Why did the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan perform as well as it did in the recent Bihar assembly elections? Analysts list a number of factors – BJP’s negative campaign, the RSS chief’s remarks on reservation, Nitish’s image as a vikash purush and better chemistry between Lalu Prasad and the JD(U) boss are just some of them.
One fact that has gone unnoticed though is the support Nitish got among women. The fact that the Mahagathbandhan got 9 per cent more votes among women than the rival alliance, according to a Centre for the Study of Developing Societies survey, was the clincher.
Women Power For Nitish
The overwhelming support Nitish got among women is not just because of the bicycle scheme for girls. The Bihar chief minister may not have realised the benefits his party and the state is likely to get because of one decision – to reserve 50 per cent of seats in panchayats for women.
Bihar was the first state to set aside half the seats for women in local bodies in 2006 and 14 others followed. That one decision, which appeared symbolic at that time, has led to changes the state never experienced before. And the same trend, of growing representation of women in panchayats, has brought about many changes in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh as well.
Changing Demographic Indices
Sample these facts. The rise in the mean age at marriage in Bihar and UP in the decade gone by was almost equal to the rise in previous four decades. The mean age at marriage in the two states now is almost at par with advanced states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Among the erstwhile laggard states (now rechristened as empowered action group states), delayed marriage has contributed the most to decline in fertility in UP. That decadal population growth fell by a whopping 6 percentage points in UP and 3.5 percentage points in Bihar between 2001 and 2011. The decline in growth rate happened for the first time since 1951.
This was the period when infant mortality rate (IMR) dropped sharply in these two states and the use of contraceptives went up. In the case of Bihar, the fall in IMR has been from 64 in 2000 to 43 in 2012, an improvement of nearly 33 per cent. During the same period, IMR fell from 84 to 53 in UP. Demographers argue that lower IMR leads to smaller families.
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Positive Social Transformation
- Over the last decade, both Bihar and UP has seen growing representation of women in panchayats
- Mean age at marriage in Bihar and UP almost at par with advanced states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu
- Delayed marriage has contributed the most to decline in fertility in UP
- The decline in growth rate in Bihar and UP has happened for the first time since 1951
- Infant mortality rate dropped sharply in the two states and the use of contraceptives went up
- Women’s empowerment must be the reason behind this perceptible change
The use of contraceptives and delayed marriage have been two of the most important contributors to moderation in population growth in the country. The fact that the two laggard states are catching up with the rest of the country on these counts suggests that something has changed in two of India’s most populous states. And changes are visible more in the countryside.
More Women in Panchayats
What has triggered this change? Women’s empowerment as reflected in their rising representation in panchayats must be the reason behind this perceptible change. UP elected 44 per cent women pradhans earlier this month which is 5 percentage points more than what was the case a decade ago.
Similarly, Bihar saw the proportion of women in elected positions in panchayats going up from almost nothing in 2001 to 55 per cent five years later. The proportion has stayed the same since then.
Even at the national level, more and more women were elected in local bodies over the last 15 years. From a low of 27 per cent in 2001, the proportion of women in panchayati raj institutions reached 37 per cent in 2007-08. The last available figure suggests it stands at 44 per cent now for the country as a whole.
More School-Going Girls
Many women in village panchayats in Bihar and UP have ensured that girls go to school. The exposure to the world means more awareness about their rights. It has resulted in age at marriage going up. The awareness about contraceptives has ensured that they can now unburden themselves from prolonged phases of child rearing.
Women, therefore, feel more comfortable with themselves with the kind of changes that have empowered them. There are miles to go still. But a beginning has been made. No wonder the man who took the first step in the long journey of women’s empowerment was richly rewarded with a record third term in Bihar.
(The writer is a regular contributor to the Business Standard)
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