In Assembly Polls, the Incumbent, the Challenger and the ‘Woh’

The outcome of elections in three states hinges on the significant ‘other’ among parties, writes Mayank Mishra.

• In Tamil Nadu, DMDK’s Vijayakanth is the CM candidate for the People’s Welfare Front (PWF)
  
• In Assam, Congress & BJP are courting Badruddin Ajmal of AIUDF, he is considered a ‘significant other’
  
• In West Bengal, BJP’s performance could impact the TMC and the Left’s vote share
  
• Gowing clout of woh says something about people’s perception of the incumbent and the challenger
  

In his debut elections in 2006, his party – the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) – polled more than 7 percent of the votes. Five years later in 2011, by winning 29 seats, the DMDK emerged as the second-largest party in the Tamil Nadu assembly. Now, Vijayakanth is the chief ministerial candidate of the People’s Welfare Front (PWF) that consists of his DMDK and five other parties. Vijayakanth is the most important woh (the ‘other’) factor in the Tamil Nadu elections.

In Assam, he is widely considered the kingmaker. Even before election results are out, both the principal claimants to power – the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – have reportedly started courting Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). Fearing poaching by rivals, Ajmal is planning to fly out all 71 candidates abroad. Ajmal is the significant ‘other’ in Assam’s politics.

The ‘Woh’ Factor

In all the four poll-bound states, the woh factor will have a significant bearing on which party or alliance will finally form government. While in some states the ‘other’ will decisively impact the eventual outcome, in some others they may have significant roles to play post-elections.

West Bengal, for instance, is where the ‘other’ will have an important role to play in which way the electoral fortune swings. The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) and its allies did exceedingly well in urban and semi-urban constituencies in 2011. The domination was so complete that the TMC-led alliance won all 52 urban seats with a vote share of 57 percent! In semi-urban seats, the Mamata-led alliance won 39 of 45 such seats, wiping out the Left from urban centres.

Will Mamata deliver an encore in urban seats? Things have changed since 2011. The Congress, which a TMC ally in the last assembly polls, has backed the challenger. The ‘other’, the BJP in this case, did exceedingly well in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, grabbing a vote share of close to 17 percent – a huge jump from the 2011 assembly poll.

According to reliable estimates, the BJP gained its vote share at the expense of the TMC in Kolkata, and at the expense of Left parties in other parts of the state. If the BJP retains its 2014 vote share in urban centres this time too, it may have an adverse impact on the TMC’s fortunes. If there is erosion in the BJP’s vote share from the levels of 2014 Lok Sabha elections, who will it go to this time? The beneficiary of such an erosion, widely expected in political circles, will have an advantage in the electoral battle.

In Assam, the AIUDF is widely expected to play a role in excess of the number of seats it will get or the vote share it is expected to garner. Ever since its debut in the state’s electoral politics, the AIUDF has become the preferred choice for Bangla-speaking Muslims. In Lower Assam, Ajmal’s AIUDF won 13 of 50 seats in the 2011 assembly elections. The Congress could win just 16 seats in this part of the state, despite doing exceedingly well in other regions.

In fact, Ajmal’s rise in Assam politics has considerably reduced the Congress’ clout among Muslims who account for 34 percent of the state’s population, and 9 of the 32 districts are Muslim-majority. If the AIUDF manages to retain its hold over Bangla-speaking Muslims, it will be disadvantageous for the Congress, especially in lower Assam.

The third front, an unknown factor in Tamil Nadu, is where the incumbent and the challenger may have a real tough time. The state has a history of one of the Dravidian parties – DMK or AIADMK – getting power after an interval of five years. Smaller parties have always preferred to ally with either of the two dominant players.

This is the first time voters will have a third front to contend with. What this means is dilution of opposition unity. It may result in a coalition getting a majority of seats with a modest vote share of less than 40 percent. Or the third front may ensure the rare outcome of a hung assembly, something the state has not seen in decades.

The growing clout of woh – even in states where it did not exist before – says something about people’s perception of the incumbent and the challenger.

(The writer is Consulting Editor, Business Standard, and contributes regularly to The Quint on politics and contemporary issues)