Gujarat might also go to polls along with UP, Punjab and Goa in March next year. The ruling BJP in Gujarat has already sounded out its legislators to be ready for assembly elections, more than six months ahead of the scheduled time.
There are clear reasons for the BJP to advance the elections. It is faced with twin disadvantages: The Patidar Anamat Arakshan (Patidar Reservation Movement) and the state-wide Dalit unrest after public beating of four Dalits by BJP-backed cow vigilante groups in Una.
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A State in Decline
The party was already in decline ever since Narendra Modi moved to New Delhi in May 2014. His replacement as CM, Anandiben Patel, didn't prove to be as effective as Modi. Both the Patidar movement and Dalit unrest spread like wildfire during her tenure.
She faced allegations of out-of-way allotment of land to her daughter Anar at throwaway prices. Even her successor, Vijay Rupani, is courting controversies every other day, the latest being his photograph being felicitated by a notorious Daman bootlegger, Rajesh Michael, at the CM’s residence last week. In Mahatma Gandhi's home state, which has been declared alcohol-free, the act amounts to sacrilege.
The state's economy is in a slump. Surat’s diamond business has gone down by almost 20-25 percent during the past six months.
We are just being able to run our house. The profits have dwindled to near zero.Jaisukhbhai, a diamond merchant
A similar decline is being witnessed in the textile sector. “Manufacturing has gone down by almost 40-45 per cent, due to unabated import of Chinese yarn and textiles. Our repeated plea to Union Textile Minister Smriti Irani has fallen on deaf ears,” says Ashok Jeerawala, president of the Surat Textile Manufacturers Association.
The party can't wait for another year and let the situation deteriorate further under its watch. Hence, the rethink for flash polls.
BJP leaders too confirmed the move.
The party leadership wanted our opinion on whether elections can be held in March alongside Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. We said we are ready even if you want to hold it tomorrow.Prafullbhai Panseria, BJP MLA from Kamrej in Surat
Is AAP Making BJP Nervous?
The Aam Aadmi Party’s entry in Gujarat has compounded the BJP’s problems. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's three-day sojourn in Gujarat has shaken the BJP out of its stupor.
The BJP was confident of tackling the moribund Congress which has been out of power in Gujarat for more than 20 years now. But AAP has new vigour and the way the youth, Patidars, Dalits, backward communities and minorities are getting drawn to the party has made the BJP sit back and think.
Kejriwal’s massive Surat rally has sent shivers down the spine of both the Congress and the BJP. BJP supporters had splashed the entire town with banners and hoardings comparing Kejriwal to “pro-Pakistan terrorists” like Osama bin Laden, Hafiz Saeed and Burhan Wani. This was in response to his demand to “shut Pakistan’s mouth by giving it evidence of surgical strike.”
AAP’s Gujarat convener Gulab Singh was arrested by the Delhi Police in Surat, in an old case, just six hours before the rally.
The rally was organised at Yogi Chowk in Varachcha considered to be the Patidars’ stronghold. They did not allow even BJP President Amit Shah to address a rally at the same venue.
Shah held it some distance away in Abrahma area, within the closed campus of a school. All 44 Patidar MLAs of the party were there along with Rupani, former CM Anandiben, state BJP chief Jitu Vaghani and Union minister Mansukhani Mandavia. Yet Patidars created so much ruckus at the venue that Shah had to conclude his speech in just four minutes.
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Congress in Wait-And-Watch Mode
To add to the BJP’s woes, the Patidars, including their leader Hardik Patel, have thrown their weight behind Kejriwal. The wily Delhi CM on Sunday openly courted Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and emerging OBC leader Alpesh Thakore. He also visited the kin of Dalits and Patidars killed during their respective agitations.
The Congress, on the other hand, has refused to stir into action so far. It is waiting for the March elections to be over before starting their election campaign in Gujarat. But local Congress leaders are feeling the ground slipping from under their feet.
“Dalits, tribals and minorities are traditionally our vote bank. If we don’t do anything soon, it is going to shift to AAP which already has the backing of the powerful and rich Patidar lobby,” says Dinesh Patel, one of the 15 Congress corporators in Surat .
The Congress did not have a single member in previous corporation. If it managed to win 15 in the election held earlier this year, it was thanks to the Patidar agitation.
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Politics Behind Preponing Polls
The AAP has its own take on the possibility of elections being advanced in Gujarat.
They fear that once Kejriwal wins Punjab and Goa, AAP will gain tremendous momentum. Then it will be difficult for the BJP to stop us in Gujarat as well. Hence the panic to hold early elections.Sanjay Singh, AAP leader
The BJP, however, doesn't acknowledge that the polls will be advanced due to Kejriwal or Patidars. “We wish to fulfil Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of one nation, one election. It will be fitting if his home state Gujarat becomes the first state to implement his idea. In any case, we will have Panchayat elections in February-March. No one will mind if we have simultaneous elections to state Assembly as well,” said Janak M Patel, BJP legislator from Karanj in Surat.
(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist. He can be reached at @sharadgupta1.)
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