It’s a catch-22 situation for Congress in Uttar Pradesh. It is in no position to contest alone. But, it doesn’t know whom to talk to. Its media strategist Prashant Kishore’s recent meeting with Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has fuelled speculation.
The BSP has already ruled out alliance with any party in the run up to Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls due in February-March next year. An alliance with the BJP is out of question. That leaves Congress with only the Samajwadi Party to negotiate with for an electoral alliance.
But in view of the deep fissures within the Samajwadi Party, Congress leaders are unsure whom they should deal with – Mulayam Singh Yadav or his son Akhilesh.
The Dream of a Non-BJP, Non-BSP UP
A senior Congress leader from Uttar Pradesh confirmed that the Congress wanted an alliance with SP because “if we contest alone we will be completely wiped out. With Akhilesh on our side, we hope to forge a formidable alliance. This could make the contest triangular”.
SP on the other hand has envisioned a grand alliance of non-BJP, non-BSP parties in Uttar Pradesh. Something like the one cobbled by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav in Bihar. Defying odds, the Grand Alliance in Bihar thwarted a concerted effort by the BJP to grab power.
Initially, Mulayam was not in favour of such an alliance. He felt the SP government in the state has performed much better than people’s expectations and would sail through on its own.
That was the reason why he, two months ago, rejected Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) president Ajit Singh’s overtures for an alliance. All Ajit had demanded was a Rajya Sabha seat for himself and about 50 assembly seats.
Mulayam had also spurned offers from JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar and RJD’s Lalu Yadav, saying they hardly had any presence in UP.
That’s why an alliance with these parties would be a futile exercise for the SP – these parties without a mass base would contest precious assembly seats and lose, which the SP would otherwise contest and might win.
But internecine fights within his family and the party seem to have affected Mulayam’s line of thinking.
With Akhilesh having kick-started his election campaign on his own and with help of the very people thrown out of the party by his uncle Shivpal Yadav, the state party president, Mulayam, has become jittery. “How can an old king with older soldiers and rusted weapons go alone to contest formidable foes having much superior weaponry and young soldiers full of vigour?”, asked a Samajwadi Party veteran.
Akhilesh to Remain Face of the Party
Mulayam was also jittery with the prospect of Akhilesh leaving the party and contesting the elections in alliance with JD(U), RJD, RLD and, of course, Congress.
AICC in charge of UP Ghulam Nabi Azad was in direct touch with Akhilesh, but they were unable to take firm steps in view of the fluid situation within the SP. They didn’t know whether Akhilesh would stay put in the party, or chart his course out of it. This was something that even Akhilesh wasn’t sure about.
Things seemed to have crystallised during Diwali vacations.
Sources close to Akhilesh confirm that the chief minister is no mood to leave the party. “It takes decades, not years, for a party to stand on a firm footing. Akhilesh doesn’t have enough time to form a party and contest elections. In any case, why should he leave the party just because of couple of rogue elements? It is his party. He has been with it since he entered politics. His government has tons of achievements to show”, said a confidante of the chief minister.
That’s why without mulling any further, the young chief minister rode his auto-rath yesterday to meet as many people as possible and tom-tom his achievements.
His strategy is simple.
He will showcase his government’s achievements and campaign for himself. People will consider him to be the sole leader of the party since both Shivpal and Mulayam have lost both their connection with the people and their charisma.
Akhilesh might remain the face of the Samajwadi Part but ultimately, Mulayam and Shivpal remain the brains who will distribute tickets. The duo also considered forging alliance officially with parties to whom Akhilesh was unofficially talking to. That was the reason why Shivpal went to Ajit, Lalu and Nitish for an offer of Mahagathbandhan of all socialist (ex-Janata Dal) parties.
That prompted the Congress too to open a direct channel with SP through Prashant Kishore, who approached SP general secretary Amar Singh to arrange a meeting with Mulayam Singh. Basically, Congress doesn’t want to jump the gun. If Akhilesh has to remain in the party, why not talk to the party supremo directly.
Will a Grand Alliance Materialise?
Despite all talks and claims, a grand alliance (like the one in Bihar) doesn’t seem likely. First, JD(U) and RJD actually don’t have much following in UP.
Secondly, both Nitish and Lalu don’t consider Mulayam a reliable ally. He ditched them in United Front, then again during the presidential election, in which Mulayam ditched his socialist friends to side with the BJP’s nominee APJ Abdul Kalam.
He betrayed Mamata Banerjee during Pranab Mukherjee’s Presidential election. His latest victim was Nitish Kumar as Mulayam walked out of the grand alliance at the last moment, despite Shivpal Yadav attending the first rally of the alliance partners.
That had fuelled reports of alliance even before the elections kicking off in earnest.
It will then be a Congress-SP alliance – if the deal is clinched – aimed at polarising minority votes away from the BSP.
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