A series of events in the past couple of days bear testimony to the ups, downs and unpredictability in the fortunes of the Punjab Congress. The party may have stemmed its slide by replacing Captain Amarinder Singh with Charanjit Channi in the chief minister's chair but the instability has continued.
ADVOCATE GENERAL REMOVED, WIN FOR SIDHU
On Tuesday, 9 November, Punjab Congress president Navjot Singh Sidhu scored a major victory after the state cabinet accepted the resignation of Advocate General APS Deol. Sidhu had been gunning for Deol as he had earlier represented controversial cop Sumedh Saini, accused in the 2015 Bargari sacrilege and Behbal Kalan firing cases.
Alleged inaction in the probe into these cases, in which the Badals are also accused, was one of the major reasons behind the Congress replacing Captain Amarinder Singh with Charanjit Singh Channi as the chief minister of Punjab in September. Sidhu was at the forefront of the attacks on the Badals, Saini and Captain on this issue therefore his adamancy on APS Sidhu's removal wasn't surprising.
A day later, on Wednesday, senior Congress leader Sunil Kumar Jakhar took a dig at his own government and tweeted, "Whose government is it anyway?".
AAP MLA JOINS CONGRESS
Barely a few hours after Jakhar's quip, CM Channi and Navjot Sidhu put up a united front as they welcomed Aam Aadmi Party MLA from Bathinda Rural Rupinder Kaur Ruby into the Congress. She had resigned from AAP a day earlier.
There are multiple reasons behind Ruby's defection. Sources in the Aam Aadmi Party say that Ruby had become increasingly unpopular in her constituency and would have been denied a ticket - this became clear to her and that's why she quit.
The second reason being given is her proximity to Punjab AAP chief and Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann. Apparently, there is some resentment among Mann and his supporters that he hasn't yet been declared as AAP's CM candidate in Punjab, despite being the party's most popular face in the state.
"I quit the party because the party leadership wasn't projecting Bhagwant Mann as its CM face despite being the choice of most of the party workers," Rupinder Ruby said after joining the Congress.
The Congress had just begun celebrating Ruby's induction and the Channi-Sidhu show of unity, when its MP from Anandpur Sahib Manish Tewari tacitly attacked Navjot Sidhu on Twitter saying, "(I) wish such politicians who perceive apolitical Constitutional functionaries as ‘soft targets’ to wage their proxy warfare find a better way to do their politics".
The main questions are - how long will the party continue to speak in multiple voices and what impact will these have on its political fortunes in the state.
WILL CONFUSION HARM THE CONGRESS?
What's happening on social media does give a sense of a free-for-all within the Congress. On one hand there are Sunil Jakhar's cryptic, literary musings aimed at Sidhu, Channi and others. Then there are Manish Tewari and Ravneet Bittu's attacks on Sidhu and his supporters and Sidhu's own salvos at the Channi government.
If Twitter wasn't enough, the battle shifted to Instagram with the kin of Partap Singh Bajwa and Sukhjinder Randhawa battling it out on Insta-stories over government appointments.
Not all of this is harmful. Many of those criticising the present state of affairs don't have much of a base in Punjab and can't have an impact in more than one or two constituencies. This would be the case even if some of them end up joining hands with Captain's new party
However, the confusion harms the Congress in another way. It takes away attention from the one thing that's working in favour of the party - Chief Minister Charanjit Channi.
CONGRESS' TRUMP CARD
Channi is a clever politician and has presented himself as a 'common man CM' - something that achieves a double purpose. It creates a clear contrast with Captain Amarinder Singh and the Badals, who are seen as elite politicians and it also takes away the 'common man' tag away from AAP.
Not just that, Channi is also someone who has tried to maintain good ties with even his ideological opponents. Recently, he convened an all party meeting and invited even parties with no representation in the Assembly - such as Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar), known to be a staunchly Panthic party opposed to the Congress. At the meeting, Channi touched the feed of SAD (Amritsar) leader Simranjit Singh Mann.
In the cabinet, Channi is trying, with some success, to keep diverse factions in good humour - from Sidhu loyalists like Pargat Singh to erstwhile Captain loyalists like Brahm Mohindra, Vijay Inder Singh and Rana Gurjit Singh.
Channi was clearly in the anti-Captain camp in the last one year or so, but even after being removed, Captain remained more amenable to Channi than Randhawa or Sidhu.
Even now, Captain doesn't have anything negative to say about Channi and called him a "decent man". His friend Aroosa Alam too compared Sidhu and Randhawa to "hyenas" but said nothing negative about Channi.
During the tussle for Captain's replacement, Sidhu is said to have preferred Channi over Randhawa and considered him less of a threat.
Even outside the Congress, AAP and SAD are far more reserved in criticising Channi as compared to Sidhu or the Congress' central leadership.
WHAT LIES AHEAD?
Sooner or later, Sidhu may have to realise that the Congress can't afford to project anyone other than Channi as its CM candidate.
The best he can hope for is to work towards the party's victory and then, if it wins, try to become CM with the support of MLAs after elections.
However, the problem, party insiders say, is that Sidhu doesn't instinctively "think like a politician".
"Taking a step back for the sake of the party or even for the sake of his own future isn't something he can do," said a party leader.
This lies at the root of the instability in the party.
There is, however, one line of thinking in the Congress that Sidhu should be allowed to occupy the opposition space as it would contain the rise of AAP. The Sidhu-Channi tussle has robbed AAP of the headlines at least, if nothing else.
But this 'internal Opposition' arrangement is tricky and depends Sidhu striking a balance between criticism and cooperation. Achieving this balance is easier said than done.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)