Speaking at the global climate change summit in Paris, Modi unequivocally told the developed world that it is their moral duty to steward initiatives to address climate change. He pointedly argued that it would be unfair for the Western world, who spearheaded their way through the industrial revolution and to economic prosperity by relying almost entirely on fossil fuels, to now stymie India’s development process.
At the outset Modi’s comments are fair. The rich nations who continue to be big carbon emitters ought to shoulder a greater burden in reducing the world’s carbon emissions as compared to checking the energy needs of the developing world who have not had their fair share of development. But a closer look reveals compelling caveats to this argument.
Terms of Negotiation
- India is the world’s third largest carbon emitter after the US and China
- One third of India is still without electricity
- Aspiration for upward economic mobility cannot be met without an overwhelming swell in energy consumption
- Modi’s best bet is not to make a case for a dependence on fossil fuels but to get the rich nations on board to implement cleaner energy sources
India’s Future Hostage to Climate Change Challenge?
The Indian subcontinent and China house half of the world’s population and India alone houses a seventh of the global population. For such numbers to equal Western lifestyles while relying on the use of fossil fuel will simply wreak havoc on the planet. While the last colliery in the UK closed recently, India is still heavily dependent on coal for its energy needs. Moreover, India at present is already the world’s third largest carbon emitter after the US and China, and this despite the fact that one third of India – over 300 million people – are without electricity.
What will the environmental consequences be when the increasing energy needs of the middle class are met and electricity reaches rural areas? This ought be the question at the epicentre of the climate change discourse pertaining to India. Modi’s promise of electrification of India lends urgency to the question of how India can steer its growth while being sensitive to our planet.
India’s Energy Needs Will Only Multiply
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During his visit to the UK last month, at his sell-out public address in London, Modi pledged electricity to 18,000 villages still in the dark. India’s energy needs, electorally speaking, are a non-negotiable factor. Modi knows this well. He fully understands that he cannot compromise on India’s energy demands which are conflated with ‘aspiration’ and aspiration is the card on which he rode his way to the Prime Ministerial Office. But aspiration for upward economic mobility cannot be met without an overwhelming swell in energy consumption.
This aspirational pulse that runs through India is fuelled mainly by the youth, who form a demographic that is unparalleled in the world. 65 per cent of the population is 35 or under while half the country’s population is less than 25 years of age. The youth, moreover, are not only aspirational but also impatient. Their impatient aspiration played a key role in voting Modi into office last year.
Feeding India’s Aspirations
Popular opinion proclaims that India experienced a shift that desired a more Hindu, nationalist version of itself, and Modi played victoriously to the gallery of this churn. Scratch the surface of the ‘churn’ and you find it is aspiration that trumps the moot point that religion and sectarianism worked in favour of Modi’s electoral mileage.
Aspiration is ubiquitous in India today and looking ahead, energy consumption will be inexorably avaricious to meet the aspirations of millions.
Balancing Development and Carbon Footprint
As India grows together with China, the developed world will by default account for a dwindling share of global carbon emissions. India then, by design, must set and meet stringent carbon emission targets if our planet is to be saved. Yet the ground reality in India is very desensitised to environmental issues. The awareness on climate change is very poor, if not absent, among the majority of the people. The cities are choking with pollution-emitting cars, giving the impression that despite India’s humungous population cars outnumber people on the streets.
How to Get Developed Nations on Board
The trend of increasing energy consumption is unavoidable and with this India will compete with China to overtake the US in becoming the world’s foremost polluter. Unless, the wealthy nations, instead of putting roadblocks to India’s fossil fuel use assume a more enabling role that actively supports India in managing the effects of climate change. This includes contributing towards education, that is, making the citizenry better informed about climate change and more importantly, making new technology more accessible and affordable – delivering on these measures will be key to determining the outcome of meeting the climate change targets being set in Paris.
Succinctly put, Modi’s best bet to ensuring a fairer deal for India is not to postulate to wealthy nations on managing their energy needs or making a case for a dependence on fossil fuels but rather to get the rich nations on board to implement cleaner energy sources. At stake are the aspirations of 1.2 billion people and a planet that seven billion humans and billions of species call home.
(The writer is a political and economic analyst.)
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