After over a year of delays, postponements, and intervention by the Supreme Court, Maharashtra Speaker Rahul Narwekar will decide on the disqualification of the MLAs of Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde's party) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) on Wednesday, 10 January.
Narwekar will give his verdict on 34 disqualification petitions that the two sides had filed against each other's MLAs when the Shiv Sena split in June 2022.
The verdict will decide the fate of 40 MLAs of the Shiv Sena, including Shinde, and 14 MLAs of Shiv Sena (UBT).
Why the verdict is politically significant?: With both Thackeray and Shinde looking to score political points from the verdict, the disqualification of MLAs from either sides will steer the tides for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (Opposition alliance) and the Mahayuti (ruling alliance).
Experts cite three possibilities:
If Shiv Sena (UBT) MLAs get disqualified, it will further weaken Thackeray's party and the MVA. However, it will strengthen the MVAs claims that the Bharatiya Janata Paty (BJP) has been engineering ways to target the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Thackeray all along.
The disqualification of Shiv Sena MLAs may mean the ouster of Sinde as the CM and will only help strengthen the MVA's claims that the Shinde-BJP government was always formed illegally. The government, however, will not fall as the BJP and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) still have the numbers together.
The status quo would remain if MLAs from neither side are disqualified.
The verdict comes after the Supreme Court in May 2023 ordered Narwekar to decide on the petitions at the earliest.
What both sides said ahead of the verdict: Ahead of the verdict, both sides have been engaged in a war of words.
Addressing the media, Narwekar said: "This decision will be in accordance with the law. The directions given by the Supreme Court in compliance with the provisions of the Constitution. This result will be based on that. This verdict will bring justice to all. The unprecedented understanding of the 10th Schedule of the Constitution will be through this judgment."
CM Shinde said that the verdict should be given by Narwekar on the basis of merit.
"All I can say is that Shiv Sena has officially been recognised as a party by the Election Commission. The symbol of the bow and arrow is given to us. We have 67 percent majority in Legislative Assembly," he said.
"The Supreme Court in its judgment judgment said that the government ceased to exist after former Chief Minister (Uddhav Thackeray) had resigned. Also we had a majority of 164 people. 164 MLAs have supported me as the Chief Minister. So, our government is not unconstitutional," Shinde added.
Meanwhile, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut on Wednesday targeted Narwekar, saying that the verdict was decided in Delhi.
"You know that the verdict may come today, and according to the Constitution, the verdict may disqualify the government. In such a time, PM Modi coming to the state only indicates that he knows what the verdict will be," Raut said.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)