Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s famous line Mera Kislay Kahan Hai (where is my Kislay) at an election rally in Patna ahead of the February 2005 Assembly elections in Bihar best captured the mood of the state, which had by then become synonymous with lawlessness. The kidnapping of a school boy, Kislay had hit the collective psyche of the state. There was a 23 percent rise in kidnappings for ransom in 2004 compared to the previous year. The number of cognisable offences saw a jump of more than 15 percent in the same period. Lawlessness had come home to roost and Vajpayee’s statement triggered a response from the state’s electorate. The elections that followed saw the then ruling party getting just 75 out of the 243 Assembly seats and the process of unwinding of the Lalu Prasad-Rabri Devi regime began.
That was perhaps the first election in Bihar that saw the issue of law and order playing a key role in deciding the electoral outcome.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to do an encore this time by constantly harping on the danger of Jungle Raj II. Additionally, the BJP has also started attacking the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) government by saying that there has been a deterioration in the law and order situation in the state after the BJP-JD(U) split.
Big Fight Over Crime Data
As reported by The Quint, a report published by the Public Policy Research Centre (PPRC), a think-tank headed by BJP Vice President Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, claims that crime figures have once again reached the “Jungle Raj” level in Bihar. The report says there has been a 21 percent rise in rape cases and 16 percent spurt in the number of kidnappings from the 2012-2013 period.
The number of cognisable offences, as a result, have gone up by 19 percent from 2012 to 2014, claims the report. The JD(U) has been quick to rebut the charges by saying that the report is based on “selective data” with an intention to distort the image of the state.
Jungle Raj?
- Increase in crime rate had become a major issue ahead of the 2005 Bihar Assembly elections
- Figures released from a think-tank headed by the BJP vice president suggests an increase in rape cases and kidnappings in the state from 2012-2013
- A study by Milan Vaishnav and Reedy Swanson suggests very little connection between law and order and electoral performance
- Jungle Raj II slogan fizzles on the very face of the BJP as the party has fielded candidates with criminal antecedents
Growth Impacts Electoral Outcome, Not Law and Order
The timing of the report suggests that the BJP is trying to make an issue out of the crime data. A recent study, however, will come as a disappointment for the saffron party. A new study by Milan Vaishnav and Reedy Swanson shows “only modest evidence of a negative connection between the murder rate (one of the leading indicators of the law and order situation) and electoral performance in the 2000s”. The research is based on an analysis of all assembly elections in 18 major states of the country from 1980 to 2012.
The study also shows that inflation has a negligible impact on electoral results, but economic growth does play a role and more so in the 2000s. Why is that? Milan Vaishnav’s explanation is that “voters reward economic performance that encompasses a variety of different policies. Generally when the overall health of the economy is good, people sense that the state is moving in the right direction.”
Caste of Crime
My own sense is that in a caste-ridden society like Bihar, even incidents of crime are looked at through the eyes of caste affiliations. A criminal for some is a hero for some others. He is seen as a protector and also the dispenser of benefits – tangible as well as intangible. He is seen as a substitute for the state. The criminalisation of politics, a process that seems to have been halted somewhat in recent years, has been the result of such a perception. In such a scenario, it is unreasonable to expect a positive correlation between the improved law and order situation and the growing winnability of a party that seems to be delivering that improvement.
Given the way things are, if the BJP wanted to have a meaningful impact of its Jungle Raj II jibe at Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad, it should have desisted from selecting candidates with criminal records. The party, on the contrary, has fielded more tainted candidates than others. What is worse, the BJP’s own members have accused the party leadership of selling tickets to criminals. If that is true, is it any different from the Jungle Raj? No wonder then that people are not convinced about the party’s Jungle Raj II slogan.
(Mayank Mishra writes regularly for the Business Standard.)
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