Ever since BJP formed a full government for the first time in 1999, the lowest vote share that it has got was approx 19% in 2009 and the highest being about 31% in 2014. The range of shifters towards and away from BJP is 12% so far, though about 10% have shifted more actively — meaning that about 10% voters maybe up for grabs again in 2019.
However, what BJP is doing the last three years – that seems work well in keeping these voters – is that it is projecting itself as the moral high ground on self-prioritised national issues like patriotism, religion, terrorism etc.
It is also how the UP election was won – by bombarding voters with highly polarising whatsapp messages linking majority religion with nationalism. Moreover, steps like surgical strikes and demonetisation have improved BJP’s high ground score.
When a viewer from this 10% watches the Opposition questioning the surgical strike, they move closer to supporting the BJP because they feel strongly for the country – like citizens normally do against external threats.
This makes the Opposition appear opposed just for the sake of opposing, thereby diluting their argument.
So what can the opposition do here? It simply needs to score some moral high ground points. Although majority religion and nationalism are strong binders and influencers of what people will pay attention to, there are other tangible issues which influence people’s emotions and can change their priorities in front of the EVM differently.
Opposition leaders need to create a more pressing narrative for the greater good of our country. Here are 5 issues I think the Opposition can highlight.
Nationalism Means Politics of Jobs, Not of Beef
“TV pe hindu-muslim karaati rahi Sarkar, kahan gaye 6 crore rozgar?” I often wonder about the reaction such a hoarding might get on the Gurgaon-Delhi highway. Against BJP’s election promise of 2 crore jobs every year – which should have led to 6 crore new jobs in the last 3 years – only 1.35 lakh new jobs were created last year, lower than what the Manmohan Singh provided in his worst year.
The opposition needs to convey to people that the most patriotic politics is the politics of jobs. If there are no jobs, there is no country and no nationalism.
Besides unemployment being a genuine national concern, think about lakhs of Indian parents who shove their kids into IIT coaching centers in Kota and Kanpur. The jobs are drying up – cue the massive firing by IT companies.
There is nothing that a conservative, relatively ok-to-do voter fears more than no jobs. Even farm income households want their next generation to shift away – NSSO reports have been suggesting this for almost a decade now.
BJP’s Inaction on Spiralling Population
Another population explosion in India is as good as apocalypse, as it should because we are too many already. The only variables that are constantly related with population reduction are increase in literacy and improvement in healthcare.
It needs to be systematically highlighted that unless every government’s focus is on health and education, the population momentum that has slowed down may pick up again.
The opposition could highlight budget cuts in education as well as recent reduction in university scholarships. Then there is the issue of much-needed-but-hardly-available adolescent education.
While governments continue to advertise child spacing and delaying marriage, women continue to opt out of schools.
If this continues, the median age of marriage and first childbearing can gradually decrease. With a narrower age difference between two generations combined with increasing life expectancy, it is not unfathomable to have a lot more people living in the country than we initially extrapolated to be.
Moreover, NGOs like the Public Health Foundation of India who, by working on technical support on improving infant mortality and maternal care have somewhat slowed our population momentum so far, are under scanner now.
UN’s ‘medium’ level projects put India’s population to be around 1.7 billion in 2050. One could always imagine a scenario where the public health and education infrastructure remains static or even crumbles and this slowing population momentum picks up again!
No Food Soon Because Farmers are Either Dying or Protesting
There is hardly any big state where farmers haven’t protested in the last year. If farming is not profitable then who will produce our food? This scares the lower middle class most because incomes are not rising but food prices are. Once you start talking about this narrative, any price rise in foods and commodities will be linked with this fear. Remember farmers will protest again just a couple of months before the general elections because of the timing of harvesting season.
Nobody Will Invest in a Country With Out of Control Lynch Mobs
Nobody wanted to invest in Bihar 10 years ago because ATMs and private offices were frequently vandalised. The mob lynch brigade is already showing signs of not being under central or state government’s control. Will industries want to set up shop in the Hindi heartland if religiously diverse workforce is ready to kill each other?
Nothing will be safe and no one will invest in the country, making us look like failed African states amid religion and caste conflicts. Parents want a safe environment for companies who can give their kids some campus placements. There will be no companies nor any campus placements!
Own the Issue of Basic Income for Small Farmers’ Children
What is better than trying to take somebody on their narrative is building one of your own. When you build a critical narrative, you also put forward what you bring to the table.
A temporary minimum support income for youth from small farm households who want to shift to other occupation can be explored and offered by the Opposition. A safe non-polarised environment is good for jobs and opportunity, but the thought of an immediate tangible benefit that the Opposition can offer will be some respite for the unemployed masses.
Having suggested all of this, I highly doubt though that the divided Opposition will be able to own any narrative right now.
(The Author works as a political communications consultant and can be reached on twitter @heyanshuman.This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(We all love to express ourselves, but how often do we do it in our mother tongue? Here's your chance! This Independence Day, khul ke bol with BOL – Love your Bhasha. Sing, write, perform, spew poetry – whatever you like – in your mother tongue. Send us your BOL atbol@thequint.com or WhatsApp it to 9910181818.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)