be around for quite a while. This inequity manifests itself in many ways. Some we choose to ignore and some we must endure as there are no practical-implementable solutions, like urban slums, especially the slums in megacities. Despite dozens of schemes for slum rehabilitation /improvement, stories of forceful and unplanned eviction are common news.
'Rurbanisation'
The rate of urbanisation in India in the last decade has slowed down to 2.09 percent.
Another significant observation is that the residential density in metropolitan cities seems to be holding steady, or at least not growing in direct proportion to it’s population. Growth is spilling over into the areas outside the municipal boundaries as “unauthorised” enclaves, creating a situation of serious conflict with the approved ‘master plans” of these cities.
This spill over referred to as ‘peri urban’ growth is a fast emerging phenomenon called ‘rurbanisation’- the urbanisation of rural areas. Today IT makes the process of transfer of culture of the megacity to smaller towns much more easy and seamless, bringing the small towns nearer to mother cities and, raising their hopes and aspirations higher and higher.
Not that master plans don’t matter. They do. But given the fact that a majority of towns and cities(approx 65-70 percent) do not have any development plan and yet are growing is a testament to the fact that cities grow and find ways and means to accommodate a holistic acceptable development to accommodate all citizens on their own terms and in their own ways.
Introduction of the 'Smart City'
There is an indication of growth in the small class I and II towns. This should be treated as good news as these cities have been neglected for a very long time due to the non-availability of investment in basic infrastructure and basic amenities. Years of neglect of these cities have made our metros ‘primate’ cities gobbling large public and private investments, public spaces and becoming centers of property speculation causing pollution, stress and huge disparity between the other towns scattered at a distance and neglected.
This was a major cause of the tragedy of COVID exodus when millions of workers had to go back to their places of residence/ villages which were up to hundreds of miles away. The one major lesson worth learning has been surely to be able to reduce this walk. Which in other words means developing a network of self-sufficient smaller towns around these ,our mega cities.
Within the last decade, another significant development has been the introduction of the “smart city”. Many traditional and non traditional planning and governance techniques such as ease of doing business, E-governance, IT-enabled traffic and tax regulations, public participation etc. are being seriously perused to achieve the desired results of efficiency with varying degrees of success.
The twin experience of the COVID effect and the awareness brought about by the mission of the "smart city" has proved to us that with the clean air and relaxed pace of life, a lot of richness can be imparted in urban living just by slowing down. That there are tasks that can actually be performed from home and that given a chance IT can help reduce traffic and many other urban stresses and the realisation that walking in your city-under favourable circumstances is actually a good idea and a unique feeling.
Conventional (and what many may think now outdated) planning lexicon guides us to think in terms of a self-contained “ideal city” has made us forget that the city size beyond a point has an inverse relation to the quality of life of a residence. When cities become as large as Delhi and Mumbai they lose the human connection. People continue to live there because it becomes the best available compromise between the comfort space created by them and the sacrifices needed to hold on to it.
The equation between the “have nots and have yachts” –in the words of Niall Ferguson, is forever tilted in the favour of the rich. The urban poor just measure their achievement in respect to what they have left behind to be in the city.
Opportune Moment to Strengthen Existing Small Towns
The ‘Niti Aayog’ (former planning commission) ,in it’s paper outlining the urbanisation strategy has listed several initiatives such as optimising urban land use, revising the outdated Town and Country Planning rules, citizen involvement, capacity building for producing more planners etc.
None of these however are the ‘out of the box’ type of ideas needed to tackle the forthcoming problems. What we must guard against are the trends that have lead to some of our metros becoming primates at the cost of the smaller settlements. This is the most vital challenge steering us in the face.
Planners often fall in the trap of trying to replicate the small-town character in the big city by wishing to convert them to “15-minute cities” or making neighbourhoods people-friendly. They forget that the very strength of a mega city lies in its unbridled power to over whelm the resident with it’s overlapping functions and variety and present him with a vast array of opportunities and choices spread far and wide in space. What we do not understand or even attempt to understand is that cities have a threshold. Even the large megapolis. Once it reaches that threshold it acquires a life of it’s own with it’s benefits and stresses. You must be a party to sharing these stresses.
How often have you heard the phrase ..” if I could find a viable alternative I would go away…”
So herein lies the rub. Why not create viable alternatives and opportunities, especially in the smaller cities? A major reconditioning of the mindset is required here. We have witnessed the brilliant performance of children of humble backgrounds in several fields. This is indicative of the fact that given the proper opportunity, many more youngsters/citizens can accomplish their natural potential.
The creation of new towns is not a feasible exercise. But given that India is on the an economic ascendency and in a position to strengthen the existing small towns, this is the opportune moment. In the priority list of the government, there are dozens of items over and above this priority and as many reasons why it cannot be done but our small towns have been traditionally neglected for so long that the resulting emigration to the nearest metropolis has become an acceptable norm. It’s time to put a stop to this under the government's promise of “sab ka saath sab ka vikas”.
Smaller towns if adequately endowed, not only add value to life but also eliminate the desire (or shall we say the necessity) to turn them into ‘smart cities’ since 24x7 surveillance and conformity to rule and regulations are not the strong points of a large city in India. The metro city gives a resident the false sense of liberty that comes with anonymity. It gives credence to the famous German proverb ”…city air sets you free.” But this is time to follow what Dr Schumacher said over 100 years ago which is more valid today “… small is beautiful.”
(Professor Kavas Kapadia is the former Dean of Studies, Head of the Department of Urban Planning, School of Planning and Architecture, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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