Oscar 2017: Our Predictions on the Big Winners This Year

Here are our picks on who will walk home with the Oscars this year.

As they say, this is the time when men and women in Hollywood pining for the golden man will have an unbeatable ecstatic expression when cradling ‘him’ in their hands. Like we did with the Golden Globe Awards, here’s looking at the stars who are poised to win and names that have the possibility to upset at the Academy Awards this Sunday night in Los Angeles.

Best Picture

• Arrival
• Fences
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• Hidden Figures
• La La Land
• Lion
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

The Buzz: Despite the recent backlash towards the vapidity of La La Land, this musical has won the BAFTA, the DGA, the PGA, and a few other foretaste trophies, not to forget a record number of seven Golden Globes. And it is grinning wide with both Titanic and All About Eve for scoring the most nominations in the history of the Academy Awards. Also, don’t forget Hollywood’s tendency to honour films which are about showbiz, portraying the movies as this mythical magical land where mere mortals can fulfill their dreams. The momentum is too much to ignore, and this year, too, Hollywood will pat the back of its narcissism. Remember The Artist’s sweep in 2011?

Possible Upset: The only other film that poses a competition to Damien Chazelle’s tepid artistry is Moonlight. In the light of Donald Trump’s bigoted administration, angry voters might honour the film about a poor black man who is gay and American, as a symbolic salute. Also, in three of the past four years, the Best Picture went to films that were political in nature – Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave and Argo. That’s a strong symptom to ignore. For me, Moonlight ought to win quite simply because it is the best movie in the whole stable.

Best Director

• Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
• Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
• Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

The Buzz: Three of the past four Best Director trophies went to films that did not win Best Picture. The past few wins also suggest the Academy’s tendency to honour auteurist traditions. If that’s a sign, Barry Jenkins has all the right reasons to be in the company of Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Alfonso Cuarón, and Ang Lee. Because Moonlight is a film that signals the arrival of a major directorial talent with a socio-political spine.

Possible Upset: Who else but Damien Chazelle? The conjurer of La La Land’s musical tapestry is winning awards left right and center, and he is the only one who can snatch it from the rightful hands of Jenkins, just by riding the wave of Hollywood-esque nostalgia.

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling, La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington, Fences

The Buzz: Of the lot, Casey Affleck without a doubt gave the best performance – we aren’t the only ones saying that, the critics and audiences agree. In fact, all was going well for Affleck, until the SAG Award was clinched by Denzel Washington for his splendid fireworks in Fences. Washington won a Tony too for the same role in the past and has a strong aura of goodwill in Hollywood. Too add to Affleck’s woes, the allegations of sexual harassment and related lawsuits probably mean higher chances of discouraging voters. So Affleck’s loss may just turn out to be Washington’s win.

Possible Upset: Since the competition is between Affleck and Washington, if the latter fails to win for his self-directed performance, you know who will.

Best Actress

• Isabelle Huppert, Elle
• Ruth Negga, Loving
• Natalie Portman, Jackie
• Emma Stone, La La Land
• Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

The Buzz: Emma Stone with her wide eyed singing and dancing in La La Land has won hearts, and secured almost every award. And there is little to suggest that the Academy would do otherwise. But she faces stiff competition from French veteran Isabelle Huppert who is the sole driver of Elle, displaying a certain courage and control very few actors are capable of. Mind you, Huppert has won Golden Globes for her performance, and the Hollywood press is going gaga over her. The Academy might honour the veteran this time, serving as a lifetime-achievement award for an audacious and well-deserved performance. Add to that, sex sells and actors in affected dramas are preferred way over musicals. So Isabelle Huppert it is.

Possible Upset: If Huppert fails, and Stone wins, like she has done in the past few months, it will also establish Hollywood oiling its new monarchs. Sigh.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea
• Dev Patel, Lion
• Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

The Buzz: Moonlight is lit by wondrous performances and all the three actors who played Chiron deserved nominations in this category along with Mahershala Ali. However, Ali’s performance as the drug dealer is the very heart of Barry Jenkins’ masterpiece, and his presence is so vital in the film that you keep wishing he’d return. Add to that, he has been a wonderful presence in a pack of films last year (Kicks, Free State of Jones and Hidden Figures), and his SAG speech was stirring. Though he missed the Golden Globes and BAFTA, he stands the strongest chance to lift the golden statuette.

Possible Upset: This looks like Ali’s year, but a possible upset may arrive in Dev Patel who won a BAFTA or Lucas Hedges, the youngest in the category. But Patel or Hedges seem like distant possibilities.

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis, Fences
• Naomie Harris, Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman, Lion
• Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea

The Buzz: It's an Oscar landmark that three black actors are competing in the same category. But Viola Davis’ nomination comes across as inexplicable because the length of role easily qualifies for a best actress nod. This is Davis’ third Oscar nomination and this time, she has already won major awards including BAFTA, Golden Globes, the SAG award. Playing off her co-star Denzel Washington, she is both gregarious and tender as Rose, the kind of actorly performances that Hollywood adores. She is good with her speeches, and everyone knows she deserves it. This is her year.

Possible Upset: It’s very unlikely that Davis will lose, but if she does, it will be to Naomie Harris or Michelle Williams.

(The writer is a journalist and a screenwriter who believes in the insanity of words, in print or otherwise; he tweets @RanjibMazumder)