At G20, Xi Jinping-Shinzo Abe Talks Will Interest the World

Will the territorial disputes around South China Sea impact China-Japan talks during G20 meet, asks Amrita Jash.

On 4-5 September, China will spread the red carpet for the summit meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) nations and economies in Hangzhou, Zhejiang.

In this grand diplomatic endeavour, one of the most anticipated event on the sidelines of G20 will be the unfolding of the bilateral talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Given the recent diplomatic tensions between China and Japan over the East China Sea, the talk is not a certainty.

With the continuous escalation of tensions, talks have become a necessary to contain the discord. In view of this, according to the diplomatic protocol, Xi will meet the leaders at G20, but there exits an uncertainty over Xi’s meeting with Abe within the protocol framework.

This is mainly attributed to the frosty equation between China and Japan, wherein an inability to reach a consensus can effectively downplay the Xi-Abe talks.

Given the uncertainty over the anticipated talks, Chinese analyst, Zhou Yongsheng states,“China does not have a very strong momentum to engage in serious talks with Japan.” He further contends that, “For Beijing, the development of Sino-Japanese ties over the past two years shows that things could easily turn sour regardless of what agreements have been made in previous talks.”

Discord between China-Japan

Since the normalisation in 1972, China-Japan relations have been significantly weighed down after a period of thaw in the diplomatic ties. The episodes of controversies over Yasukuni shrine, history text books, chemical weapons from World War II, Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute and others have severely damaged the stability in the relationship.

At the same time, the nationalist public sentiment in both countries have further augmented the discord between the two countries. This has led to increasing mutual distrust and suspicion between China and Japan, leaving no room for compromise. Of which, the most circumstantial evidence is the rising tensions in the East China Sea which has become the flashpoint of an accidental risk. With each country testing the other’s resolve in the East China Sea, the risks of an unintended armed conflict have raised concerns. At this juncture, the Xi-Abe talks could be the most promising confidence building measure to avert such a tragedy.

Given this potential risk of confrontation, conventional liberal wisdom suggests that economic interdependence between states enhances peaceful relations, as French economist Frederic Bastiat said: “If goods don’t cross borders, armies will”.

Applying this logic to China and Japan, as their annual bilateral trade is worth more than US$300 billion, this does impose a limit to the chances of a military conflict between China and Japan. Besides, a confrontation is also not in the rational calculus for either Xi, who is pushing for reforms to sustain the stability in China’s growth, or Abe, who is making all efforts to reignite Japan’s economic stature.

Uneasiness Prevails

In such a scenario, the central question is, “Will a breakthrough happen in the 2016 G20?” This remains highly questionable, given the weakening of the diplomatic environment necessary to stage the talks.

To note, China’s warm welcome to Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida in April 2016 signalled the sincerity of the two countries in improving the diplomatic ties. This diplomatic push marked a preparatory move by both China and Japan to lay the groundwork for the Xi-Abe talks at G20.

However, the conducive dialogue atmosphere witnessed a downturn given the successive cancellations of the foreign ministerial meetings, which are meant to pave the way for Xi-Abe Talks. Recently, China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi delayed his trip to Tokyo for the Trilateral Foreign Minsters Meeting among China, Japan and South Korea owing to “no agreement on how to handle Diaoyu Islands dispute”.

Although Wang Yi participated in the trilateral meeting but an uncalled delay based on the sovereignty row reflects the uneasiness between China and Japan. Previously, China had also cancelled Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Kong Xuanyou’s official visit to Japan following Tokyo’s protests over China’s increasing military posture in the disputed islands. In this scenario the questions that need deliberation are: Why did China call off the diplomatic talks? What does these cancellations suggest?

These sudden call-offs in diplomatic talks are symbolic in representing the downturn in the Sino-Japanese ties. These incongruities demand careful considerations. Undoubtedly, these diplomatic manoeuvers mainly reflect the push towards improving the bilateral relationship ahead of the Xi-Abe talks in order to pursue a conducive diplomatic atmosphere.

However, the failure to reach a consensus even at the primary stages of the talks does signify the uneasiness in the relationship. These gaps in communication and intentions are likely to weigh down the conducive atmosphere, thus, diminishing the prospects of a face-to-face Xi-Abe dialogue.

With such a challenge in hand, it becomes imperative for both China and Japan to set aside the discord and turn the odds in favour by making the Xi-Abe talks a reality. This high-level engagement is the need of the hour to tone down the heat in the diplomatic ties.

(Amrita Jash is a Doctoral Candidate in Chinese Studies at the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She is also the Editor-in-Chief at IndraStra Global, New York. She can be reached at: @amritajash. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)