Not many would disagree that three incidents had a colossal impact on Indian politics. These are: The imposition of emergency by Indira Gandhi in 1975, VP Singh’s tryst with Mandal commission’s recommendations in 1990 and demolition of Babri Masjid in 1992.
Emergency in 1975 polarised anti-Congress vote and Indira was voted out in 1977. However, Indira and Congress were able to salvage pride as the Janta Party that formed the government after 1977 general elections imploded badly. However, ramifications of the Mandal 1990 and Babri Masjid 1992 were long-lasting.
Mandal and Babri polarised and compartmentalised voters enormously, particularly in two biggest electoral states in the country, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Congress has been the biggest casualty of this change in political ecosystem.
Congress has been vying to secure a position among top three parties in these two states for long now, let alone be the main opposition party.
Caste-Based Politics on a Decline?
Here is a glaring example — it is after 30 years of Congress’ sweep in 1984, that in 2014, a single party, BJP, secured absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. There is a common reason behind these two triumphs.
In 1984, Congress won 83 out of 85 seats and in 2014, BJP-led NDA won 73 out of 80 seats in UP.
Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) took full advantage of caste-based politics, which evolved in the state post-Mandal episode and Babri demolition. Both these parties have been at the helm and continue to hold power in rotation for almost a decade-and-half now, pushing Congress and BJP out of contention.
SP has played the Muslim-Yadav card with immaculate perfection whereas Mayawati became a messiah among the Dalits (that went on to include Brahmins and Thakurs). The big question however, is whether this status quo would ever change in UP.
BJP’s tsunami in UP in the 2014 general election suggests that the equation is now changing in the state. However, the one counter argument is that the general election was fought on different sentiments and usual caste-based politics would again come to the forefront once state election is fought. I don’t agree with this.
The shift in pattern in UP has started. 2014 general election is a silver lining in a state which has been saddled with absurd caste-based politics for long. The rationale behind this argument is that at least some other sentiment (read Modi wave) could prevail among voters in UP apart from caste-based voting. Voters displayed some flexibility. Naturally the edifice of caste-based politics is losing sheen and strength in Uttar Pradesh.
Samajwadi Party, A Family Fiefdom
SP and BSP are finding it difficult to hold their sway. Mulayam had gone a little overboard with obsession for his family. The party has become a fiefdom of sorts. It took a heavy toll as infighting is now rife in SP.
Ageing and ailing Mulayam has a difficult task in hand to keep them together (he has become like Karunanidhi of north). Smugness of senior leaders like Azam Khan is only adding to the woes. Mulayam knows that decline has started, thick and fast.
The level of desperation is so high that Mulayam sent the likes of Beni Prasad Verma and Amar Singh to Rajya Sabha to garner some caste-based votes. Beni Verma has been the fiercest of Mulayam-baiters until very recently but opportunism supersedes everything after all.
Stories are doing the rounds in UP of how Mulayam has been reined in by Amit Shah through Yadav Singh scandal. Akhilesh is in fact trying to change the game by playing the development card but only few believe that his ‘vikas’ mantra is genuine.
Mayawati Running Out of Ideas
On the other hand, Mayawati’s despotism and over-centralisation has started hitting her and the party hard. Mayawati’s close aides are deserting her. Stories of tickets being sold are doing the rounds. She is even finding playing her Dalit card difficult as any such attempt may also result in counter-polarisation of non-Dalit votes as well.
That was the reason why Mayawati couldn’t drag the Una episode beyond a limit. She seems to be simply running out of ideas. Her usual rhetoric has become outdated and looks out of sync somehow. Mayawati was in pole position for the UP elections until two to three months ago but is losing advantage quickly, particularly after the Swami Prasad Maurya episode.
Apparently UP’s politics is heading towards a paradigm shift as both SP and BSP are losing base and political patronage, though it may not be visible clearly during the 2017 assembly election because it would be too early to write off SP and BSP at this juncture.
It’s up to the Congress and the BJP to grab this opportunity in UP. It is a golden chance for these national parties to regain the lost ground in the largest state of India. After all 25 years is too big a time period for an aftereffect to sustain, notwithstanding the viciousness of Mandal 1990 and Babri demolition 1992.
(The writer is an IIT graduate with passion for sports, history and politics and can be reached at @pankajag1973. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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