Prestige Pune: 4 Key Aspects in Congress vs NCP Battle Over Awaited LS Bypolls

While the NCP staked claim on Pune Lok Sabha, it may not be willing to give the seat Congress is asking in return.

"Let's see what is right for all. The Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), all three will find a way out of this together. There is no reason to worry. Demands and claims are made by all parties. But in the end, it remains to be seen who can effectively fight and win," said NCP chief Sharad Pawar in Pune on 28 May when quizzed about the party's ongoing tug of war with the Congress for the Pune Lok Sabha seat.

As the friction between the three allies of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) keeps getting rougher with the ongoing inter-party and intra-party discussions over seat sharing, the Pune Lok Sabha constituency is awaiting bypolls following the death of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MP Girish Bapat.

Sharad Pawar's statement came a day after sparks flew within the MVA over after his nephew and NCP leader Ajit Pawar staked claim on Pune saying that the NCP should contest the seat since it is the strongest party in the region and enjoys electoral dominance. Two weeks since, the deadlock over the seat continues.

Traditionally, the Congress has been contesting the seat even when it was in alliance with the NCP before the MVA was formed and has been won thrice with Suresh Kalmadi as its representative. Following Kalmadi's exit from active politics, the Congress has lost the seat to the BJP twice in 2014 and 2019.

But with the NCP's demand for Pune, the Congress has demanded an equally important seat in return, making it one of the toughest potential bargains of the MVA's seat sharing talks.

There are four key aspects in the battle for Pune:

Fielding Prithviraj Chavan and the Possible Challenges

Former Maharashtra chief minister and senior Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan's name has been doing the rounds to contest the Pune seat if bypolls are held. Several party leaders close to Chavan have favoured his candidature, considering the party not having a leader of Kalmadi's stature since 2014, sources said.

While Chavan himself has not confirmed or denied the discussions within the party on his name, fielding him might give the party an an upper hand considering the NCP does not have a face in Pune either despite electoral dominance, according to observers.

However, even as Chavan has been digging his heels in Pune in order to get the scattered and demoralised flock of the party together by holding several organisational meetings and media briefings, there are two key challenges with fielding Chavan:

• Chavan's relationship with the Congress central leadership and the Gandhi family is said to be strained since he was a party of the now defunct 'G-23' group of leaders within that had advocated for a 'stronger leadership' back in 2021.

• The Pawars are reported to have a strained relationship with Chavan, with Sharad Pawar himself often having criticised him publicly. Ajit Pawar's first two stints as the deputy chief minister of Maharashtra were with Chavan as the CM between 2010-2014, during which frictions were reported several times.

The Strength of the NCP and the Congress in Pune

In terms of the strength in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), the Lok Sabha, and in the Assembly, the NCP has the highest number of seats amongst all three MVA allies in the district. Here's a quick look at the figures and what they indicate:

Lok Sabha Seats in Pune District:

The figures: The four Lok Sabha seats in Pune district are held as follows:

• Pune: Girish Bapat, BJP (seat vacant after his demise)

• Baramati: Supriya Sule, NCP

• Shirur: Dr Amol Kolhe, NCP

• Maval: Shrirang Barane, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction)

The catch: The Congress does not have any Lok Sabha seat in Pune district, while the NCP has two.

Assembly Seats Under Pune Lok Sabha:

The figures: Out of the six Assembly seats in Pune Lok Sabha, the Congress and the NCP hold one each, while four are with the BJP:

• Kasba Peth: Congress

• Vadgaon Sheri: NCP

• Parvati: BJP

• Pune Cantonment: BJP

• Kothrud: BJP

• Shivajinagar: BJP

The catch: While the Kasba Peth seat was wrestled by the Congress from the BJP in the bypolls held in March 2023, the is also at the second spot after the BJP in the Pune Cantonment and Shivajinagar Assembly seats, indicating significant clout in the region, even if not at par with the NCP.

Pune Municipal Corporation:

The figures: Out of the 162 seats of the PMC, the NCP has 42 corporators while the Congress has 10.

The catch: The NCP is said to be stronger in Khadakwasla and Hadapsar, with 29 of its 42 corporators hailing from these two Assembly constituencies. Both constituencies are, however, outside the Pune Lok Sabha. Meanwhile, all 10 corporators of the Congress are from within the Pune Lok Sabha.

Senior political analyst said Hemant Desai said that the efforts by the NCP are politically beneficial for the party to further strengthen its base in its "capital Pune."

"The NCP has dominance in the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad civic bodies, has one Rajya Sabha seat, and two Lok Sabha seats in the region. The Pune district is the bastion of the NCP, so it clearly wants to establish complete dominance in the region by trying to grab 3/4 Lok Sabha seats of the district," Desai said.

The NCP Might Not Give the Seat Congress is Asking in Return

A Maharashtra Congress leader, on the condition on anonymity said: "If the NCP is openly staking claim on Pune, it has to give something else in return. I am sure this will be taken into consideration in the talks with senior leaders. There is no way Sharad Pawar saheb would want the NCP to contest all four seats in the region. That understanding goes unsaid within the MVA."

Amid friction over Pune, the Maharashtra Congress has staked claim on the Maval Lok Sabha seat which Ajit Pawar's son Parth Pawar lost to the united Shiv Sena's Shrirang Barne in 2019. Barne is now with the Shinde camp.

While the Shiv Sena (UBT) have in the past expressed its wish to contest all seats it won in 2019, including those with the Shinde faction now, it does not have a very strong name to pitch in Maval so far. While the NCP is looking to make Parth Pawar succeed this time by riding on the MVA's popularity and the general sympathy for Uddhav, Pimpri-Chinchwad Congress chief Kailas Kadam feels otherwise.

While addressing a gathering in Pimpri-Chinchwad on Friday, 9 June, Kadam said that "The NCP has lost the seat thrice to the Shiv Sena since 2009. The Congress is strong here. It must not be forgotten that even Parth Pawar faced defeat in 2019," he said.

A delegation led by Kadam also met Patole last week to demand that the party contests Maval, otherwise its "existence in the district will be under threat."

Considering the NCP's plans for Parth Pawar, Maval will be a tough bargain, experts say.

If Not Prithviraj Chavan, Then Who?

The Pune Lok Sabha has been a Congress stronghold with the party having represented it 10/18 times since 1951.

The fortunes of the party dwindled in Pune since 2014, but its recent victory in Kasba Peth bypolls has breathed fresh hope in the local cadre, sources say. While the Congress' Vishwajeet Kadam lost by a margin of over 3 lakh votes in 2014, veteran leader Mohan Joshi too lost against the BJP's Bapat in 2019.

Several leaders, including Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole, CLP leader Balasaheb Thorat, state Congress spokesperson Atul Londhe, veteran leader Mohan Joshi and, and city Congress general secretary Ramesh Iyer have publicly expressed their views on the matter and said that the Pune seat should be contested by the Congress.

While NCP's Pune city chief Prashant Jagtap and Vadgaon Sheri MLA Sunil Tingre are being touted as frontrunners, many cast doubts on their capacity to take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha, given the saffron party's increased efforts in the district after being left red-faced in the Brahmin-majority Kasba Peth assembly bypolls.

"If Ajit Pawar's formula of 'contesting seats that assure winnability' is considered, the party has undisputed grasp in Pune among all three MVA allies. Several leaders like Prashant Jagtap, Ankush Kakde, and Rupali Chakankar are extremely active. Most leaders who are now with the BJP were formerly with the NCP," Desai said.

"Even if the Congress is claiming upper hand after the Kasba Peth victory, it was Dhangekar's own voter base that assured his victory in the seat, which is not necessarily the Congress' voter base. The MVA called BJP leader Chandrakant Patil an outsider in Pune when he contested from Kothrud Assembly seat in 2019. But similar comments will be made about Chavan if he is pitched," he added.