The state of Uttar Pradesh will play a make-or-break role in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with the fortunes of the Mahagathbandhan (that is, an SP and BSP combine) determining whether the NDA will win a majority in the country or not. This is the prediction of the latest CVoter-State Of The Nation October 2018 survey, just months before the general elections in 2019.
Predicting NDA's vote share to be 38 percent and seat share to be 300 without the Mahagathbandhan in UP, the survey also notes that this is lower than the 41 percent vote share and the 335 seats which it had predicted in January 2018.
This, it says, is due to several factors, including the TDP breaking ties with the NDA, the Shiv Sena deciding to go solo, the successful experimentation of the Mahagathbandhan in UP, and the materialising of the JD(S)-Congress alliance in Karnataka.
The Importance of UP
The survey – taking into account political equations as on today – predicts that without the Mahagathbandhan in UP, the NDA would be able to get 300 out of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. The UPA would get 116, while Others would get 127. The 300 mark of the NDA would be well above the majority mark in the Lower House.
However, the equation would change if the Mahagathbandhan materialises in UP, that is, if the SP and BSP decide to come together. If that is the scenario, then the NDA's tally would go down to 261 in the Lok Sabha, which is below the majority mark, the survey said. Meanwhile, the UPA is projected to get 119 seats and Others (which would include this Mahagathbandhan) would move up to 163 seats.
The Importance of Forming Alliances for Congress
The survey points out that the UPA would greatly benefit if the Congress has alliances with the various regional parties in four politically crucial states.
The UPA would get a majority within the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh if Rahul Gandhi’s party allies with the TDP, JD(S), NCP and the Mahagathbandhan respectively, the survey says.
The Best and Worst Case Scenarios for UPA and NDA
The survey predicted that the UPA, in its best case scenario, would win 204 seats in the Lok Sabha, while the NDA would get 232 seats. Meanwhile, the Others would be able to win in 107 seats.
This best case scenario for the UPA would be made possible only if:
- The TDP and the Congress form an alliance in Andhra Pradesh
- The Congress and the JD(S) form an alliance in Karnataka
- Sharad Pawar's NCP allies with the Congress in Maharashtra, and the Shiv Sena does not go with the BJP, but contests alone.
- The Congress forms an alliance with the Mahagathbandhan in UP
In the case of such a verdict, regional parties like the DMK, the TRS and the YSRCP would play the key role in deciding who will come to power at the Centre.
On the other hand, in the best case scenario for the NDA, it would be able to garner 306 seats, below the 336 it got in 2014. The UPA, meanwhile, would get 108 seats and Others 129 seats. In this scenario, the BJP would also be able to get a majority on its own, the survey points out.
The best case scenario for the NDA would be made possible only if:
- The Shiv Sena decides to ally with the BJP and the NCP also allies with Congress in Maharashtra.
- BSP supremo Mayawati ditches the Mahagathbandhan and contests alone in Uttar Pradesh.
(With inputs from CVoter - State of the Nation Survey.)
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