Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy on Friday, 2 February, kickstarted the Congress' Parliamentary election campaign from Adilabad's Indervelli village.
Despite the headstart – and its surprising comeback in the Assembly elections held in December 2023 – a lot appears to be at stake for the party:
The Congress won 64 seats in the Assembly polls, pushing the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (led by K Chandrasekhar Rao) to second place with 39 seats. The government is, however, running on a thin majority and is not immune to instability.
There is a need – now more than ever – for the Congress to up its tally in Parliament, considering the steady rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not only in the northern states but in Telangana as well, where it won eight Assembly seats.
The instability within the Opposition INDIA bloc after Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's exit is posing a perception challenge to the Congress, even in Telangana.
The Parliamentary elections will also prove to be a litmus test for the BRS. With electoral contests across the country taking a bipolar route between the BJP and the Congress-led Opposition, a regional party like the BRS would need a major win to keep itself afloat, especially amid speculations that the Congress is 'engineering defections' in its fold.
So, who has the edge? Will the Congress be able to repeat its Assembly poll performance? Will the BRS make a comeback? And where does the BJP stand?
Unpacking the Speculations
On 23 January, four BRS MLAs from the erstwhile Medak district – Sunita Lakshma Reddy (Narsapur), K Prabhakar Reddy (Dubbaka), G Mahipal Reddy (Patancheru), and Manik Rao (Zaheerabad) – met CM Revanth Reddy for a "courtesy visit."
This has set off a speculation that the Congress is "in talks" with BRS MLAs, in a bid to get them to join the party's ranks. This assumes significance as the Medak region is considered a BRS bastion.
More recently, on 28 January, the BRS MLA from Rajendranagar Prakash Goud visited Revanth Reddy – and he was draped with a kanduva (shawl) that bore the Congress' colours. He was also photographed wearing the kanduva.
The BRS MLAs, meanwhile, clarified that they met the CM for funds and issues related to their respective constituencies. Speaking to The Quint, a senior BRS leader said on the condition of anonymity:
"All MLAs are dutybound to ensure the welfare of the people they represent. And for that, they would have to meet ministers and government officials. The Congress is merely trying to confuse people with certain actions, like draping a Congress kanduva over a BRS leader."
Senior journalist and political analyst R Pridhvi Raj told The Quint that while meetings like this help create an "impression that BRS MLAs are looking to join the Congress," practically speaking, "the anti-defection law would prevent them from doing so."
As per the law, if two-thirds of MLAs of a party join another party, it would be considered a merger. In other words, at least 26 BRS MLAs (out of 39) would have to defect to the Congress en masse for it to be a legitimate merger.
So, what do these meetings signify?
Political experts suggest it may have more to do with the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections scheduled to be held on 27 February. Telangana has three vacant Rajya Sabha seats, all of which were occupied by the BRS.
"Now that the composition of the Assembly has changed, the Congress can win two seats and the BRS can win one. But if the Congress has the support of enough BRS MLAs, then the party can even field a third candidate. There could be cross-voting as it is a secret ballot," explains Pridhvi Raj.
Secondly, he added: "Since the Congress only has 64 seats in the Assembly, even if just a few MLAs go join the BRS, the government could fall. Revanth Reddy would want to protect it at all costs – and therefore, he could be trying to gain the support of the Opposition MLAs."
When BRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao became the Chief Minister in 2014, he only had 63 MLAs. Soon after the win, several Congress and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) MLAs joined the BRS (then Telangana Rashtra Samithi), ensuring stability to the government.
In 2019, too, the BRS is learnt to have engineered defections, as 12 out of the 19 Congress MLAs joined the party – even though it had massive majority. In fact, one of the four BRS MLAs who met Revanth Reddy last week was a former Congress MLA – Sunitha Laxma Reddy.
Speaking to The Quint, senior journalist Roshan Ali opined: "In the event of a mass defection from the BRS, what the Congress would do is create a narrative that it is a 'ghar waapsi' of its leaders who were 'stolen' by the BRS. That will be their defence as far as perceptions are concerned."
He added that "even if they don't get 26 MLAs to defect, they can get them to unofficially support the Congress if a no-confidence motion ever arises."
Shifting Narratives
In a meeting on 30 January, the Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) left the decision of choosing its candidates for the upcoming Parliamentary elections to Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge.
It was also proposed in the meeting that if AICC leader Sonia Gandhi ever chose to contest from Telangana for Rajya Sabha, the party would make it a unanimous win. It must be noted that in the run-up to the Assembly polls, the Congress had argued that it should be Sonia Gandhi who must be credited for the formation of the Telangana state, and not the BRS.
"The Congress has been trying to ensure that KCR or the BRS has no right over the Telangana movement or the Telangana sentiment. This is evident in two ways," explained Pridhvi Raj.
"One, the party recently gave the post of MLC to Prof Kodandaram [Telangana Jana Samithi founder], who was a household name during the Telangana movement. He is known all over the state as the champion of the movement. There are rumours that he might even get a Cabinet position," he added.
By propping up Kodandaram and the speculation over Sonia Gandhi's candidature, the Congress wants to capitalise on the Telangana sentiment, he further said.
The BJP Factor
Revanth Reddy's decision to launch his campaign from Indervelli, where a group of Adivasis were shot at by the police in 1981 amid a land rights agitation, is politically significant, as Adilabad is one of the erstwhile districts where the BJP has a strong presence.
The Congress was in power when the firing took place. Speaking about the incident on Friday, the CM said: "Apologies for the past blunders have already been tendered. Sonia Gandhi has granted Statehood to Telangana with a view to undo the historical mistakes committed during the regime of Seemandhra rulers in the united Andhra Pradesh."
"With the strife within the INDIA bloc and the Ayodhya mania engulfing the entire country, the BJP may pull off another victory at the Centre. But because the Congress is the ruling party in Telangana, it will have some rub-off effect in the elections here," Pridhvi Raj opines.
The party said that it is confident of winning 12 of 17 Lok Sabha seats, upping its previous tally of three.
"The Congress is eyeing between 8-12 seats, especially in south and mid-Telangana. They include Khammam, Nalgonda, Warangal, and Mahabubnagar, where their MLAs had won with a good margin. Except for Medak, where the BRS is very strong, the party may not have many challenges in these regions."Roshan Ali
He added that the "situation is also very conducive for the BJP as they made significant gains in the Assembly polls. The BJP has a good presence in Adilabad, Nizamabad, Secunderabad, and Zaheerabad."
In other words, experts opined that the Lok Sabha polls may trigger a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP – meaning, the BRS, which currently holds nine Parliamentary seats, may lose out.
"The Congress wants to end the BRS in Telangana. The BJP also wants to finish off the BRS and become the main Opposition party," Roshan Ali opined.
"One must note that in the 2018 Assembly polls, the BJP lost its deposits in 118 seats. But just five months later, in 2019, it won 4 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress, too, which won 19 Assembly seats in 2018, won 3 LS seats in 2019. It goes to show that the Lok Sabha polls are a different ballgame," he said.
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