Here’s Why Dividing OBCs With a Sub-Quota Is a Risky Move for BJP

Video Editor: Mohd Irshad Alam

Any idea how many castes we have in the country?

4.6 million, according to the unpublished 2011 caste census. Yes, 40 lakhs.

Assuming at least half of them are from the other backward classes or OBCs as they are called, that still leaves us with 23 lakh caste groups belonging to a rather amorphous but constitutionally mandated group called OBCs.

Classifying them according to the level of backwardness is going to be a huge challenge. And they have to be classified on the basis of social and economic backwardness. Yes, social and economic backwardness.

Now there is a proposal, of course with a view to get more votes, to have a sub-quota for most backward classes or MBCs within the overall quota for OBCs. Sounds confusing? Let me explain.

There is a proposal to have a sub-quota within the quota of 27 percent in government jobs for OBCs. What this means is that a block called OBCs will be divided into several smaller groups. The so-called ‘most backward’ among OBCs will have a fixed share within the overall quota and all the others can fight for the rest of the pie.

There is a commission looking into the issue and a set of recommendations is expected as early as next month. And going by what the Prime Minister said at a recent rally in Uttar Pradesh’s Baghpat, quota within quota is going to be a reality soon. Most certainly before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

What is so political about the move?

OBCs are assumed to vote together.

And there are parties which are seen to be carrying OBC tags. Lalu’s RJD and Akhilesh’s Samajwadi Party are the two best-known examples of such parties. Let me reiterate that these are assumptions. Now the BJP is trying to break the hold of such strong regional leaders over numerically large and politically influential OBCs.

Will the BJP’s gamble work? I have my reservations. Here are the reasons:

1. The implementation is going to be messy. As I said before, classifying at least 23 lakh castes into backward and most backward castes is going to be a huge task. If not done properly, there is bound to be backlash by the castes which are kept out of the newly created group of intended beneficiaries.
2. Data suggest that different OBC groups have been voting differently for a long time. All driven by apathy for or affinity towards proximate caste groups. It is unlikely that Yadavs, koeris and kurmis will vote together and that too for a particular party. And this applies to most OBC groups. The situation is unlikely to change just because of one decision.
3. There is a danger of convergence of dominant groups among OBCs. If that happens, the BJP will certainly be at a disadvantage.
4. Let us remember that the pie – that is, government jobs – has been shrinking all these years. The rules of reservation apply to only 18 percent of all jobs in the country. Only a few thousand jobs are up for grabs every year using the reservation route. Since the material impact of the decision on intended beneficiaries is going to be negligible, there is bound to more disappointment than euphoria.
5. Finally, the renewed caste debate that is bound to follow once the decision is announced will put all votaries of Hindu unity on the back foot. Remember Mandal puncturing the Kamandal rath in the 1990s? There is a danger of Mandal II doing the same all over again.