Barring the Jana Sena Party (JSP), no other regional party from Andhra Pradesh contested the Telangana Assembly elections this time. Yet, the tremors of the Telangana verdict are felt in the neighbouring Telugu state.
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) seems to be triumphant over Revanth Reddy-led Congress winning in Telangana. Media reported TDP flags alongside Congress flags in the latter's victory celebrations in the state.
The TDP had decided to stay away from Telangana elections this season, despite local party leaders making preparations to enter the electoral fray. The party leadership was completely bogged down in Andhra Pradesh politics after the arrest of TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu.
Chandrababu Naidu had reportedly expressed apprehensions that the party would only make a poor show if it contests the Telangana elections. Perhaps, Naidu was apprehensive of the ruling YSR Congress exploiting a possibly debilitating performance of the TDP in Telangana. In fact, the YSRCP mocked Pawan Kalyan after his Jana Sena Party got decimated in the Telangana elections despite contesting in alliance with the BJP, which has substantially improved its vote share and seat tally.
Let's understand whether the Telangana verdict would alter the political landscape in Andhra Pradesh.
How Will BRS' Defeat in Telangana Impact Andhra Pradesh's Electoral Landscape?
1. The TDP-Congress Equation
The TDP is certainly happy with the electoral outcome in Telangana. A hostile government in the neighbouring state would create hurdles in ensuring poll management logistics for YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Meanwhile, Revanth Reddy was the working president of the Telangana TDP before joining the Congress. He continued to cherish his association with the TDP and Chandrababu Naidu despite being the Congress state president. His emotional proximity with the TDP helped him win as the Congress nominee in the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha constituency in 2019, which forms a part of Hyderabad. In fact, the TDP had won the seat in alliance with the BJP in 2014.
The TDP was part of the Congress-led grand alliance called 'Mahakutami' in 2018. The party won 15 Assembly seats in Telangana in alliance with the BJP in 2014 and two seats in alliance with the Congress in the 2018 Telangana Assembly elections. But the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (then Telangana Rashtra Samithi) poached most of the TDP MLAs.
In fact, BRS' K Chandrasekhar Rao used Naidu's association to rouse the 'Telangana sentiment' to attack the Congress in 2018. Political observers consider this factor reasonably significant in the defeat of the Congress-led grand alliance in 2018.
YSR Congress, led by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, immediately pulled out of Telangana politics post-bifurcation, though the party won an MP and three MLAs seats in the undivided Khammam district bordering Andhra Pradesh. Jgana was even opposed to the idea of his sister YS Sharmila entering Telangana politics.
On the other hand, TDP continued to be active in Telangana even after the bifurcation, much to the discomfiture of KCR. This is precisely the reason for the KCR-Naidu hostile relationship and Jagan's bonhomie with the BRS supremo. Therefore, the defeat of KCR is perceived by the TDP as a setback for Jagan.
Expand2. Will Welfare Schemes Help Jagan?
Interestingly enough, the TDP, which is longing for an alliance with the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, refused to join BJP-Jana Sena Party alliance in Telangana. The TDP has not even endorsed Jana Sena in Telangana elections despite having an alliance with it in Andhra Pradesh. Jana Sena contested eight seats, most of them falling in the areas that have considerable presence of TDP supporters. The YSR Congress has even attacked both the TDP and Jana Sena for the Telangana divergence.
Meanwhile, the TDP is using the BRS defeat to spin a narrative that anti-incumbency is also brewing in Andhra Pradesh. KCR lost the polls despite robust welfarism. YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is also investing his political stake in plethora of welfare schemes, which essentially mean direct transfer of money to the electorate.
In fact, there is growing discontent against Jagan over an alleged lack of development due to heavy emphasis on welfare schemes. The urban voters are disenchanted with the YSR Congress regime for a disproportionately heavy dose of welfare schemes leaving little resources for development.
The resentment against this model is evident in TDP sweeping graduate constituency legislative elections in the greater Rayalaseema region, which is considered to be the fortress of Jagan. Thus, the TDP is using KCR defeat to build a narrative that welfare schemes need not necessarily help Jagan to retain power.
Telangana witnessed significant development along with welfarism, while Jagan is already facing criticism for pursuing welfarism at the expense of development.
Expand3. Impact on Alliances
However, the Telangana mandate is unlikely to impact alliance politics in Andhra Pradesh. Notwithstanding YSR Congress insinuations, the Jana Sena is unlikely to part ways with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh despite the latter not supporting its nominees in Telangana.
In fact, Pawan Kalyan already warned party leaders and cadres not to publicly express any antagonistic views on Jana Sena forging alliances with other parties. In a few constituencies, where both parties have strength, the local Jana Sena and TDP leaders are at loggerheads.
The YSR Congress is trying to present squabbles between Jana Sena and TDP in few areas in the context of Naidu not endorsing Pawan Kalyan nominees in neighbouring Telangana. This could be a shrewd attempt by YSR Congress to plant seeds of discontent in Jana Sena over TDP. But such efforts by YSR Congress may not bear fruit as Andhra Pradesh politics are not a function of Telangana politics.
Pawan Kalyan's alliance with TDP has its own rationale in Andhra Pradesh. The Jana Sena could only win one seat in 2019 when it contested without an alliance with any major party. Even Pawan Kalyan lost both the seats which he contested. The lone legislator of Jana Sena later defected to YSR Congress.
Pawan Kalyan is not ready to repeat this mistake, which he had publicly acknowledged. He wants his Jana Sena to have a strong presence in the AP assembly in 2024. He realises the fact that the index of opposition unity is critical to dislodge the formidable regime of YS Jaganmohan Reddy. Any division in the opposition vote would certainly benefit Jagan, who still enjoys the support of many castes and classes due to his adept social engineering and welfare politics. Therefore, Jana Sena wants even BJP to join TDP-Jana Sena alliance.
This is precisely the reason why Pawan Kalyan did not sever his ties with the NDA even after allying with TDP against the wishes of BJP. He still hopes that BJP will eventually join the alliance as the saffron party would not like to squeeze itself in a polarised contest between YSR Congress and TDP-Jana Sena alliance. Jana Sena joining BJP in Telangana is also an attempt to send a message to the Andhra Pradesh electorate that Pawan Kalyan still wants BJP to be part of the anti-YSR Congress alliance.
Expand4. What About BRS?
Meanwhile, the BRS is unlikely to make any impact in Andhra Pradesh political arena, especially after KCR losing its home ground. KCR had earlier formed the BRS unit in Andhra Pradesh, too, and expressed his desire to contest in the neighbouring state. But a hostile verdict would significantly halt KCR's national plans, leave alone entering Andhra Pradesh.
The BJP, which significantly improved its vote share and seat tally in Telangana, would certainly make a strong pitch to improve its chances in Andhra Pradesh. Despite BJP national leadership enjoying good relations with YSR Congress, the party is critical of Jagan's rule in Andhra Pradesh.
The Congress, enthused by impressive victory in Telangana, would certainly make every attempt to revive itself in Andhra Pradesh. But both the national parties have little chance of showing any impact unless they are part of an opposition grand alliance, as the ruling YSR Congress is against forging any alliances.
Thus, the impact of Telangana election results will be felt more in electoral discourse, perception, and narrative-building rather than in actual battlefield in Andhra Pradesh.
(Prof K Nageshwar is a senior political analyst, faculty member of Osmania University, and a former MLC. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)
Expand
The TDP-Congress Equation
The TDP is certainly happy with the electoral outcome in Telangana. A hostile government in the neighbouring state would create hurdles in ensuring poll management logistics for YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Meanwhile, Revanth Reddy was the working president of the Telangana TDP before joining the Congress. He continued to cherish his association with the TDP and Chandrababu Naidu despite being the Congress state president. His emotional proximity with the TDP helped him win as the Congress nominee in the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha constituency in 2019, which forms a part of Hyderabad. In fact, the TDP had won the seat in alliance with the BJP in 2014.
The TDP was part of the Congress-led grand alliance called 'Mahakutami' in 2018. The party won 15 Assembly seats in Telangana in alliance with the BJP in 2014 and two seats in alliance with the Congress in the 2018 Telangana Assembly elections. But the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (then Telangana Rashtra Samithi) poached most of the TDP MLAs.
In fact, BRS' K Chandrasekhar Rao used Naidu's association to rouse the 'Telangana sentiment' to attack the Congress in 2018. Political observers consider this factor reasonably significant in the defeat of the Congress-led grand alliance in 2018.
YSR Congress, led by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, immediately pulled out of Telangana politics post-bifurcation, though the party won an MP and three MLAs seats in the undivided Khammam district bordering Andhra Pradesh. Jgana was even opposed to the idea of his sister YS Sharmila entering Telangana politics.
On the other hand, TDP continued to be active in Telangana even after the bifurcation, much to the discomfiture of KCR. This is precisely the reason for the KCR-Naidu hostile relationship and Jagan's bonhomie with the BRS supremo. Therefore, the defeat of KCR is perceived by the TDP as a setback for Jagan.
Will Welfare Schemes Help Jagan?
Interestingly enough, the TDP, which is longing for an alliance with the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, refused to join BJP-Jana Sena Party alliance in Telangana. The TDP has not even endorsed Jana Sena in Telangana elections despite having an alliance with it in Andhra Pradesh. Jana Sena contested eight seats, most of them falling in the areas that have considerable presence of TDP supporters. The YSR Congress has even attacked both the TDP and Jana Sena for the Telangana divergence.
Meanwhile, the TDP is using the BRS defeat to spin a narrative that anti-incumbency is also brewing in Andhra Pradesh. KCR lost the polls despite robust welfarism. YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is also investing his political stake in plethora of welfare schemes, which essentially mean direct transfer of money to the electorate.
In fact, there is growing discontent against Jagan over an alleged lack of development due to heavy emphasis on welfare schemes. The urban voters are disenchanted with the YSR Congress regime for a disproportionately heavy dose of welfare schemes leaving little resources for development.
The resentment against this model is evident in TDP sweeping graduate constituency legislative elections in the greater Rayalaseema region, which is considered to be the fortress of Jagan. Thus, the TDP is using KCR defeat to build a narrative that welfare schemes need not necessarily help Jagan to retain power.
Telangana witnessed significant development along with welfarism, while Jagan is already facing criticism for pursuing welfarism at the expense of development.
Impact on Alliances
However, the Telangana mandate is unlikely to impact alliance politics in Andhra Pradesh. Notwithstanding YSR Congress insinuations, the Jana Sena is unlikely to part ways with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh despite the latter not supporting its nominees in Telangana.
In fact, Pawan Kalyan already warned party leaders and cadres not to publicly express any antagonistic views on Jana Sena forging alliances with other parties. In a few constituencies, where both parties have strength, the local Jana Sena and TDP leaders are at loggerheads.
The YSR Congress is trying to present squabbles between Jana Sena and TDP in few areas in the context of Naidu not endorsing Pawan Kalyan nominees in neighbouring Telangana. This could be a shrewd attempt by YSR Congress to plant seeds of discontent in Jana Sena over TDP. But such efforts by YSR Congress may not bear fruit as Andhra Pradesh politics are not a function of Telangana politics.
Pawan Kalyan's alliance with TDP has its own rationale in Andhra Pradesh. The Jana Sena could only win one seat in 2019 when it contested without an alliance with any major party. Even Pawan Kalyan lost both the seats which he contested. The lone legislator of Jana Sena later defected to YSR Congress.
Pawan Kalyan is not ready to repeat this mistake, which he had publicly acknowledged. He wants his Jana Sena to have a strong presence in the AP assembly in 2024. He realises the fact that the index of opposition unity is critical to dislodge the formidable regime of YS Jaganmohan Reddy. Any division in the opposition vote would certainly benefit Jagan, who still enjoys the support of many castes and classes due to his adept social engineering and welfare politics. Therefore, Jana Sena wants even BJP to join TDP-Jana Sena alliance.
This is precisely the reason why Pawan Kalyan did not sever his ties with the NDA even after allying with TDP against the wishes of BJP. He still hopes that BJP will eventually join the alliance as the saffron party would not like to squeeze itself in a polarised contest between YSR Congress and TDP-Jana Sena alliance. Jana Sena joining BJP in Telangana is also an attempt to send a message to the Andhra Pradesh electorate that Pawan Kalyan still wants BJP to be part of the anti-YSR Congress alliance.
What About BRS?
Meanwhile, the BRS is unlikely to make any impact in Andhra Pradesh political arena, especially after KCR losing its home ground. KCR had earlier formed the BRS unit in Andhra Pradesh, too, and expressed his desire to contest in the neighbouring state. But a hostile verdict would significantly halt KCR's national plans, leave alone entering Andhra Pradesh.
The BJP, which significantly improved its vote share and seat tally in Telangana, would certainly make a strong pitch to improve its chances in Andhra Pradesh. Despite BJP national leadership enjoying good relations with YSR Congress, the party is critical of Jagan's rule in Andhra Pradesh.
The Congress, enthused by impressive victory in Telangana, would certainly make every attempt to revive itself in Andhra Pradesh. But both the national parties have little chance of showing any impact unless they are part of an opposition grand alliance, as the ruling YSR Congress is against forging any alliances.
Thus, the impact of Telangana election results will be felt more in electoral discourse, perception, and narrative-building rather than in actual battlefield in Andhra Pradesh.
(Prof K Nageshwar is a senior political analyst, faculty member of Osmania University, and a former MLC. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)