Modi, Nitish – Don’t Mess with Bihar’s Women Voters

Could Bihari women cut across Bihar’s myriad caste denominations and emerge as a solid vote bank?

Forty-six percent of the total voters in Bihar are women. The gap between the number of men and women who turned up to vote reduced to three percent in the 2010 state elections. While Nitish may have a first-mover advantage when it comes to wooing the women electorate of Bihar, BJP President Amit Shah is not too far behind in recognising the need to push the Centre’s women-centric schemes.

In effect, both Modi and Nitish may well be competing to capitalise on the single factor that has the potential to cut across Bihar’s myriad caste denominations.

Another reason why the two cannot afford to ignore the female constituency is the fact that more Bihari women than men voted in the last General Elections. 58 percent women voters got inked as opposed to 55 percent men, a first for a predominantly patriarchal society like Bihar.

But Can Women Alone Affect an Election Outcome?

“One cannot say for certain unless this gap is at least 5%”, says senior psephologist Professor Sanjay Kumar in a conversation with The Quint.

If we look at the trend, in the last two elections, we’ve seen a higher turnout of women voters both in the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha election. But an impact will be visible only if women vote for a single political party.
— Professor Sanjay Kumar, Director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies to The Quint

Among Women in Bihar, Nitish has the Edge

A National Election Study conducted by Lokniti CSDS after the 2014 Election, and published in The Indian Express earlier this month, shows that while an equal number of men and women voted for the NDA and the RJD, more women (18%) than men (14%) voted for Nitish’s JD(U). A pre-poll survey by the same organisation indicates that more women than men thought Nitish could become the Prime Minister and that he would make a good leader.

However, Nitish’s JD(U) could do little to stop the Modi wave in the same election. The BJP won an astounding 22 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, reducing JD(U) to 2 seats.

But again, determining whether women voters have made an impact is a challenge when a Mahagatbandhan (Grand Alliance) like that between the JD(U), RJD and Congress is in the fray.

Does Lalu Make a Bad Wingman?

Lalu as a component of this Grand Alliance could pose a challenge to Nitish who was the first to identify women as a constituency in Bihar. In 2006 he rode to power on promises that included bicycles for school girls – a tall order considering the law and order situation at the time – and 50% reservation for women at the Panchayat level.

The alliance with RJD leaves Nitish’s ‘good governance’ record vulnerable to Modi’s shrill ‘pro-development’ pitch. Despite being a crowd-puller who’s kept reserved as the last speaker at rallies, Lalu is conspicuously missing from posters across the state. For one, the fodder scam convict threatens Nitish’s clean record. Second, the alliance would prefer to project a Nitish vs Modi fight as opposed to an array of leaders taking on the BJP’s vote catcher.

First-mover Advantage

So when Nitish agrees with the women who complained about alcoholism during a public function in Patna, it shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. With his office refusing to clarify, the Bihar Chief Minister who may not have been serious about imposing prohibition in his state, conveniently allowed the debate to flourish. In a trademark bold move, Nitish has also promised 35% reservation for women in jobs, if voted to a third term.

BJP’s Gender Disadvantage

Regardless of Amit Shah’s efforts, the BJP will still be playing catch-up with Nitish Kumar who first identified the women constituency of Bihar more than a decade ago.

“But the BJP is believed to have a more skewed support base that reflects in the gender gap as well,” according to Rajeshwari Deshpande who is Professor of Politics at the Pune University.

While analysing National Election Studies post the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, she wrote the BJP “faces a nearly 3% gender disadvantage among women voters at the all India level”. Speaking to The Quint, she elaborates her technical argument.

The BJP’s support base so far and even in the 2014 election is socially more skewed, that is, only certain sections of society are believed to have voted for the BJP. This socially skewed base also reflects in the gender gap because women from this relatively advantageous section of society will vote for the BJP. Meanwhile, Congress’ traditional voter base during the party’s dominance was more uniformly spread across social groups. Compared to BJP, the Congress had a more broad social base.
– Rajeshwari Deshpande, Professor of Politics at University of Pune to The Quint

Recognising this shortcoming, the BJP is seen to be hard-selling Central schemes like Pradhan Mantri Bima Suraksha Yojana, Sukanya Smridhi Yojana and the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao Andolan in Bihar.

Can Women Impact Poll Results?

A remarkable 49 percent of the 814 million eligible voters in India are women. 65.63 percent of women and 67.09 percent men cast their ballot to effect a change at the centre in 2014, narrowing the gap between male and female voters to a never-before 1.46 percent.

Yet women remain obscure as a political force and no party has made a serious effort to cultivate and consolidate the female vote bank.

Could this Bihar election change that? Psephologists may sound hopeful, but many political researchers still have their doubts.