Change was the buzzword as Haryana witnessed a string of dramatic events starting with the resignation of Chief Minister (CM) Manohar Lal Khattar and culminating with the swearing-in of Nayab Singh Saini as his replacement.
Why the change?
Simple: The feedback within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) through its in-house response system suggested that a change of guards before the Lok Sabha elections was necessary to beat the voter fatigue in Haryana after close to 10 years of Khattar’s rule.
On his part, the outgoing CM displayed real sportsmanship, smiling all through his exit rituals, because he already knew that he was in no way going to fade into oblivion. Instead, he already has another job waiting for him, as he was announced as a candidate for the Karnal Lok Sabha constituency just a day after his resignation.
Change in Leadership is a Familiar BJP Tactic
Devoid of any mass base, Khattar had already acquired the unique distinction of being the CM with the longest unbroken stint in the state, (though the aggregate years spread over chequered terms place Bansi Lal and Bhajan Lal ahead of him). All this dividend can be sourced to his proximity to Prime Minister Narendra Modi going back to the late 1990s when Khattar was the Organisational General Secretary of the BJP in Haryana.
A change in leadership is, by now, a familiar BJP tactic to beat anti-incumbency. Its results in the last years, however, have been mixed.
The tactic paid off in Gujarat, Tripura, and Uttarakhand. Two states, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, saw the sitting CM lead the party to victory. Two incumbents, Jai Ram Thakur (Himachal) and Raghubar Das (Jharkhand) were defeated, and in Karnataka, the replacement of B S Yeddyurappa backfired and the party suffered a disastrous defeat in the assembly polls.
The idea of a change in Haryana had been under consideration for some six months. The original choice for the party's central leadership had emerged through a series of meetings was Lok Sabha member from Karnal, Sanjay Bhatia, who like Khattar is a Punjabi. But the idea was dropped when it was realised that in public perception, it would mean very little change. Thereupon, Khattar put forth the name of Saini, the then-state BJP president.
The BJP Has Successfully Played the Non-Jat Card
Though it would be premature to judge him just yet, indications are that Saini may neither dismantle the present decision-making structure nor replace existing influential lobbies. If that is so, the change may prove to be just cosmetic.
And how would this move play out in the state's politics? The Jats, who are some 22 per cent of the state’s population, are the strongest electorate. Of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state, two — Ambala and Sirsa — are reserved for scheduled castes.
Four seats, i.e., Rohtak, Sonipat, Hisar and Bhiwani, are traditionally represented by the Jats. Gurgaon is an Ahir-dominated constituency. Kurukshetra, Karnal, and Faridabad are considered good constituencies for Saini, Brahmin, and Gujjar candidates, respectively.
In a political sphere where the Jats play a very crucial role, the BJP has played the non-Jat card quite well. Its task was made easier by the violent Jat agitation in 2016, who were protesting to secure OBC (Other Backward Classes) status. Attacks on non-Jat businesses, including loot and arson, followed by caste clashes, led to intense polarisation.
Presently, the BJP holds all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. The main rival of the BJP is the Congress party, led by former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Former deputy PM and Haryana CM Devi Lal and his son Om Prakash Chautala have been the most influential Jat leaders since 1977. However, Devi Lal’s demise and Chautala’s imprisonment in the JBT teachers’ recruitment case eroded the family’s mass base.
The ascendance of Hooda made members of the community turn to him, who undoubtedly has the maximum clout right now as far as the Jats are concerned. This equation suits both the BJP and the Hooda camp.
The Devi Lal clan is divided between two groups, led by Dushyant Chautala (grandson of Om Prakash Chautala) and his uncle Abhay Chautala (younger son of Om Prakash Chautala). Dushyant, whose Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) shared power with the BJP, has broken the alliance, making it inevitable for a split in the Jat vote. The larger section is with Hooda.
The hardcore non-Jat voting bloc includes Dalits (21 per cent), and Brahmins, Punjabis and Banias (totalling over 20 per cent). Sources disclosed that the BJP may redeploy the outgoing Sirsa Lok Sabha MP Sunita Duggal to placate the Dalit community. She may be inducted into the Saini ministry as a deputy CM. The sources added that the party would also work out some arrangements to appease the Brahmin community.
On the other hand, the Sainis, accounting for some eight per cent of the votes, are a mild-mannered community, acceptable to all. They have a sizeable presence in Ambala, Kurukshetra, Hisar, and Rewari districts. Broadly speaking, the Sainis are a big community in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Obviously, they would be enthused to vote in larger numbers for the BJP.
One senior Punjabi leader, former Home Minister Anil Vij, who tends to go into a sulk much too often, has this time around bitten off more than what he can chew by walking out of a BJP legislature meeting on Tuesday and skipping Saini's oath ceremony. His protest has not gone down well with those who matter to the state. Sources indicated that he may be denied a ticket for the next elections.
The saffron party has a clear goal, i.e., the retention of all 10 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming general elections. Six months later, the assembly polls would take place. The Modi factor may work in the Lok Sabha elections, but the real challenge would be winning the state assembly.
(The author is a senior journalist. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the authors' own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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