Brexit: US-Britain ‘Special Relationship’ Is Now Under Threat
The loss of the strongest pro-US voice within the EU can weaken Washington’s influence in European policy making.
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union could send damaging shock waves through the bedrock Anglo-American “special relationship,” raising questions about London’s willingness and ability to back US-led efforts in global crises ranging from West Asia to Ukraine.
According to analysts and former diplomats, the loss of the strongest pro-U.S. voice within the 28-nation bloc as a result of the “Brexit” referendum threatens to weaken Washington’s influence in European policymaking and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to further challenge the West.
Big Decisions for Next US President
The British referendum on Thursday, widely seen as reflecting a more nationalistic and inward-looking public, also risks the splintering of the United Kingdom itself, which could further reduce its role and stature in world affairs.
Britain’s exit — which is not immediate and must be negotiated with the EU — could present the next US President with a decision on whether to turn to other key European partners like Germany and France, essentially downgrading America’s special bond with London, the foundation of which was laid in World War Two.
Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO and the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, said Britain’s ability to press its views and policy preferences with its European allies and within NATO, where it provided strong political backing to the United States, will be diminished.
You clearly have a much weaker Britain whose sway in European capitals is lessened by the vote.Ivo Daalder
As a result, he said, the United States likely will have to work harder to maintain trans-Atlantic and European unity. Anything that divides Europe, he added, “is a win for Russia because that has been a policy of Putin and of Russia.”
This is certain to encourage the Russians to continue and probably intensify their campaign of supporting far-right nationalist movements in Western and Eastern Europe as part of their effort to neuter NATO.A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Phil Gordon, a former senior foreign policy adviser to Obama, expressed concern that Europe will become inwardly focused after Britain’s departure and independence movements on the continent, leaving the United States to shoulder more of the international burden.
The more time it spends on doing that, the more resources it spends on coping with the consequences of that, the less time, money and political capital it is going to have to help us with global challenges.Phill Gordon
Rebuke to Obama
While Obama insisted on Friday that Britain would remain an “indispensable partner,” the outcome of the referendum delivered a clear rebuke to the US president, who made an unusually strong intervention into British politics against “Brexit” during a visit to London in April.
Prime Minister David Cameron — who announced his plans to step down following the referendum result — has cooperated closely with Obama in the security sphere.
Britain has been a major military player in US-led campaigns against Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq, an active ally on the ground in Afghanistan and a strong supporter of sanctions against Russia over its role in Ukraine’s separatist conflict.
A Weak Britain?
Heather Conley, the director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Britain’s divorce from the EU, which could take up to two years, would now be “an all-consuming process” that could distract it from such efforts.
There’s just not going to be an enormous amount of attention of policy bandwidth given to the migration crisis, fighting ISIS, or focusing on continued ceasefire violations in Ukraine and maintaining sanctions against Russia. It comes down to when we need the UK and its leadership, whether in the Security Council or NATO, its attentions will be focused domestically.Heather Conley
While US-British intelligence sharing — one of the closest relationships of its kind in the world — is expected to withstand the political turmoil, some experts said counter-terrorism cooperation with European partners could suffer at time when Islamic State has targeted European capitals.
It will make cooperation in Europe on counter-terrorism harder as most of the former British intelligence chiefs predicted before the vote.Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official now at the Brookings Institution think-tank in Washington.
Will Scotland Exit Too?
But Michael Morell, a former acting CIA director, rejected that view, saying counter-terrorism cooperation “is too important to let politics of any kind affect it.”
Adding to U.S. concerns is the threat by Scottish nationalists to mount a new referendum on independence for Scotland, where nearly two-thirds of voters voted to stay in the EU.
The break-up of the United Kingdom would raise questions whether it should retain its veto in the United Nations Security Council, where it has been a mostly reliable supporter of US initiatives.
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