5 Formulas To Secure an Alliance Between BJP and Shiv Sena

Video Editor: Mohd Irshad Alam and Vivek Gupta

The million dollar question at the moment is, will Shiv Sena enter in an alliance with the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But neither the BJP, nor the Shiv Sena are able to provide a satisfactory answer to this question. On the one hand, BJP is confident that the Shiv Sena will be their ally in the 2019 polls. On the other hand, Shiv Sena has sent signals that they might be looking to fight a lone battle.

Now, the mainstream news outlets are suggesting various formulas for a possible BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. But most of these formulas have been attributed by these outlets to anonymous sources.

Now, we don’t know when and how will a BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will be forged or whether an alliance is even on the card. But for now, we can at least glance over these possible formulas.

Formula 1

Shiv Sena wants that the BJP dissolve the current Assembly and conduct the Maharashtra Assembly polls and Lok Sabha polls simultaneously in 2019. Shiv Sena would also want to contest in 155 seats out of 288 seats in the Assembly. Only then will they form a coalition with the BJP.

Formula 2

Anonymous sources from within Shiv Sena have been quoted suggesting a 50-50 seat share formula. In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, both Shiv Sena and BJP will field candidates in 144 seats each but the chief ministerial post will be awarded to Shiv Sena.

Formula 3

Sources from the BJP are saying that the BJP is ready for the 50-50 seat sharing but they aren’t ready to compromise on the post of the chief minister.

Formula 4

Shiv Sena will contest on 151 seats and the BJP will contest on 137 seats and whichever party wins more seats will be awarded the chief ministerial post.

Formula 5

Both BJP and Shiv Sena will contest on 144 seats each and after the election, BJP chief ministerial candidate will run the state for two-and-half years and Shiv Sena candidate will run the state for remaining two-and-half years.

Now which of the 5 formulas will be picked by the two parties will be clarified in the coming days. But judging by the differences that the two parties are showing in the run up to the 2019 elections, if the coalition isn’t formed in time, it might be too little and too late.

Fracture in Coalition to Cost Both Parties

Both BJP and Shiv Sena know that if they are unable to forge a coalition then a split in the vote bank is guaranteed. The benefit of this split will be received by the NCP-Congress alliance. So in order to ensure that votes aren’t split, BJP will try to secure an alliance with Shiv Sena at all cost.

Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance 42 of these seats. Hence, if an alliance isn’t forged than it might cost the BJP massively in a crucial state like Maharashtra. On the other hand, it’s also true that Shiv Sena will be unable to replicate its 2014 performance without the BJP.

Alliance On Basis of Hindutva?

Shiv Sena maybe at odds with the BJP at the moment but if the BJP raises the issue of Hindutva ahead of the election and introduces an ordinance for ‘Ram Mandir’ then Shiv Sena – who had raised the slogan “temple before government” – will be forced to support the BJP.

(The page was originally published in Quint Hindi)